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As many of you know I do enjoy the analytics of identifying which routes airlines evaluate and what they eventually choose – especially from London where slots are supposedly limited, a recent example being what Virgin Atlantic might chose now that they are joining Skyteam and have also obtained slots from KLM.
Over the years I have started a few discussions looking at what long haul routes BA might examine, but not actually had one of these in a while with Covid etc, so think now is the time to start another one!
In the last years there have been many major developments impacting BA – Brexit, Covid – resulting in the total withdrawal of their 747 fleet and of course many markets closed due to travel restrictions (Asia), War in Ukraine, impacting on flying over Russia, and in recent months market turmoil in the Uk, much reducing the value of the Pound and also reduced disposable income for many.
So where now that things are (fingers crossed) opening up do you think BA would be wise to be looking at from either LHR or LGW? Where are the opportunities for current market and the next 2-3 years?
Routes from the regions are very, very unlikely so please keep your suggestions to London.
Of course many routes have stopped – but could some come back? Suspended routes include Osaka, Seoul, KL, Muscat, Durban, Abu Dhabi and Damman.
Indeed with Brexit (not making a political point, but now not being able to recruit from a wider labour market, and IMO reckless job losses when Covid arrived and according to some seen as not being a desirable employer, with BA still being short staffed, CAN they actually really expand?
For example I was told by a savvy airline expert recently that BA does actually fly to Bangkok these days, but cargo only in the hold as they do not have the 14-16 crew needed to operate each wide-bodied flight.
And now that the Pound is much weaker versus the US Dollar, how will this impact on the allocation of aircraft, routes and crew? For example I see much less Orlando and Las Vegas flights, which are mainly UK point of sale markets.
Anyway, here are some of my thoughts to get the discussion started:-
US
Kansas (mooted before and I found the analytics very persuasive) – 4 x 788 per week ex LHR
Indianapolis – officially mentioned by BA before Covid – 4 x 788 per week ex LHR
Outside bets – St Louis (former BCal/TWA/AA route) or Cincinatti (Delta flew this years ago from LGW I recall and a pharmaceutical centre).longer shot – Albuquerque, NM
Central/South America/Caribbean
A big recent development is that the UK no longer needs nationals of Ecuador, Peru and Colombia to have a visa to enter the UK. This I think will really make a difference to demand. And given IMO a market which can support both Avianca and BA think Bogota is low hanging fruit.
Also pre-pandemic BA had started a route using 772 to Lima from LGW. Personally I think that was a lot of capacity and from the wrong airport, so I think there should be a tag flight (I know some of you do not get the benefits of these flights!). I suggest a LHR-Bogota-Lima -Bogota-LHR flight using 3 class 772 and crew resting in BOG – perhaps starting 3-4 times a week. At least try this and see how the markets prosper – perhaps Lima can have its own nonstop again after all.
Ecuador I do not think can justify a route yet and so Iberia can cover that, but I do think BOG and LIM can do very well for business, leisure and VFR traffic.
Panama City I have always mentioned. At least 4 weekly 788.
Brazil I do not think BA will go further into as I think Virgin will strike a deal with Latam.
BA have already announced new routes to Guyana and Aruba from LGW, but given many Caribbean currencies are pegged to the USD do not see much additional capacity being on offer, and of anything reductions, and allocating the resources to cheaper leisure markets.
Africa
I really think BA have missed many opportunities here, and think overall they will not give this continent much attention, but with Rwandair thinking to join Oneworld, a route their to connect to their growing hub, or at least a code-share, will be a great opportunity to benefit from their network in East, Central and Southern Africa.
I saw that BA is reducing Nairobi from 772 to 788 and wonder with VS joining Skyteam BA are anticipating more co-operation between VS and Kenya Airways.
But in the recent Virgin route thread a poster I always find insightful suggested Kinshasa, having seen substantial traffic from the UK there, so given that a few years ago BA had a very profitable route into Luanda, but suspended this when the oil price crashed, I think a triangle route could be very rewarding indeed:-
LHR-Luanda -Kinshasa-LHR 772 3x weekly.
Sharm-el Sheikh – Years ago BA operated 772 from LGW there – with beach holidays in the Americas becoming arguably more expensive, could this be a worth looking at reviving?
Asia
Asia is hard to plan for with some markets needing to fly over Russia and of course China is not very open yet. I see VS could tap into some markets here in conjunction with Skyteam partners, but do think BA should go back to BKK and also try a Phuket route. These markets would capture a premium leisure perhaps finding the Caribbean or Indian Ocean too expensive now. I think direct flights would prosper as I think many do not want to go via the Gulf on QR or EK etc.
So BKK daily with 789 and Phuket 3 x weekly on 788.
I hope KUL also comes back.Another factor not covered much above is VFR traffic – Virgin have really tapped into Pakistan and doing very well there. Are there other markets you think should be tapped into?
I look forward to your thoughts on which routes you think could be lucrative or at least worth evaluating, and of course any insight or believable rumours!
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