[Tom Otley]

A couple of interesting pieces about constraints in the widebody market.

The first is a Bloomberg piece, but can be read here without a subscription…

Why aircraft shortages will linger as travel roars back

https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/aviation/2022/12/29/why-aircraft-shortages-will-linger-as-travel-roars-back/

“The end result for the flying public is eye-watering fares, which could rise even further as business travel returns and more people are willing to treat themselves as they go on holiday abroad for the first time in years.”

It then provides context for this piece by Max Kingsley-Jones at Cirium, identifying further issues at British Airways..

BA’s widebody capacity conundrum

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/bas-widebody-capacity-conundrum-max-kingsley-jones/?trackingId=%2Fd0KtXfCQy2unz5jqUgeYQ%3D%3D

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Johnnyg, Bullfrog, cwoodward, sparkyflier, DavidSmith2

[andy]

British airways lacks many things that have become the norm for most other airlines, not least a decent amount of space in business and first class .they are currently in the process of changing the seats in business class,this seems to be taking so much longer than you might expect,and when you read a little more information you realise that none of the Gatwick based aircraft are being changed until the Heathrow fleet are completed. That may seem acceptable ,until you book a flight from Gatwick based on the news of a decent seat by the end of the year only to find that when you go to pick your seat they are still eight across, meaning that you could end up face to face with a covid ridden passenger and no real escape. I have decided to cancel my trip to Antigua , and book a trip with another airline to a different destination, many great hotels in Asia.

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Bullfrog

[cwoodward]

There are 5 Malaysian A380s available that are currently sitting in France and looking for a buyer – and they are very cheap which should suit BA !

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tomwjsimpson

[AMcWhirter]

Much-needed wide-body capacity landed at LHR today … direct from the Boeing plant.

Another seven B787-10s are set for delivery in the future.

The fifth Boeing 787-10 for British Airways is heading to London @HeathrowAirport from #Charleston tonight.@British_Airways @BoeingAirplanes 787-10 G-ZBLG is due into Heathrow Airport at 08:50am local time.

Stats:
In Service: 4
En route for delivery: 1
Remaining: 7
Total: 12 pic.twitter.com/BGSTeGKJIU

— Mohammed Firaas Naeem (@mofiraas) December 30, 2022

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Bullfrog

[tomwjsimpson]

They always had an interest in more A380’s but not at the full asking price!

[AMcWhirter]

[quote quote=1334661]They always had an interest in more A380’s but not at the full asking price!

THANKS|[/quote]

Indeed. There’s a separate Forum post about Lufthansa returning some of its A380s to service.

One or two have already departed storage in Teruel in eastern Spain for Frankfurt.

Lufthansa has eight A380s stored at Teruel. Four in total will be reactivated over the coming weeks and months for deployment in summer 2023.

Reports from Germany now say Lufthansa may return more to service (depending on demand) and that it might even retrofit them with the latest seating (the latter is a costly task according to Air France).

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tomwjsimpson

[RoyJones]

With the Boeing 777X two or three years away, capacity is going to be a challenge for all airlines. The largest aircraft being built at the moment is the A350-1000 and that hasn’t got the capacity of the 747-400, now nearly all retired. QATAR are probably in the worst position as Airbus will not do business with them. IAG need to grab any available RR powered A380s as Heathrow slots will soon be unavailable (if the are not already) as potential travellers are bound to increase.

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Bullfrog, tomwjsimpson

[Tom Otley]

It seems like most conversations quickly come around to the cost of flights at the moment… and so we ended up circling round to the lack of capacity at BA.

I was told that when British Airways retired the B747s and A380s, that was 31% of its long haul capacity (21% for the B747s and 11% for the A380s).

At the time, people were predicting it would take years for demand to come back – Heathrow was predicting 2027 etc…

But as we know, demand did bounce back more quickly than many of the airlines (and airports) expected.

BA thought by the time it came back, it would have its new B777X aircraft. But these are now delayed until at least 2026-28.

BA is close to the front of the queue for the aircraft – 18 of the 777-9 and 10 of the B777-10, with options for another 24, so 42 in total.

But since we are at the beginning of 2023, that’s still a good 3 years to wait for the first one to be delivered (if it is lucky).

So in the meantime, capacity will be constrained…

[MartynSinclair]

What is the current position of all the wide bodies remaining in storage (if indeed they are still in storage). I realise there is ca. six month lead in time to ready a hibernated aircraft, combined with the complex economics of commercial aviation & aircraft branding etc, but is the solution for demand only in the supply of new aircraft?

[cwoodward]

Cathay will perhaps cancel the order and purchase 777 freighters instead.
There is talk of a 4 class A350 order and the airline is very committed and happy with the 40 plus now in the fleet
The 777X delivery schedule is very much still an unknow quantity.

[Tom Otley]

Bloomberg piece

Airlines Resurrect Ancient Jumbo Jets to Meet First- and Business-Class Demand

The fuel-inefficient 747 and A380 are being resurrected, thanks to their large numbers of premium seats.

[AMcWhirter]

Sadly the Blomberg news is behind a strict paywall.

Not sure whether its copy mentions the four-engine A340-600s.

I say that because Lufthansa is to restore all 10 of its stored fleet to service in second quarter 2023.

Originally it was thought that five only would be reactivated.

Five A340-600s will be based at FRA with the other five allocated to MUC.

[cwoodward]

Lufthansa has been flying the 340-600 into HK daily for the past aprox 5 months.

For many years Cathay flew the A340 down to NZ daily and I always enjoyed the trip.

[AMcWhirter]

[quote quote=1336369]Lufthansa has been flying the 340-600 into HK daily for the past aprox 5 months.[/quote]

Thanks for pointing this out cwoodward.

I ought to have checked a piece which Mark wrote in June 2021.

At that time it mentioned that five A340-600s would be returned to service.

Lufthansa to reactivate five A340-600s

However very recently Lufthansa decided to reactivate a further five A340-600s.

There is confusion with the news as aviation media reports indicate that 10 aircraft are being reactivated. I assumed they were all being removed from storage at the same time … it’s an easy mistake to make.

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/lufthansa-to-bring-back-all-stored-airbus-a340-600s

Finally I didn’t check every single FRA-HKG Lufthansa flight but what I found this month is that the airline is using its older and smaller A340-300s on the route.

[cwoodward]

Lufthansa the 340 some days other a larger aircraft sometimes also a daily freighter. Alex.

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AMcWhirter

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