[GivingupBA]

[postquote quote=999257][/postquote]

That’s right, SimonS1, I too would like to see the evidence

Meanwhile an article in THE LANCET calls for open borders (and not just for cargo flights):

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30967-3/fulltext

[canucklad]

[quote quote=999262]Can you give us a source where we can see this? How many lives have been lost directly as a result of UK borders being open?

That’s right, SimonS1, I too would like to see the evidence[/quote]

I’m deliberately going to be simplistic here, especially when trying to understand how it spread in the UK, and in light of the quarantine actions put in place now that 30K + of our fellow citizens have sadly sacrificed their lives.

As an island nation , when & how did Covid arrive ?
Sarcastically , I’m assuming a migrating bird passed it on , maybe a Canada Goose ?

Three words come immediately to mind — Horse – Gate– Bolt

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PeterCoultas, ASK1945, MartynSinclair, fatbear, JETHROTULL55

[MartynSinclair]

[quote quote=999257]How many lives have been lost directly as a result of UK borders being open?[/quote]

I would turn the question around and ask how many of the 36,000 deaths or 250,000 infections, in the UK could/may have been saved by having some form of border control/medical checking before entering the UK? The reality is these questions and many more, can only be answered at some future point and probably by the next generation of experts, with ‘hindsight’ being quoted as medical and scientific evidence evolves.

The Lancet article supports what most of us have been saying about the importance of allowing cargo flights and essential emergency equipment the freedom to move around the world. I have enough colleagues and friends continually circumnavigating the world, delivering essential cargo and personnel, not only for the less well known cargo airlines but also by some very well known airlines who are using passenger aircraft (seats remaining in) to move goods.

The Lancet article, published on 25th April 2020, includes a quote from Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, “There is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade”. (quote dated 30th January 2020). Well, according to WHO / the Lancet, there appeared nothing wrong with us all travelling up to 25th April.

The UK (up until this morning 22nd May 2020) still appear to be the only country in the world having no medical / restrictive checks at their borders. Perhaps it is a case of the UK are doing it the right way & the rest of the world are wrong….. The UK may finally decide to bring in a form of border control, (at some future date) just as the rest of the world may be easing theirs….

[quote quote=999271]Three words come immediately to mind — Horse – Gate– Bolt[/quote]

spot on Canucklad

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PeterCoultas, JETHROTULL55

[SimonS1]

[quote quote=999271]As an island nation , when & how did Covid arrive ?
Sarcastically , I’m assuming a migrating bird passed it on , maybe a Canada Goose ?

Three words come immediately to mind — Horse – Gate– Bolt[/quote]

How did it arrive? Well the first recorded cases were in York in late January, but it seems to be widely suggested by medical researchers that the first infections may even have been at the end of last year. Both of course being well before any countries shut their borders.

Was that closing the gate after the horse had bolted? Well I don’t recall you or Martyn advocating borders were closed at that point. After all we can all look smart after the event….

[SimonS1]

[quote quote=999279]I would turn the question around and ask how many of the 36,000 deaths or 250,000 infections, in the UK could/may have been saved by having some form of border control/medical checking before entering the UK? The reality is these questions and many more, can only be answered at some future point and probably by the next generation of experts, with ‘hindsight’ being quoted as medical and scientific evidence evolves.[/quote]

Exactly that. At this point there is no research to prove it either way.

So the point made by MarcusGB that “Not to have closed the Borders has been a serious error, and has have cost many lives, as this virus was predominantly spread via people’s travel” is just conjecture, as there is no evidence to support it, unless of course MarcusGB is a hidden virology expert in which case I’m surprised he has time to post here when his skills are badly needed elsewhere…..

[MartynSinclair]

[quote quote=999284]Exactly that. At this point there is no research to prove it either way.

So the point made by MarcusGB that “Not to have closed the Borders has been a serious error, and has have cost many lives, as this virus was predominantly spread via people’s travel” is just conjecture, as there is no evidence to support it, unless of course MarcusGB is a hidden virology expert in which case I’m surprised he has time to post here when his skills are badly needed elsewhere…..[/quote]

Equally there is no evidence to support by keeping borders open and unrestricted entry has not caused any of the 36,000+ deaths, except of course to see how the countries that have placed border restrictions have coped.

[SimonS1]

[quote quote=999289]Equally there is no evidence to support by keeping borders open and unrestricted entry has not caused any of the 36,000+ deaths, except of course to see how the countries that have placed border restrictions have coped.[/quote]

Agreed, there is no evidence either way at this point, nor indeed any conclusive analysis either way from other countries. I know the points made about HK, however reality is that the two countries are completely different in terms of size, population, number of airports etc.

So in the absence of anything conclusive, all that has happened is the status quo has been maintained.

[canucklad]

[quote quote=999283]Was that closing the gate after the horse had bolted? Well I don’t recall you or Martyn advocating borders were closed at that point. After all we can all look smart after the event….[/quote]

You’re right — I’ve never been in favour of closing borders, however the absolute short comings of our government and other western liberal governments in recognising what was going on in Wuhan has come back to negatively impact us all .
Although my anger with all this , is still firmly directed at a regime that has a proven track record of putting little value on life.
With the local regime being totally culpable in the premature deaths of , what horrifically could be in the millions plus —
We have all now experienced the consequences of living in a dictatorship !!

And , sorry to say this again, but if things don’t change and these Wet Market are allowed to continue with their barbaric virus propagating practices, then we’re only the flying time from that market away from our next PANdemic the clue in all this has always been the word PAN !!

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K1ngston, ASK1945, JETHROTULL55, capetonianm

[capetonianm]

recognising what was going on in Wuhan has come back to negatively impact us all .
….. a regime that has a proven track record of putting little value on life.
With the local regime being totally culpable in the premature deaths of , what horrifically could be in the millions plus —
……. but if things don’t change and these Wet Market are allowed to continue with their barbaric virus propagating practices

I suspect that the west and China are too far up each others’ orifices / dependent on each other for trade for this to happen, but I would love to see an embargo on all flights and tourism to/from China for a start, and a winding down of trade.

[SimonS1]

[postquote quote=999298][/postquote]

But that isn’t what your post said….your point was that as we are an island nation we could have prevented the arrival of Covid 19 had our borders been closed and by not doing so we were shutting the gate after the horse had bolted.

The reality of course is that no governments had border controls in place until early/mid March, nor was anyone on this forum calling for borders to be closed at that point either. It is easy to point fingers later on, of course.

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K1ngston

[canucklad]

Apologises Simon
You’re right I should have been clearer…..
I’m not for closing borders, IMO that would be counter productive , not least from an all things commerce perspective.

What really infuriates me, is that our devolved and national governments have had 10 weeks to organise and implement a tried and tested trace and isolate system of control
Which done effectively could have potentially eliminated the virus. Instead we’ve had 10 weeks of essential workers passing on the contagion., whilst the experts in any real sense have done nothing positive !

Now they want to control incomers by enforcing a 2 week self isolation period. Are they going to recruit an army of quarantine enforcers ?
Tail wagging the dog time again !! What really angers me, is the time that has been frittered away , whilst most of us complied with our house arrest !

The way they’ve managed the care homes can easily be seen as an allegory for the bigger picture .

[SimonS1]

[quote quote=999304]Now they want to control incomers by enforcing a 2 week self isolation period. Are they going to recruit an army of quarantine enforcers ?[/quote]

Indeed it seems total nonsense to me. Am I going to get a knock on my door in rural Sussex to check that I am at home? Really I doubt it. Still at least it panders to the Daily Mail types who think something must be done.

[MartynSinclair]

[quote quote=999306]Still at least it panders to the Daily Mail types who think something must be done.[/quote]

Ah, I see SimonS1, you have evidence it is only Daily Mail types (I am sure you will enlighten us) who believe “something must be done”?

I do agree with you about the UK’s quarantine arrangements – absolutely useless and unenforceable. The announcement had no gravitas about the implementation. All very indecisive with a feel of, we would appreciate very much if you would kindly down load an app before entering the UK….. and completing a form for us….

Perhaps read the attached published through Reuters. I trust you find the publication credible…

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vietnam-pilot/vietnam-determined-to-save-british-pilot-avoid-its-first-covid-19-death-idUKKBN22Q0V3

How have Vietnam achieved zero deaths and such a low infection rate. Sure the country is 36% larger than the UK, population equally larger. A country very close to China. On March 14th the country announced its borders were closing, March 15th implemented. May 22nd, country is virtually up and running, life as normal (except its borders remain closed).

At the other end of the scale, the UK continues it’s unrestricted open border policy, but is considering a quarantine plan soon, now the infection rate numbers are reducing. The current ‘cost’ 36,000 deaths and rising.

Looking at some of the parks in north London today, the games of football, large gatherings – I was sent video yesterday of another garden wedding with over 40 guests.

London has a real feel of an old fashioned bank holiday weekend, i.e. go enjoy yourself, but the shops are shut! It’s all way too casual.

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PeterCoultas, PeterCoultas, ASK1945

[SimonS1]

[quote quote=999311]Ah, I see SimonS1, you have evidence it is only Daily Mail types (I am sure you will enlighten us) who believe “something must be done”?

I do agree with you about the UK’s quarantine arrangements – absolutely useless and unenforceable. The announcement had no gravitas about the implementation. All very indecisive with a feel of, we would appreciate very much if you would kindly down load an app before entering the UK….. and completing a form for us….[/quote]

Definitely not only Daily Mail types in fact. But plenty of people making wild allegations (like the one from MarcusGB) which cannot be substantiated.

We definitely agree about the quarantine, unlikely people will be able to be tracked and I would have thought the most likely outcome is it will be very temporary.

Vietnam, good result, but culturally the UK is quite different, what works in a Marxist environment wouldn’t necessarily work here.

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ASK1945

[DavidGrodentz]

In the UK, it will never be possible to determine whether keeping the borders open or not would have helped keep the number of cases and deaths lower than the current level. No virus checks are done at the borders, no health declarations are taken so, where will the data come from?

Other countries have done it differently. And, sorry to keep banging on about HK but, for the 1064 cases here, everyone is listed on the HK Government Coronavirus website with details of whether they are imported cases, contacts of imported cases or local transmission. The data is readily available and updated daily

If HK, and other countries that are also tracking this data, are getting imported cases, it would be a safe assumption (but not proven by statistics in the UK) that not everyone coming into the UK is free of this virus and therefore capable of spreading the virus

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