[canucklad]

If Virgin join star could it be feasable that LH breand up a domestic feeder akin to Af cityjet and allocate some of their slots to Uk domestic. As I have said earlier the airline industry is rapidly evolving into a very limited choice based on Alliance super hubs aligned to old national carrier bias! The exception to this is the gulf carriers with their rather perplexing financial models that only work if your base airport. Is located near a vast desert!

[RichHI1]

My view is the joining of the Virgin FFP’s which just happened is a precursor to joining Sky Team. Virgin fits better there than *A. Delta has limited Uk routes and just shut Miami, ANA would compete to NRT.
Other option which could happen is Virgin get major investor from other overseas carrier.

[LPPSKrisflyer]

I’ve read somewhere in the last few days that Virgin are getting ready to integrate their brand on a global scale with a single FFP. In Australia they are ever more tightly linked to SIA and NZ and of course SIA still own 49% though they may wish they didn’t.

I agree that VS would have more to offer SkyTeam but they do seem to be growing closer to *A.

[RichHI1]

All true, though I have heard some say that SQ is closer to VS than it is to *A. Many Asian carriers operate in a more independent way in their alliances.

[Hippocampus]

I don’t see any tie-up happening between Virgin and Lufthansa. Virgin had been making noises about a three way deal between Lufthansa, bmi and Virgin ever since Lufthansa bought bmi and absolutely nothing came of it.

They have also been in discussions about joining SkyTeam and, again, nothing has come of it.

If Virgin wants to join an alliance it has to be prepared to do so on the alliance’s terms, which I think is part of the problem for them.

Meanwhile, Willie Walsh has called on Virgin to make good on its claim that it would launch services to Scotland:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/30/iag-ba-takeover-bmi-branson

“Walsh challenged Virgin, which had warned that domestic services would be lost in a BA-bmi merger, to step in. He said Branson’s airline, when still hoping to win bmi for itself, had pledged to Scottish politicians it would operate such flights. “I would expect Virgin to honour the commitments they have made. They have said they would start flights to Scotland. They now have the ideal opportunity.””

Virgin is now very isolated and it is of their own making. Like the transatlantic anti-trust immunity between BA and American, everyone expected it to be approved and Virgin’s opposition was futile and no-one took much notice of it.

[LPPSKrisflyer]

While I have no sympathy with Branson, I was always taught to be magnanimous in victory. Walsh on the other hand appears to be glorying in slaughter this morning. How unpleasant.

[canucklad]

I would suggest that the biggest threat and paradoxically, what might be Willie’s long term objective is to pulling totally out of the domestic market. As the gulf carriers (Etihad@EDI)and european carriers offering a very competive and attractive option from regional airports. This again allows BA to concentrate exclusively on the SE market and release more slots for long haul!

[rferguson]

LPPS I disagree. Virgin had blown a hell of a lot of hot air during this takeover about things that had nothing to do with it. ‘BA would have a monopoly on London – Scotland routes’ etc etc. They wanted to be airline consumer advocate for the people. Then perhaps what they should have done is taken back a few of the slots they have leased out to other airlines and started flights to Scotland if they were so concerned about the Scotish travelling public.

‘Glorying in slaughter this morning. How unpleasant’. Indeed! I can still remember not too long ago the delight Virgin took in shopping BA to the competition authorities when BA and Virgin were indulging in some price collusion. Oh how Virgin basked in the glory of the press announcing the massive fine to BA while they got immunity. They take a side swipe at BA every opportunity they get.

I don’t really see WW as glorying in slaughter. I more see it as ‘ok virgin, youve given all this hot air about what you WILL do so now lets see it’. For example, from todays Guardian Observer:
– Seven of the relinquished Heathrow slots must be sold to operators providing flights to Edinburgh and Aberdeen. Walsh challenged Virgin, which had warned that domestic services would be lost in a BA-bmi merger, to step in. He said Branson’s airline, when still hoping to win bmi for itself, had pledged to Scottish politicians it would operate such flights. “I would expect Virgin to honour the commitments they have made. They have said they would start flights to Scotland. They now have the ideal opportunity.”-

I wonder how many of the Scottish travelling public remember SRB’s commitment to launch GLA-JFK flights when BA pulled of the route….and that was over ten years ago. A Virgin aircraft never left the runway.

And that is Virgin and SRB’s problem. They have big mouths and think everyone else has short memories. I have been praying for the day that BA would finally have a chairman that would stand up to them and take them on in the public doman. Something BA had previously always been to ‘above’ to comtemplate.

Bring it on I say.

[VintageKrug]

I don’t think BA would entirely pull out of the domestic market, but I’d expect mainline not to be operating these routes in five years from now.

BA owns 15% of flybe, has outsourced LCY flights to BA Cityflyer and is trialling Iberia Express LCC model in Spain, and any of those would be a cost-effective model for domestic and some shorthaul flights.

APD is a key driver of cost, as well as slots. So there’s plenty of issues to be resolved before the right path becomes clear.

[LPPSKrisflyer]

Perhaps I’m all too English and don’t like the way Walsh is behaving. I agree about Branson over the years, more than enough hot air and false promises and I’ve been critical of him for that. Remember 4engines4longhaul and now they fly A330s on the Atlantic? There are lots of examples – separate thread anyone??

I doubt VS will ever operate on the Scottish routes and they could have done it before now by taking back their leased slots.

Surely IAG is trialing Iberia Express rather than BA?

[LeTigre]

Just thinking about which airlines will bid for the slots:

Edinburgh/Aberdeen: BMI Regional (?), Flybe
Nice: Air France (new base remember)
Cairo: Egyptair
Moscow: Aeroflot, S7 (This route is listed as one of the five, which means that more slots will be given, not just to Transaero)
Riyadh: Saudi, Nas Air (unlikely)

There is also a (very remote) possibility that Gulf airlines may use this as an opportunity to get some fifth-freedom routes to London, as there may be cost advantages compared to obtaining slots normally.

[RichHI1]

I think there will be a service increase to Madrid, I think it possible Latam will apply for some slots, brasilia, fortaleza, lima and santiago (possibly a double routing ) is possible and I also think one should keep anneye on Hainan who are getting very cosy with AA.

[LeTigre]

The slots I was referring to are the ones that BA has to give-up in order for the merger to get permission.

Do you think BA will lease the slots to Latam, Hainan, etc.?

[TGLynch]

The sad decline of BMI has been quite remarkable given it was such an innovative carrier from the 1980s on. Anyone who travelled on the BA shuttle services has reason to be grateful to BMI; however, over the last ten years it lost its way partly due to the growth in the low cost carriers and could not compete with BA’s club Europe product. Looking forward, one hopes to see more services to Asia, Africa and Latin America. It will be good to have BA back into Belfast but I suspect Dublin will go given BA’s relationship with EI.

[RichHI1]

Hengli it would not surprise me. BA service is limited to CHina and Latin America and Iberia has holes in it’s LAtin American coverage.

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