[LuganoPirate]

I can’t answer when, but I hope we can travel again sooner rather than later. However I do think this virus will change some things for good. A personal example, being on the board of a US / Swiss University whose campus is only in Switzerland. 23 board members from 7 different countries, including the US from Miami to Chicago and NY to California.
We have board meetings twice a year in NY and once in Switzerland, on the same weekend which includes the commencement ceremony. I was fed up with the cost of travel to NY, not to mention the hotel, meal and taxi expenses. Exceptionally this year we had the February meeting in Boca Raton. The Hilton where the meeting was taking place and where the Alumni event was to be held was $ 900 per night + a resort charge of $40 to use the sunbeds, beach towels and a couple of other things, none of which I’d use. And the nerve to be a beach resort and then charge a resort charge??

I and several other trustees then participated with ZOOM. Worked perfectly to the extent that due to the virus the May meeting will now be held solely via ZOOM and if successful this will be the future of our meetings. Yes, small fry in the greater scheme of things but how many other companies or institutions will now hold their meetings this way instead of physically face to face?

So I do believe the way we travel for business will change, but human nature being what it is, I think personal travel and short breaks will remain the same.

[GivingupBA]

Tom – it’s a sliding scale, but my guess is June or July 2020, mostly business travel – I’m sure leisure travel will take a big hit for quite a long time.

China, a massive market as we all know, is picking up already.

Please note – I am not in the travel industry.

[Swissdiver]

[postquote quote=995406][/postquote]

This discussion sounds familiar, LP. Didn’t we think the same way in past crisis? Now clearly the example you mention is far fetch cost-wise, if I may write. There are less expensive places to run a meeting. That said, I agree with the fact some board meetings could be done remotely, but probably only minor ones, where no difficult discussion is due to take place.

My son wrote his master thesis on leadership in virtual teams. Once he was done with the theoretical part, he came to me to ask for some managers to interview. I gave him a wide sample to make it relevant. One of his questions was something like do you really need to meet your team members live. The answer was unanimous: I need to see my people several times per year! So, thankfully, we are still human. Well at least until further notice.

1 user thanked author for this post.

PatJordan

[MartynSinclair]

It’s interesting that Skype isn’t being mentioned. The buzz word at the moment is ZOOM. However, my main concern about any video conferencing is the security aspect. My firm’s IT policy is if it’s free subscription, generally, the IT department would not approve the software for confidential virtual meetings.

[Swissdiver]

[postquote quote=995412][/postquote]

I use Skype for video conferencing and Zoom to run trainings and more complex meetings. But I would not use them for anything confidential, nor any other! I tend to favour phone, and of course when possible, live meetings.

[FaroFlyer]

Tom, I tend to agree with you, and the Economist, concerning cruises. My wife and I started a few years ago and have enjoyed it very much. However, we had a Med cruise booked for June, and have cancelled before making final payment. MSC, like many, have a flexible change, or future cruise credit, programme, but all seem to require full payment before you have a chance for change or credit. I have not checked all cruise compmanies but I have not found 1 that will offer a refund in the event of cancellation. I am not sure how financially strong the various cruise lines are, but I would consider a cruise line credit a greater risk than an airline credit. I suspect that few, if any, flag carrying airlines will be allowed to fail, but I cannot see many Governments stepping in to bail out a cruise line.

Ontherunhome, much of my travel is to exhibitions, mainly in Europe, as I find them a good way to meet many customers in one place. It will be interesting to see how strongly the exhibition industry bounces back. One of the exhibitions that I always attend, in Frankfurt in March, has been rescheduled to end September just 4 weeks before the major US competing event in Las Vegas, and 3 weeks after a smaller competing event in London. I shall probably still attend, but will wait to see exhibitor lists before booking flights or hotels, whereas I normally book flights and hotels as soon as I return from the current event.

Swissdiver, I understand your comments about past crises, but the reality is that video conferincing, and telecommunications generally, have improved dramatically since 9/11 or even the financial melt down. Previously you only had Skype, and fuzzy pictures that broke up. I agree that difficult board meetings, or indeed any meetings, are better face to face, but we still may see changes.

I think that holidays will bounce back quickly, especially short haul. Based on my own experience there are huge Expat communities around Europe that fly between homes on a very regular basis, and there is a huge pent up demand. I think that this kind of travel will resume quickly.

Most of my long haul travel has been to China, usually visiting with a European customer to show them manufacturing facilities. I think that the days of European companies making these kind of audits / visits will take a long time to resume.

[nevereconomy]

I really wonder why business travel would resume earlier than any other, since most of it really is not that essential – as we have seen businesses have used the “new” technologies to replace it. Of course there may be those that think getting their Gold Status assured makes it essential. I see caution about a resurgence keeping borders closed or strict measures on travelers, depending on their origin. September at the earliest for very limited travel. Of course the UK is allowing in people even now from countries with huge issues and no real checks and no rules on self isolation, so we might be open tomorrow. (One of my neighbours came back by road yesterday after 2 months in Spain and the border folks here were more interested in the dog’s pet passport than where they had been !!)

[Brett]

Here in NZ, Air NZ are re-positioning themselves as effectively a domestic airline and not expecting any upturn in long haul for between 12 – 18 months. The feeling is that our border controls will extend through our winter and into our spring.
Tourism will be domestic driven with half our hospitality industry closing down for good.
We have numerous luxury lodges and it has to be questionable how they will survive due to being reliant on the international market.

Kia Kaha (be strong)

[J_Pathmore]

The below exclusively makes reference to US/Europe travel. I cannot speak for Asia or Africa / S America.

Leisure and business travel will likely resume by the beginning of summer (I can only speak for Europe/US – I’m currently located in global epicenter NYC). Unfortunately, you won’t be able to block leisure travelers but allow business travelers. That said, the UK – which for better or worse is an incredibly advanced and smart country – has no travel restrictions because the virus has tragically extended throughout the world… it’s simply too late for these to be effective, especially since the US and EU are roughly on the same virus timeline. That doesn’t meant that if a cluster develops in a country in July (or whenever), they won’t be quarantined, but overall the whole world has it and the whole world will eventually get over it. Europe will need to beat the virus first as individual countries (you’re seeing Italy finally having some success), and then as a continent; too much travel within Europe necessary for business for any border protections to be up for a while.

Now a more effective question to ask and discuss should be “When will travel demand return”, because even though schedules could be expanded and restrictions limited late spring/early summer, when do we think that people will want to move around?

I believe that many, not all, EU/US business travelers will be quick to travel. However, I agree that leisure will take a huge hit. Young Europeans might well continue their summer travel plans to the US, likewise younger US based folk will likely continue their plans to get to the Mediterranean coast in July. But the bulk of leisure travelers – more elderly folk with savings in the bank, could be scared off until at least late summer and or later.

For those curious, read the recent articles on the virus infection rates by Stanford professors, and commentary by Dr. Michael Osterholm. The US and Europe will need to do the “dance” once this quarantine period (the “hammer”) is over. I personally know a number of people that have lost their jobs, and are already struggling to make ends meet. By May, this is going to be beyond unsustainable. The tragedy is that we can’t chose between quarantine (“life”) and normality (“economic life”) – we have to balance both. When quarantine periods end and we begin the balance, travel will resume. Of course, it will take months before BA have the demand to fill 10 flights a day to NYC, but I expect to see airlines slowly ramp up schedules through mid-May and into June. A few months of tested demand will mean some flights will get added/cancelled at shorter notice.

I agree with the above comments that normality will take a while to get back to, but strongly disagree with the notion that people won’t be able to travel in the summer.

2 users thanked author for this post.

ASK1945, openfly

[AMcWhirter]

[quote quote=995421]Here in NZ, Air NZ are re-positioning themselves as effectively a domestic airline and not expecting any upturn in long haul for between 12 – 18 months.[/quote]

Officially Air NZ says it will restart AKL-LHR for the final few months of service.

Maybe that will not happen now.

Europe loses its New Zealand link after 40 years

[Inquisitive]

I believe, it will take significantly Long time to return to normal business.

On the main question, when travel will return – some travel (Guess 30%) will return by June/July this year as some business and social travel have to return even if Covid-19 situation continues like this. Highly likely by summer, Biomedical Scientists will come up with partial cure plus most will develop own immune system.

But general economy will continue to struggle, so most companies will control business travel and my guess is even if we achieve near normalcy by end of this year, business travels will be curtailed at least by 25%. Many companies will realize that many work can be done without travel as we are doing now.

Social travel will resume as people need to travel to relatives and friends for wedding and other social activities.
However tourism may suffer longer. I am sure hotels and other tourists establishments will offer heavy discounts, but psychological reason will prevent most from tourism related travel.
Air and other surface travel will be normalize faster, the Cruise industry will take very long to recover.
In my case, I was planning a long haul vacation trip, I will probably go in the second half of the year if the situation part normalized, but I will not go for any cruise ship vacation in the reasonable future even if I get fantastic deals.

[capetonianm]

Zoom appears to give rise to significant security concerns, particularly when used for business purposes. A group of youngsters and their friends in our family circle were on a Zoom call and someone broke in and let loose a torrent of sexual and racist abuse. The real concern is that the calls may be recorded and made available to outside entities.

Listen up! ‘Zoombombing’ is a real thing and it can happen to you too

https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-times/lifestyle/2020-04-02-listen-up-zoombombing-is-a-real-thing-and-it-can-happen-to-you-too/

1 user thanked author for this post.

EU_Flyer

[Tom Otley]

That is shocking – though I had read about the concerns (in both the FT and New York Times).

There was also that rumour about Houseparty – which it denied and it has now offered a $1 million reward for anyone who identifies the person or company who did it for commercial reasons.

[Swissdiver]

[postquote quote=995446][/postquote]

If one makes public a Zoom meeting ID, anyone can indeed join. This is why meeting IDs should be sent only to the invitees and protected by a password. And the communication should be encrypted. While some of these are now there by default, some other features must be enacted. It means users should spend a little time to try to understand before using it. But of course they don’t.

An other issue that came public was that some data were sent to Facebook, but that was corrected. Now if you use Skype, it goes to Microsoft, Google tools to Google, … There is no way out. So as usual, these tools are to be used for what they are. Common sense it is called.

[canucklad]

Some very interesting and measured opinions …

For me there’s 2 primary factors to take into account , and if ever the saying “ Caught between a Rock & a Hard Place” was apt its now . or to be more specific in the coming weeks & months.

If you don’t mind I’ll use my personal circumstances as an example to explain my thoughts on some of the points raised

Virtual Working
I’m currently sitting at home , having being declared a non-essential worker , a potential virus threat to the people who are back in the office at the coalface dealing with customers.
I’m extremely busy, yet for all the activity I’m nowhere near as productive or as effective as I would be if I’d been able to meet my stakeholders face to face . It’s far more difficult to herd cats over the internet than it is face to face.

And a HUGE thanks to Martyn & capetonianm Zoom . Your contributions warranted me the need to ping an email back to the mothership to address usage.

Travel
Disappointed as I was at missing my trip to DB last month BA made it very easy for me to re-book for later on in the year. I’m sure that there are many others (not just BA customers) who are just waiting to literally take-off

Rock & Hard Place
Simply put, our global economy is so reliant on travel that governments must become more pragmatic as they balance health priorities with the need to cap the gushing oil well of subsidies . The cancellation of the Edinburgh Festival this year is going to leave a huge gap in the local and Scottish economy, and consequently adds to the already spiralling down effect in the wider economy . It’s incumbent that our governments around the world find a common sense aligned exit strategy to this. A fine line between freely allowing money to re-generate business , yet at the same time implementing checks and balances to get us out of our houses as soon as conditions dictate.
I.E allowing discounted travel to reboot the airline and cruise sectors yet making sure we do it in a measured way, potentially tracking peoples movement etc.

Lessons learnt
For me, this has got to be the biggest win and potentially the biggest risk.
Starting with Covid19, the Trumpster’s correct, it’s the Chinese Virus and we need to collectively put pressure on China and other countries where “Wet Markets” thrive to clean up their act.
God help us all, that as we recover from this , COVID2 incubates itself & jumps into the Human Geno and we’re back to where we are today. That’s akin to getting the all clear from the Big C to be told you’ve not!!

Why O why did our airports not have robust testing measures in place, when they already knew the risks — Sheers madness , almost criminal neglect !!
A month ago I arrived at EDI to find myself in a confined space along with other passengers from Spain, Italy , Poland and France. that confined space was the border Control !!

Being transparent earlier… I still don’t understand how a virus that apparently has a 21 day life has pretty much put the whole world into what looks like a 365 meltdown ?

Rant over

[Author]

Posts