When will travel return?

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Viewing 15 posts - 91 through 105 (of 105 total)

  • Tom Otley
    Keymaster

    I suppose it depends on where you live and also what you see.

    When I go for my one run or walk during the day, the majority of people respect the 2m rule unless passing on a country path makes it almost impossible.

    There are people breaking the rules – we have drug dealers in the area and it’s hardly a surprise they aren’t, though they are being more careful because they are more conspicuous in these pandemic times.

    I think it’s important to not generalise from what we see around us, because if we are keeping the lockdown, what we see is very little.

    After 3 weeks I think it’s amazing how people are keeping to it – especially if you consider those with your children in flats with no gardens, or in rented accommodation, or shared, or living in hostels, or with abusive partners etc…

    But the original thread is – When Will Travel Return, and I suppose, implicit in that, in what form – as before, eventually, or perhaps smaller.

    I think it will come back stronger than ever, but not for a couple of years. The real boom will come when China continues its growth – both economically and then with travellers – and perhaps India.

    There will then be 10 good years, and then the climate concerns will gradually stop air travel, I think. But that’s just my thoughts on it.

    Thank you, all of you, for your discussion and arguments, and also for not going too far in your disagreements.

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    capetonianm
    Participant

    I will be pleased if this is what happens, making air travel a more civilised experience at a higher cost.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/plane-fares-could-double-lockdown1/

    This is why plane fares could double after coronavirus lockdown

    Ticket prices are set to surge once non-essential foreign travel is allowed again

    Air fares could double when lockdown is lifted, making foreign holidays temporarily unaffordable for many British families.

    The Telegraph understands ticket prices are set to surge because once non-essential foreign travel is once again allowed, aircraft carriers are likely to be barred from fully filling planes.

    This is in order to ensure passengers keep a safe distance from each other while onboard. Last night an industry source said it is expected that aircraft carriers will be given social distancing guidance, which they will be asked to enforce for passengers.

    It would temporarily bar plane companies from selling more than a certain proportion of available seats on any given flight, to ensure passengers are spaced apart.

    If the guidelines state that companies can sell half of the seats on planes, for example, air fares would need to at least double to maintain pre-coronavirus profit margins.


    canucklad
    Participant

    One thing that really has been quite depressing about this pandemic is the number of people on social media who suddenly seem to have become virology experts…..

    For those of you who enjoy listening to the radio, and have an interest in our current situation and are either bored or don’t understand the often technical briefings that are being given I’d highly recommend you tune in to BBC Radio Scotland at 9.00am this morning.

    Scotland’s National Clinical Director”Jason Leitch” is on, and of all the people I’ve heard in the media, he’s very refreshing and down to earth when answering peoples questions and explaining the anything to do with Covid19.

    Well worth the listen


    SimonS1
    Participant

    A lack of explanation/education by Boris and his team? I suggest that is not at all the reason.

    transtraxman also wrote, “…………Or is it that too many people are so egoistic, selfish, and could not give a damn about themselves or others.”

    I strongly suggest that the latter is the reason for the examples of the flouting of the rules which you gave.

    Indeed I agree completely.

    Anyone living in UK could be in no doubt of what the guidelines are with saturation coverage in the media.

    In any group of people you will sadly find those who believe they are too important or the rules are not for them. It happens in business travel, and it happens in pandemic times too.

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    capetonianm
    Participant

    Or is it that too many people are so egoistic, selfish, and could not give a damn about themselves or others.”

    Friends of ours live in the same village as someone ‘famous’ for screaming into a microphone. This woman pushed into the front of the queue at a local supermarket and when challenged …… you can guess …… said : “Do you know who I am?”


    TupeloKid
    Participant

    In the “old days”, you got your jabs before travelling to many countries, either voluntarily or (more rarely) as a requirement for entry. i remember having a little booklet with up to date stamps for the main lurgies of those times. Just as we have all got used to more stringent security requirements at airports, perhaps we will just have to get used to proving we have had our shots, in which case, unfortunately, the airlines might be able to continue to get away with cramming people in.

    As a personal preference, I would be happy if fares went up by 50% with a reduction in the number of people I shared the plane with (in whichever cabin).

    1 user thanked author for this post.

    capetonianm
    Participant

    As a personal preference, I would be happy if fares went up by 50% with a reduction in the number of people I shared the plane with (in whichever cabin).

    What a pleasure that would be.


    ASK1945
    Participant

    “Friends of ours live in the same village as someone ‘famous’ for screaming into a microphone. This woman pushed into the front of the queue at a local supermarket and when challenged …… you can guess …… said : “Do you know who I am?””

    One of my daughters runs events. Often she has to sit on a reception desk and there’s always someone who has not booked but attempts to gain entry by ““Do you know who I am?”. She replies “No, but if you take a seat over there I will try to find someone who can tell you”.

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    transtraxman
    Participant

    Friends of ours live in the same village as someone ‘famous’ for screaming into a microphone. This woman pushed into the front of the queue at a local supermarket and when challenged …… you can guess …… said : “Do you know who I am?”

    Have the medical experts ascertained yet whether this loss of memory is a side-effect of the virus infection?

    1 user thanked author for this post.

    ASK1945
    Participant

    “Have the medical experts ascertained yet whether this loss of memory is a side-effect of the virus infection?”

    I don’t know, but anyway this has been going on for years. It’s usually something to do with how wealthy they are, though – that she does know.

    1 user thanked author for this post.

    TupeloKid
    Participant

    “Friends of ours live in the same village as someone ‘famous’ for screaming into a microphone. This woman pushed into the front of the queue at a local supermarket and when challenged …… you can guess …… said : “Do you know who I am?””

    One of my daughters runs events. Often she has to sit on a reception desk and there’s always someone who has not booked but attempts to gain entry by ““Do you know who I am?”. She replies “No, but if you take a seat over there I will try to find someone who can tell you”.

    Very good!

    1 user thanked author for this post.

    canucklad
    Participant

    On the BA Covid thread fellow contributor David Gordon wrote…..
    “But, at HKG, non residents not allowed in, all arrivals from UK, Europe and US taken to Asiaworld Expo for mandatory COVID 19 swab test. For UK arrivals, have to stay there until results are known”

    I’m now heading off to Hong Kong in October, and my perfect scenario is arriving as I’ve always done. Completing my landing card, complete with where I’m staying in DB, and then breezing through the unobtrusive temp checks and the always friendly immigration folk.

    However , sadly and correctly I’d imagine it’s going to be a tad more difficult next time I arrive

    I’d love to think that by the time October arrives the following processes /checks are in place …..

    1) HK & GB bilaterally agree on a documentation scheme that starts with me getting tested and given the all clear by my local GP shortly before I travel
    2) Before boarding my BA flight at T5 I get heat tested before boarding
    3) On arrival my recognised documentation allows me to head straight to my accommodation after again passing the unobtrusive temp check

    The elephant in the room is how quickly governments around the world can agree robust and trustworthy schemes, possibly overseen and validated by WHO ?

    If the current HK playbook is still in place ( even in a diluted manner) there is little or no point travelling to HK.
    And sadly that means the local businesses are going to suffer as they won’t benefit from my spending power.

    Fingers crossed , by October restrictions will be minimal !

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    SimonS1
    Participant

    I’d love to think that by the time October arrives the following processes /checks are in place …..

    1) HK & GB bilaterally agree on a documentation scheme that starts with me getting tested and given the all clear by my local GP shortly before I travel
    2) Before boarding my BA flight at T5 I get heat tested before boarding
    3) On arrival my recognised documentation allows me to head straight to my accommodation after again passing the unobtrusive temp check

    Indeed it will be interesting to see how Governments release travel restrictions, however it will be extremely challenging to find a model that provides a level of protection. For example in respect of what you say:

    1) Bilateral schemes will be a nightmare (by definition they are all different so best avoided). Also the NHS will likely still be under pressure and I doubt the Government will want GP surgeries full of people seeking travel certificates. Plus wouldn’t such a certificate be out of date the minute you walk out the surgery and interact with any other member of the public who may or may not be infectious?

    2 and 3) Heat testing isn’t a way of preventing anything, someone who passes the heat lamp today may develop symptoms tomorrow (I believe that is what Dubai found, and it is why PHE has advised Heathrow that such tests are of limited value). And say you failed the heat test on arrival (which inevitably would happen to someone), would the plan then be to quarantine you? Anyone who sat within 6 feet of you on the plane? Everyone on the plane? Everyone who you may have interacted with on the journey?

    I suspect much depends on whether it is possible to develop an ‘instant’ test that can be delivered at scale, or even an antibodies test that might demonstrate who had had the virus and is presumed immune.

    It will also be interesting to see whether airlines attempt to impose any form of distancing on flights or just accept that bearing in mind the need to use lavatories etc onboard this would be a strategy unlikely to work.

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    canucklad
    Participant

    Definitely agree Simon about it being a potential logistical nightmare.

    I would say that you’ll never totally remove the risk, but I’d like to think that by the end of summer , hopefully by the end of June we’ll have returned to some sense of normality.

    In particular enjoying a pint with friends down the local without worrying about social distancing .

    To achieve this i’d have thought by then, we’d have a better understanding of cluster management, therefore having the ability to layer restrictions of movement dependant on location sooner rather than later.
    I’d add , learning from other’s we’d also have by then invested in mass testing , allowing us to aggressively pursue the virus rather than currently being passive and allowing the virus to find us.,

    Although as you’ve mentioned before we’re not experts, but thinking selfishly here I don’t want to still be sitting in my house in June, and certainly want to be getting my passport out the drawer well before October, and that means an agreed protocol between our nations.

    For me, it’s not about eliminating the risk , otherwise we’ll be perpetually stuck where we are. It’s more about mitigating the risk as much as we possibly can .

    And as far as temp checks go, why so many years after SAR’s does HKG still covertly use them ?

    2 users thanked author for this post.

    SimonS1
    Participant

    Testing definitely is a big factor in all of this. Given that symptoms are not always obvious it may be more people have had infection.

    Otherwise it may be the only way of easing restrictions is trial and error. None of the measures I have seen so far in the media seem particularly foolproof, hence the risk of secondary waves.

    Ultimately perhaps there comes a point where you have to take a risk assessment and balance out the risk of further infections with the need to avoid economic disaster. Big decision to make though.

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