No deal Brexit and aviation

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This topic contains 41 replies, has 19 voices, and was last updated by  FaroFlyer 17 Jan 2019
at 16:58
.

Viewing 12 posts - 31 through 42 (of 42 total)

  • stevescoots
    Participant

    I often wonder how the negotiations would have evolved if Mrs May had not accepted the intransigence from Europe (Messers Juncker, Barnier and Tusk). Offering the UK / Mrs May, what is described as the ONLY deal, along with a comment suggesting, the UK will regret leaving the day after they sign the deal… shows how weak the UK were by just rolling over and not really fighting back to get a better divorce settlement/agreement.

    President Trump may have his critics, but I feel confident had the UK had a businessman leading the negotiations (rather than a lawyer), the outcome could have been very different.

    The EU has become a beast and whilst I admit to voting to remain, I would not vote to remain in the EU currently, unless the EU was a true democracy.

    As for a No deal Brexit and Aviation – does anyone really think airplanes will be grounded with a no deal… ?

    Similarities to way Sepp Blatter ran Fifa spring to mind …

    Happy New Year to all and I am sure 2019 will be a very exciting year…

    Sepp Blatter, took the words right out of my mouth. I see JCJ used private jets for over half his trips last year, despite EU rules that they are only to be used when no other option available. no wonder Eu accounts have not been signed off in over 20 years


    Seat62k
    Participant

    The current disharmony regarding Brexit is exacerbated by the media saying ‘despite Brexit’ and never ‘because of Brexit’, whenever good news emerges regarding the economy, jobs etc.


    LuganoPirate
    Participant

    I have to agree with what you say Marytyn, and as I’ve already said, I don’t think planes will be grounded, nor will there be food shortages or massive 20 mile tailbacks of lorries waiting to board the ferries.

    Switzerland is not part of the EU or EEA customs area, and most of the South and Northbound traffic from Northern Europe passes through there. The longest queue I’ve seen is 1km but usually there is no queue and you pass through in about 45 minutes. Remember also Switzerland does not allow trucks above 32 tonnes and prohibits them driving between 2200 and 0600 and from midday saturday until Monday morning. No such restrictions to/from the Uk.

    In the case of a no deal, and that’s what I’m hoping for, or at least a deal that is a darn sight more favourable than the one we have on the table now, I’m sure there will be some short term pain – it’s almost inevitable – but business and government will quickly adapt and within a short period UK plc will boom as we are no longer bound by the restrictive rules that govern European life. Talking to friends in Brussels, who cannot believe how Mrs. M has rolled over, this is the big fear of the Eurocrats, as other countries will look on and seriously consider leaving as well. We’ve never been able to reform the EU from within, but ironically we may be responsible for reforming it from outside as the EU will have to adapt to avoid losing other member countries.

    3 users thanked author for this post.

    Graham
    Participant

    From the first para.: “It would not be in the interest of any EU country or the UK to restrict the choice of destinations that could be served…”

    In fact, Brexit itself is not “in the interest of any EU country or the UK” – but the UK government no longer seems to care about such considerations, so I wouldn’t count on intelligence featuring in whatever decisions are finally arrived at.

    2 users thanked author for this post.

    Tom Otley
    Keymaster

    Interesting piece in the Financial Times (subscription required) about Brexit and IAG

    IAG/Brexit: flight plight

    Anglo-Spanish airline is coy about how it would avoid falling foul of EU ownership rules


    IanFromHKG
    Participant

    3 of us are off to the HK 7’s flying with Lufthansa……on April fools Day

    With apologies for going off-topic…

    canucklad, I will be attending with the Memsahib and Offspring on Friday and Saturday – perhaps we could meet, either in the ground or outside?? Martyn has my details and I am sure can be prevailed upon to share them with you


    IanFromHKG
    Participant

    I’m not sure if this EUR 7 is an “EU” charge or a “Schengen” one. Will it also apply to visitors to Switzerland and Norway for example? Both are in Schengen but out of the EU. And we must not forget, but Ireland is not in Schengen.

    Correct, but Eire IS in the Common Travel Area – so unless that situation changes, there can be no charge for travelling between the UK and the Republic of Ireland (well, provided you’re British or Irish, anyway!). And once you’re in the Republic, you can go anywhere else in the EU without charge. Perhaps IAG should be ramping up EI’s continental Europe connections!!


    IanFromHKG
    Participant

    All this Project Panic nonsense makes me think of the famous headline from years ago in a UK newspaper :
    “Fog in Channel – Continent Cut Off”

    Which reminded me in turn of this hilarious commentary – it is about Syria and terrorism, but so much of it could be relevant to where we find ourselves now. Incidentally, I apologise to all our continental European members who may be offended by this, but I couldn’t resist – it’s just too bloody funny!!

    1 user thanked author for this post.

    IanFromHKG
    Participant

    I often wonder how the negotiations would have evolved if Mrs May had not accepted the intransigence from Europe (Messers Juncker, Barnier and Tusk).

    I completely agree – whatever else you may think of her (the most complimentary adjective I have heard recently in this context, incidentally, is “dogged” – but then again, that might have been meant to be an insult) my own opinion is that Theresa May is the most appalling strategist. She had a golden opportunity, when she called the last general election, to make it a one-issue campaign, and to say that she fluffed it would be the understatement of the millennium. By trying to introduce a host of new policies, some of which were deeply unpopular, she completely f*****d up the prospect of getting an overwhelming majority and improving the UK’s negotiating position. That position was never going to be great – one country against 27 was never going to be a fair fight, particularly when some of those 27 also have doubts about the EU and the Eurocracy were worried about giving too much away lest it encourage more defections – but the way in which May’s government caved and gave in, before any substantive negotiation on the other aspects of the deal, on the most important issues (notably the backstop and the divorce bill), to my mind, weakened the UK’s bargaining position considerably. I cannot help but think that Maggie Thatcher would have called the EU’s bluff and walked away.

    Anyway – back to the main topic. I also find it hard to contemplate that aviation will come to a standstill (or is that a no-fly zone?) as everyone has too much to lose. I do wonder, however, how long it is going to take for the UK to rebuild its regulatory infrastructure to replace the EU institutions? Who is going to grant certification to Rolls-Royce aero engines, for example?


    canucklad
    Participant

    She had a golden opportunity, when she called the last general election, to make it a one-issue campaign, and to say that she fluffed it would be the understatement of the millennium.

    Totally agree and it makes me almost think that it was her and pro European advisors deliberate attempt to sabotage the process of leaving.
    I remember laughing out loud in the car as we drove back from a golfing holiday when she talking about bring back fox hunting !!
    More faces than the town clock , and that goes for all the politicians involved !!


    capetonianm
    Participant

    IATA calls for clarity as Brexit flight cap looms

    16 January, 2019 SOURCE: Flight Dashboard BY: Lewis Harper London

    IATA has called on the European Union and the UK to provide clarity on how the bloc’s proposal for a cap on flights would work in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

    Under its planning for such a scenario, the European Commission in December proposed that any flights operated by UK airlines between the country and the bloc on 29 March 2019 would be allowed to continue for 12 months; however, it also said that those carriers would not be able to add new routes or increase the frequencies of existing services during the period.

    “That current flight levels will be protected even with a hard Brexit is an important assurance,” states IATA’s director general Alexandre de Juniac. “But with two months left until Britain leaves the EU, airlines still do not know exactly what kind of Brexit they should be planning for.”

    His comments followed the failure of the UK government to gain parliamentary approval for its EU withdrawal agreement on 15 January. It is unclear how the country will now proceed, but the default legal position is for the UK to leave the bloc on 29 March with no deal on the future relationship.

    “There is legal and commercial uncertainty over how the Commission’s plan to cap flight numbers will work,” notes de Juniac. “In the small window remaining before Brexit, it is imperative that the EU and UK prioritise finding a solution that brings certainty to airlines planning growth to meet demand and to travellers planning business trips and family holidays.”

    In December, airports body ACI Europe suggested the proposed cap on UK airline services “would ultimately result in the loss of 93,000 new flights and nearly 20 million airport passengers on the UK-EU27 market”.

    The UK government has consistently expressed a desire for air connectivity to be unaffected by any Brexit scenario.

    Under a no-deal scenario, the UK could exit the EU and immediately become a “third party” country, negating a raft of agreements on air services.

    Under a no-deal scenario, the UK could exit the EU and immediately become a “third party” country, negating a raft of agreements on air services ……...which would then be renegotiated!


    FaroFlyer
    Participant

    I completely agree – whatever else you may think of her (the most complimentary adjective I have heard recently in this context, incidentally, is “dogged” –

    Is that the past tense of Dogging?

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