[AnthonyDunn]

As reported in today’s Financial Times:

https://www.ft.com/content/ceb7d6ce-8f55-11e8-bb8f-a6a2f7bca546 [paywall applies]

Heathrow has raised £1Bn in debt. John Holland-Kaye (HAL CEO) said he expected “something close to continuity” through a Brexit agreement but “our funding levels… mean we are protected. Even if we have no income for two months, we would be financially safe.”

The Maybot’s “red lines” made a compromise agreement with the EU27 considerably harder but one of the points relatively little understood is that membership of the European Aviation Safety Agency (which governs ALL civil aviation and aerospace manufacturing) is subject to the CJ-EU. And the Maybot has repeatedly ruled out being subject to the CJ-EU. The CEO of the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority has publicly stated that they have made no contingency plans to take on the roles and responsibilities of EASA because they just do not have the capacity or capability. All those years of Civil Service job cuts…. He too is hoping that something can be put in place to ensure continuity.

But as Michael O’Leary has been warning for quite some time:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/michael-o-leary-s-wild-brexit-predictions-now-look-prescient-1.3307459

Because Eurostar operations are subject to a bilateral UK-France treaty, beyond possible visa requirements, it’s likely that these services will not be affected by a hard Brex**it. So you would be able to fly to/from Brussels, Paris and/or Amsterdam and then get onto a Eurostar (assuming availability).

Oh, and in case anyone has missed this, as a clue to the seriousness of the situation, the UK government is now having to make plans to “ensure continuity” of food and drugs supply in the event of a hard Brex**it:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/24/contingencies-planned-to-ensure-uks-post-brexit-food-supply-says-raab
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/24/uk-brexit-uncertainty-economy

I now fully expect to hear from the resident (or not so UK resident!) Quitlings that this is all because the EU is intent on punishing the UK and that all of this is just “Project Fear” (sic) rather than Project Fantasy running smack into Project Reality.

For anyone planning on travelling to/from the UK at the end of March 2019, just what contingency planning are you making?

2 users thanked author for this post.

1nfrequent, Charles-P

[FDOS_UK]

Anthony, there’s an interesting story in there, somewhere.

What a shame you ruined it with an unpleasant political rant.

I’ve reported this thread, as it is likely to start a mindless row between the two sides of the schism and in light of recent comments by other people that rows put them off the forum.

[Charles-P]

‘AnthonyDunn’ – thanks for posting, a very interesting article and on the back of the news that yesterday the UK and EU made their fillings in Switzerland for WTO status with wildly different expectations of what will happen in the future. Regardless of posters views on Brexit it is obvious there will be a profound effect on how British nationals travel for business and pleasure if it does happen. We can all expect far longer delays at airports and ports together with increased paperwork for exporting and importing and increased costs across the board. Without an agreement before March 2019 current ATC agreements will all end, in short planes will stop flying, that is not scaremongering or “project fear” that is aeronautical fact and is being prepared for at both NATS and Eurocontrol. At all costs the UK must avoid a ‘no deal’ Brexit with the UK reverting to WTO rules – that would be an economic disaster that could take generations to recover from.

I am aware of many UK and EU mainland companies also making extensive preparations for potential new arrangements. As an example I hold a directorship at a UK engineering company which is closing its Manchester factory and moving production to Bulgaria to ensure continued access to both the Single Market and the Customs Union, there will regretfully be 720 job losses in the UK as a result. I know that Airbus is already looking at the future of its UK operation and the 14,000 people it employees there, already both Spain and Italy have been making the case to the UK’s operation moved to their countries.
Without doubt taxes will need to rise in the UK to pay for the massive cost of Brexit.

For Business Travellers there is very little if any good news about Brexit.

2 users thanked author for this post.

1nfrequent, FDOS_UK

[canucklad]

Really quite fed up with Soft Brexit versus hard Brexit argument /debate …….

It seems to me that if all UK companies started to act responsibly, like this Spanish, Qatari, Singaporean and Canadian owned business there would be less hysteria about.

Love him or loathe him, but we need to accept that we now live in a world dominated by a rather disruptive , some would say erratic US politician. Throw in a Tsar, a Turk and an increasingly fragmented Europe and unless you’re able to choose 6 numbers successfully on a Saturday night then nobody can predict the future – Positive or otherwise !!

Politicians on both sides ( sorry all sides) need to stop playing their selfish games and get on with it.
The UK needs to speak with one voice and stand up to the plate . Only then will the EU get serious and realize how much they have to lose too.

[FDOS_UK]

CharlesP, that is exactly the type of post that is required on this topic, well done.

1 user thanked author for this post.

Charles-P

[FDOS_UK]

Only then will the EU get serious and realize how much they have to lose too.

Speaking apolitically, I believe that the EU are only too aware of what they have to lose, both in terms of Brexit and beyond. I don’t see how they can let any country pick and choose it’s terms of engagement otherwise everyone will wish to.

It is, IMO, a negotiation where the EU has a well defined reservation point and BATNA, which is to throw the UK to the wolves if that is what needed to defend the integrity of the union (though they would prefer the UK to stay in).

1 user thanked author for this post.

Kimi_CDG

[MartynSinclair]

[quote quote=877742]in short planes will stop flying, that is not scaremongering or “project fear” that is aeronautical fact and is being prepared for at both NATS and Eurocontrol.[/quote]

Aeroplanes will not stop flying in March 2019 with no exit agreement. Remember UK airspace controls most of the Europe to USA transit traffic and if there is no agreement, there will be an “agreement, for no agreement”.

..and also how on earth will the politicians get to the closing ceremony!!!

[FDOS_UK]

[quote quote=877749]

Charles-P wrote:

in short planes will stop flying, that is not scaremongering or “project fear” that is aeronautical fact and is being prepared for at both NATS and Eurocontrol.

Aeroplanes will not stop flying in March 2019 with no exit agreement. Remember UK airspace controls most of the Europe to USA transit traffic and if there is no agreement, there will be an “agreement, for no agreement”.

..and also how on earth will the politicians get to the closing ceremony!!![/quote]

It’s not just airspace, it’s validity of pilot’s licences, aircraft certification etc. I tend to agree with you that something will be done to keep the skies open, as it has to be.

[Charles-P]

[quote quote=877744]Only then will the EU get serious and realize how much they have to lose too.[/quote]

‘canucklad’ -Rregretfully the EU has little to lose from the UK leaving the EU, this fallacy has been pushed time and time again by the likes of Farage and his paymasters. Yes British people will still want to buy German cars, French wine and Italian ham but they will pay more to do so, much more.
I see in mainland Europe countries like Germany are already attracting London based financial services to their country, the Dutch reaching out to UK/US pharmaceuticals and offering attractive offers to relocate in Amsterdam and Rotterdam, companies such as Nissan and Honda receiving massive government funded subsidies to convince them to stay, who is going to pay for that ?
Who is going to pay for the subsidies that UK farmers receive from the EU ?
Who will make up for the EU funds that are funding regeneration across the UK ?
Who will finance the new enormous customs infrastructure needed at EVERY SINGLE British sea and airport ?
Who will fund the unemployment benefits for those whose jobs are gone when their companies relocate out of the UK ?
Who will pay for the regulatory authorities and their research currently conducted by the EU on behalf of all its members ?
Who will explain to future generations why their freedom of movement has been removed ?

One could argue all of the above is solvable, could be fixed with new jobs and new funding, could be overcome with sufficient commitment and application – I agree but why do it, why spend that money on fixing Brexit when it could be spent on the NHS, on Education, on Defence, on Social Care, on Cancer research, on road and rail infrastructure.

Why spend money we don’t need to spend to fix a problem we don’t have to endure ?

That is my take on Brexit, I doubt very much if I will be affected in any way by it. To be crass and vulgar I am both rich and protected, I and my family will be fine. I have Belgian as well and British nationality and have the option of a South African passport if needed. The likes of Farage, Gove, Boris and Rees-Mogg are going to be fine, they have the resources and contacts to ensure their protection but for millions of others the story is very different, they are going to pay in so many ways that as yet they do not fully appreciate.

I fought for Britain, I served it in a war and was proud to do so and I love its history and its place in the world, I admire so much about it but I never thought I would see a day its politicians took the choice to make the lives of its citizens worse to ensure the survival of their political party.

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Jacob, AnthonyDunn

[canucklad]

Hi CharlesP—Great post, honest candour and great to read your travelogue elsewhere on the site

Sadly I’m getting to the stage that I just don’t care anymore ….
As someone who is very definitely a liberal leaning democratic, I didn’t vote for Brexit, I voted to leave an organization that nobody voted for in the first place

However, I’ve always suspected and still believe that we won’t ultimately leave the EU. The UK voters simply will not be allowed to have their democratic say.

The EU has lamentable history of ignoring voters., whenever a populace choose something that goes against the EU bureaucrats.
The wounded juggernaut begins a merry opera designed to confuse , scaremonger and intimate the rebellious population into doubting their reasoning .

A smoke screen full of facts and figures and empty promises to reform are rolled out , until eventually those same voters are ground down. And with the help of the compliant and complicit national governments are told to vote again.

This opera is now in full swing and has now reached the 3rd of its 4 acts.

Ultimately, IMO, it will be businessmen that resolve the issues, not politicians. You mentioned the Tories and their tiresome travails, sadly the Labour party would be just a mirror image with a different hue.
Once the vote was known, it should have been a coalition government until the transition was complete. Thus avoiding the DUP scenario …..But heyho, what do I know, I’m just a stupid ignorant voter !!

1 user thanked author for this post.

Inthesandpit

[Charles-P]

[quote quote=877762]Ultimately, IMO, it will be businessmen that resolve the issues, not politicians.[/quote]

I certainly hope so, I have yet to meet a politician from any party, from any country that I would employee.

[MartynSinclair]

[quote quote=877762]Once the vote was known, it should have been a coalition government until the transition was complete.[/quote]

@canucklad – or at the very least a cross party Brexit committee and decision making process. One of the main reasons (IMO) that an acceptable all round agreement will not be created, both the main political parties are made up of politicians from both spectrums of the Brexit discussion. If the majority party in power cant agree on a way forward, how on earth are all the parties going to agree a solution.

As far as banking moving to Frankfurt is concerned, its not going to happen en masse in the short term. Quite simply, the investment firms are raking it in with all the investment opportunities this volatile market is bringing. The last thing they will want to do is move from London in the short term and disrupt their money making machines and bonuses.

[Charles-P]

[quote quote=877773]or at the very least a cross party Brexit committee and decision making process.[/quote]

Or of course we could simply not do it at all, save a fortune, save thousands of jobs and ensure the UK population continues to enjoy all the rights and benefits of EU membership ?

3 users thanked author for this post.

Jacob, AnthonyDunn, 1nfrequent

[MartynSinclair]

[quote quote=877777]Or of course we could simply not do it at all, save a fortune, save thousands of jobs and ensure the UK population continues to enjoy all the rights and benefits of EU membership ?[/quote]

…… agreed and the plan??

[Charles-P]

[quote quote=877778]…… agreed and the plan??[/quote]

Revoke Article 50, invoking the electoral fraud of the ‘Vote Leave’ campaign.
Establish a new date for a second Referendum that will be 100% binding and open to all UK citizens and residents.
Finance an impartial media information campaign that tells the truth about the EU and the UK relationship with it.
Bring into law the elements of the Levinson report that make media proprietors and newspaper editors personally liable for financial penalties if they knowingly publish lies.

Finally bring before the House legislation that makes it legal to punch Nigel Farage and Paul Dacre every time they set foot in the UK.

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Jacob, 1nfrequent, transtraxman, AnthonyDunn

[Author]

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