[LuganoPirate]

More scaremongering from Spanish owned Heathrow. Why on earth should border control take any longer than it does now.?The UK is not in Schengen, so we all have to pass border control when arriving. That will not change – why should it?

Why is a UK pilots licence any less valid than a US, Chinese, Saudi or Australian one? Will KLM, AF, LH et al want to stop flying to the UK from where they earn significant revenue not to mention feeder traffic into their long haul ops? Doesn’t KLM boast about Schiphol being London’s second airport and the UK’s premier hub airport? It works both ways. They stop us, we stop them.

Will Spain want to lose the 18 million Brits that go there each year and contributes 11% of Spanish economic output? Of course they won’t.

The sacred German auto industry is quaking about US tariffs on its cars. Well Britain is actually Germans largest market for cars, so quake some more.

Why do the remainers cling and expound on every threat, menace and blackmail that comes out of the EU’s mouth. Isn’t it interesting that Frau Merkel and M. Macron have told their industrial leaders and ministers not to talk about the negative effects of Brexit on them, only the other way round – and of course they obey!

I could go on. I won’t, but what we are lacking is a strong negotiating team that is not intimidated by project fear and not bullied by the EU or the remainers in the UK. Finally, if it’s such a fantastic club why should the EU fear other countries leaving?

2 users thanked author for this post.

Reeferman, stevescoots

[FDOS_UK]

[quote quote=877783]evoke Article 50 and tell Farage and the rest to drop dead[/quote]

As much as I voted ‘remain’ and believe that Brexit makes little sense financially, I don’t think you can do that – it is an action that would cause enormous ill feeling with people who voted ‘leave’ and would feel that they had been lead down a garden path. Civil wars have started over less, even though the UK is a stable country and this would be unlikely.

What I do believe is that it is high time for a second referendum, with three or more sensible questions and transferable votes, to provide a meaningful mandate, now people have two years of history to reflect upon.

[canucklad]

Martyn and Charles

Let me expand on my 4 Act opera hypothesis , that IMO is currently being played out ……I’ll even name a few of the key actors ……

Act 1) Re-birth of a nation :
Let Nigel , Boris and the other key “establishment” Brexiteers howl victoriously , claiming victory for democracy and the will of the people. To re-enforce thus great , enter the tragic of David as he pulls out his sword of Damocles.

Act 2) The rise of Joan of May
Theresa the saviour , embraces the maternal responsibility of us all, and reassures us that all will be OK. Then inexplicably gambles all and asks permission to do her job. In doing so, Joan of May embarks on the worst election campaign in history, epitomised by her manifesto pledge to bring back fox hunting. In the process guaranteeing a high turnout of leftie, tree hugging, animal lovers. Exactly the polar opposite of what should have been her target demographic ……Hung parliament, job done !! Not quite, enter Willamina of orange on her White Charger to muddy the toxic waters even more..

Act 3) Enter the Jesters
Like any parent , Joan of May has to tolerate and manage her troublesome children . With a firm hand she allows Boris, David & Liam to run amok , causing chaos, spreading rumors and everywhere they go like l naughty schoolboys the world over, they’re eventually publically chastised . On cue they sulk off in the huff. Sister Justine ( think Lisa Simpson) along with her pals seem to suggest a common sense well-reasoned alternative to this muddle …….. this sounds like a good idea. Giving us a choice of what we want to do ?

Act 4) The fall of Joan of May
Our heroine decides enough is enough, parliament will have the ultimate say, and now that the masses have been told that there is a chance to have their say, which politican in their right mind could resist ……… After all , they didn’t vote for Brexit in the first place !!

Democracy 0 – Establishment 1 ——Job done —-welcome to the EEC, oh, sorry the EU super state

[FDOS_UK]

[quote quote=877794]Why is a UK pilots licence any less valid than a US, Chinese, Saudi or Australian one?[/quote]

LP – AFAIK all UK commercial pilot’s licences (and ratings) are EASA documents, issued by the CAA and will expire on 31 March, next year unless a deal is done.

The other documents you mention benefit from aviation agreements, when used internationally.

This is excellent news (not) for all UK CAA PPLs, who were obliged to convert their licences to EASA licences, if they wanted to fly EASA approved aircraft (such as Cessnas and Pipers) from April this year – way to go!

[christopheL]

@ Charles-P
Where can we buy your small manual for budding dictator 🙂

[MartynSinclair]

The other problem UK pilots may have is whether their license will remain valid for aircraft registered in different countries…

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FDOS_UK

[AnthonyDunn]

If this is just a provocation, perhaps people should ask themselves why has HAL/BAA Ltd (or whatever it is now calling itself) done this, publicised the fact and given the explanation that it has?

We now had two years of “just trust us, everything is going to be wonderful in the sunlit uplands of Brex**itannia…” without getting any serious answers. It has become painfully clear that the Brextremists in charge do not have a plan, have never had a plan and will never have a plan. Oh, a correction to that assertion. As some serious commentators have pointed out, the Brex**it “ultras” are entirely happy and willing for the UK to crash out of the EU without any agreement on 29Mar19 because that has been their objective several spanning decades.

As this is arguably the single most important issue facing the UK since 1945, it is dishonest to ignore it and be silenced because it might upset the horses. if you are UK-based or oriented, just about anything and everything posted on BT is of “secondary or minor” importance after this issue. Bemoaning the quality of lounges at T5, the lack of a new BA CW seat or failings in customer service are going to be wholly irrelevant if there are very few, if any, planes flying into/out of the UK for a period after the end of March 2019.

For those who are so inclined, I would suggest you try reading the House of Lords’ EU Committee Seventh Report Session 2017-19 entitled “Brexit: deal or no deal”. This is found at:

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeucom/46/46.pdf

Then there is this short paper produced by the UK in a Changing Europe Project at King’s College, University of London:

Cost of no deal

And one other highly intelligent and knowledgable website is worth looking at too. It is written by the Professor of Organisation Studies at Royal Holloway, University of London. His posting of 20Jul18 is particularly worth reading:

http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com

That is, very probably, far too many experts for some readers – and not just Michael Cove MP.

I will now repeat my original question: just what contingency plans do other BT subscribers have in the event of the UK exiting the EU and without any deal on 29March19 and there being a cessation of most civil aviation into and out of the UK?

[AnthonyDunn]

Really LP, we have long since moved on from the Vote Leave tropes of “they need us more than we need them” because it has long since become apparent that “No they don’t?”. After your standard rant against the EU, do you not understand that there is a queue of countries to JOIN rather than to leave….?!

As others have pointed out (26July17):

http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2017/07/the-german-car-industry-and-brexit.html

were everything to revolve around the needs of the German auto industry, then the head of the German auto industry federation would not, publicly and repeatedly, have stated that the integrity (and size) of the single market matters far more to them than does the UK market. And the EU fully understands that a no-deal rock-hard/train-crash/cliff edge lemming-leap Brex**it is going to hurt them – but just nowhere near as hard as it will hit the UK. In which you no longer reside. Please try and keep up.

For those who do not understand the point, civil aviation (as a service industry) does not fall within the purview of what was the GATT and is now the World Trade Organisation. Other than a relatively “light touch” role for the ICAO agency of the UN, civil aviation is largely governed by a series of bilateral agreements such as between the EU and the US governing air services in each direction. As an FT subscriber, you should have seen this article, entitled “US offers UK inferior open skies deal after Brexit”

https://www.ft.com/content/9461157c-1f97-11e8-9efc-0cd3483b8b80 (paywall applies).

The default global regulators are, to all intents and purposes, the European Aviation Safety Agency and/or the US FAA. And the UK CAA has publicly stated that it does not have the capacity to replicate the work and role of EASA.

So, should the UK choose to exit the EU without a deal on 29Mar19, owing to the theological dogma of its own, self-imposed, “red lines”, it will fall out of the EASA regulatory system. As others have already had to point out to you, that applies to airline pilots’ licences, UK air operators licences and to UK-sourced aerospace manufactures. That is why little will fly and little will be sold – unless and until there is a recognised regulatory system to replace what is already there.

You also appear not to understand that this will not be the EU forcing the UK out, it will be UK forcing itself out to…. nothing. Perhaps you’ve not come across this helpful chart, produced by the EU’s chief Brex**it negotiator, detailing just how the Maybot’s red lines limit the scope for any negotiations:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slide_presented_by_barnier_at_euco_15-12-2017.pdf

Just what of the Catch 22 nature of this conundrum have you not yet understood?

[JKL]

[quote quote=877825]what contingency plans do other BT subscribers have in the event of the UK exiting the EU and without any deal on 29March19 and there being a cessation of most civil aviation into and out of the UK?[/quote]

My contingency plan is to emigrate… Assuming I’ll be able to get a flight out! 😉 That said, as I’ll be in overseas on Brexit day, my bigger problem might be getting back first… 😉

On a more serious note, anecdotally I’m hearing of a lot of people – mostly highly skilled, well paid, professional types – who are similarly making plans to move overseas, or have already gone. Whatever happens with Brexit, it sounds like the brain-drain is already well underway.

I’m inclined to agree with canucklad’s opera hypothesis (although I suspect it’s less of a deliberate strategy and more a case of muddling through). For what it’s worth, I remain convinced, as I have since the beginning, that Brexit will not happen (albeit I think that’s less about politics and more about the practical realities of achieving it – I sense the penny is starting to drop, but it has a lot further to fall…) The only question – it seems to me – is how the present government can engineer a situation that allows it to ‘gracefully’ back out and provide a justification for doing so that is palatable to Brexit voters. Whether by design, coincidence, or incompetence, that appears to be well underway. Perhaps they’ll find a way to *say* they’ve achieved Brexit, but it will be in name only – and probably no-one will be happy with it 😉 Alternatively – forgive the cynicism – a nice little war with, oh let’s say Russia / North Korea / Iran / take your pick, would no doubt provide a suitable excuse… 😉

[FDOS_UK]

Anthony

When I read your well crafted analysis from yesterday evening, I wonder why you needed to resort to the invective in your OP?

Your case is so much stronger, when it is not wreathed in insults.

And FWIW, I agree with your position, but feel no need to denigrate those who take a different view.

To answer your question, as yet, I have made no contingency plans, as one cannot plan for the unknown – I do however, have some contingent responses in place.

[transtraxman]

With regard to what #877783 Charles-P said……

“Establish a new date for a second Referendum that will be 100% binding and open to all UK citizens and residents.”
In the previous referendum I was excluded from voting,together with a large number of Brits in this part of the world, as we are not UK residents. In fact we are all in favour of remaining inside the EU as could be expected since we are affected directly, and probably more than most. We have no doubt that if a second referendum on Brexit were celebrated, but including the terms agreed upon and the red lines established, then the result would be overturned. There are thousands of exiles who would welcome an opportunity to express their opinion. Let us do it.

[AlanOrton1]

Taking this questions from the OP:
I will now repeat my original question: just what contingency plans do other BT subscribers have in the event of the UK exiting the EU and without any deal on 29March19 and there being a cessation of most civil aviation into and out of the UK?

I don’t have any contingency plan at this stage. I also simply don’t believe there will be a cessation of most civil aviation into and out of the UK.
May I have to pay a little more to fly somewhere, possibly.
Could I have to queue a little longer on arrival, possibly.
Will I still be able to get on a plane and fly to the US, Asia, Spain as I have done every year for goodness knows how long, absolutely.
I simply do not see material, life changing results in business or leisure travel as a result of the UK leaving the EU.
It isn’t really for any of us to judge the concerns others may have around Brexit. I’m a fairly practically minded person and I suspect, even with a political fudge, people will still be able to get on a plane, train, boat and commute overseas for work or leisure etc.

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stevescoots, LuganoPirate

[canucklad]

Morning Anthony

Your contingency plan question is a good one, so I’ll answer it and then pose another ……..

Head to the pub, and support local business and wait for , and as I’ve said before , businessmen way above my paygrade sort it all out.
Ultimately, it’s been proven that politicians talk the talk, but pathetically can’t walk the walk !!

When making money is involved, decisions are made and politicians are forced to follow.
It’s the capitalist model we live under.

Having endured 2 emotive referendums I’m now finally sick fed of ALL the scaremongering, on all sides.
It reminds me of Aesop and his fable about the Shepard boy !
If I believed everything that has been said over the years, and in recent years the debate has become more fractured and extreme, then I’d have moved to a cave somewhere far away from the rioting hordes!

Most of us on this forum are in a privileged position, allowing us to travel, etc……therefore have potentially something of perceived value to lose.
How many of us put on the shoes of a single mother living on a deprived housing estate who had nothing to lose in the first place ? For those people 29/3/19 will come and go like any other day of their lives.

To JH_1234’s point…….As I said, I ‘m more convinced than ever that Brexit will be reversed. Anthony’s informative posts are predictable and have been part of the plan that falls into Act 3 .
We’ve had the BBC continually attack Brexit both covertly and overtly, in the same manner they manipulated the Scottish independence argument.
Now we have reports flying about all over the place to confirm these worst case scenarios. …. I’m not a conspiracy theorist, I predicted this purely because the EU and its compliant established Europhile governments , including Westminster are working their tried and tested template whenever a populace dissent .

Finally my contingency question……
What have you got planned if the EU unexpectedly (think collapse of communism) breaks apart due to as yet unknown forces drive nationalist governments to unilaterally rebel ?

[Charles-P]

[quote quote=877905]I suspect, even with a political fudge, people will still be able to get on a plane, train, boat and commute overseas for work or leisure etc.[/quote]

Alan, I admire your optimism and that of others here who clearly think some sort of “deal” will be done to ensure things stay the same. A case of good old British “keep calm and carry on” ? Very commendable, very much the right way to treat things. There is of course one major problem with that, one giant elephant in the room that will not go away. Our European partners don’t have that mindset, they don’t share that British view of the world. Let me give you a few examples.

The Port of Antwerp in Belgium has made provision for cargo from the UK to enter and leave via its non EU section. Processing time around five hours compared to the current twenty minutes for the average container ship. The knock on effects of this for trade between the UK and EU are going to be horrific and very expensive. The CEO of the Port, Jacques Vandermeiren was on Belgian TV recently and he described the lack of UK preparations as “frightening”.

The French government has in the past three months opened a new freight processing facility at the Channel Tunnel facility in Calais to process trucks from the UK in preparation for the UK leaving the Customs Union. At present trucks simply drive off at Calais and join the motorway, no delays, no costs. The new processing facility will take around two hours per truck in both directions.

The Dutch government has hired nearly 10,000 new Customs officers for Rotterdam and Schipol to process freight. They estimate the delay for the average lorry will be around four hours. They will pass on the costs for this in the form of a “processing fee” expected to be around Euro200 per truck per trip.

Meanwhile the UK has made ZERO provision at Dover Port or Eurotunnel Freight for truck customs processing, nothing, not a single thing despite the fact that freight processing at Dover relies on the fact there are no delays, there is simply no place for the trucks to park, even minor delays quickly escalate and the Freight Transport Association estimates that even a processing time of ten minutes per truck will cause tailbacks on the A2 of over 80 miles. The expected processing time is 30 minutes per truck !

The NHS operates on a ‘just in time’ delivery model for many drugs used on a daily basis, it does not have the storage facilities to keep more than three days supply of certain cancer drugs because they require specific conditions. The six principle NHS Cancer hospitals rely on the fact that the French manufacturer of these drugs can provide what is needed on an immediate basis. Nobody in the UK makes the drugs. Exporting drugs out of the EU requires full detailed customs clearance and takes around two days. The company has confirmed it will have no choice but to follow the regulations and has made clear to the NHS that it will do so after March 2019, despite multiple letters they have received no response whatsoever from either the NHS or the UK government. They have logged copies of these papers with their lawyers to ensure they can not be considered culpable when people in the UK start dying.

I could go on. People need to take seriously what is coming, unless Brexit is stopped or delayed the UK is going to be in very serious trouble very quickly. It is not in my nature to be negative but I don’t think people realise how bad it is going to get unless preparations are made.

Meanwhile Parliament has gone on its THREE month summer recess and the PM has gone on a walking holiday in Scotland.

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AnthonyDunn

[MartynSinclair]

The last time there was talk of a mass exodus based on a possible result of a vote, did not happen, even though the POTUS was elected. All the threats from business leaders, film stars etc, didn’t happen. In fact the reverse happened, corporate America was encouraged through tax advantages to return from their overseas hideaways.

The reason why morally there has to be another vote, is Cameron’s question was simply – in or out of the EU. The current strategy/solution appears that we are leaving in ‘name’ (BREXIT), whilst remaining in the Customs union and subject to EU rules and regs. A bit like a Rabbi saying, ‘this particular pig is now kosher’… (no I am not an anti semite, I am Jewish)….

The bigger shame is Junker and his cronies did not take the opportunity to lead a reform/shake up of the EU, but like any good communist system, everyone appears equal, except the people running it, at the top..

Just my view…

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stevescoots, LuganoPirate

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