[SimonS1]

What a bizarre posting Ian. How can you compare something that has been in service for 45 years with something in service for 6.

Give it 30 years and we will see, but even then you would expect a better record given improvements in airline safety (I believe it has been 11 years since a paying passenger died in a 747 incident).

Of course the new A380 is now selling more than an upgraded version of a 50 year old plane. It happens in other industries, such as the automotive industry.

[dutchyankee]

I too find this an odd comparison on so many points. True, the A380 has a back log of orders, but primarily for one client. Should anything happen to Emirates, or its home region implode into violence engulfing the entire region, then their order book could likewise implode.The program will not be a success, and will most probably never be profitable. Airlines are struggling to fill the planes, and Virgin, Malaysian and Thai are debating whether the plane is still viable to their needs. As for the safety record, that is simply an absurd comparison. Imagine had the A380 wing spar issues resulted in a fatal accident, what if the engine explosion on QF resulted differently? I think a 40 plus year history of the 747 looks pretty darn good, especially in light of what you could call `real` design fatalities. Almost every Hull loss can be attributed to terrorism, or human error (be it pilot or maintenance), and not design fault. Give me the 747 anyday, a proven design and a most elegant aircraft.

[IanFromHKG]

The stats I provided – and which I did point out weren’t directly comparable – were in response to a comment suggesting that there were more safety issues with the A380 than the B747. All I was doing is demonstrating that the A380 has never suffered a fatal event of any kind. Yes, it had some fairly major problems in its early days (as do many new aircraft) – but no hull losses. Given that an opinion regarding safety concerns had been raised in a way which implied that the B747 was an inherently safer aircraft, all I was doing was demonstrating – with facts not opinions – that the comparative safety issue could be argued the other way. What is bizarre about that?

But if you want a direct comparison:

Last 6 years, A380, no fatal incidents or hull losses

Last 6 years B747:
Kalitta Air, a 747-200F crashed into a farm field near Madrid, Colombia shortly after takeoff from El Dorado International Airport on July 7, 2008. The crew had reported an engine fire and were attempting to return to the airport. One of the aircraft’s engines hit a farmhouse; three people inside died.
UPS Airlines Flight 6, a 747-400F, crashed close to Dubai International Airport on September 3, 2010; two crew members died.
Asiana Airlines Flight 991, a 747-400F, crashed into the sea near Jeju island on July 28, 2011, two crew members died.
National Airlines Flight 102, 747-400BCF, stalled and crashed shortly after taking off from Bagram Airfield, in Bagram Afghanistan, on April 29, 2013; all 7 crew died

As to dutchyankee’s comment about “imagine…” – now THAT is bizarre… Not just veering away from facts into the realm of opinion, but into imagination as well…

[dutchyankee]

Ian, by my stating imagine is not veering from facts, it was simply a statement. When you state your facts you conveniently exclude what has caused the majority of the accidents you list thereby inferring there is a design fault. Once again, the majority of 747 hull loses have been non design related or do you blame the 747 design for the crash in Afghanistan which was due to a poorly secured cargo shifting at takeoff to point out just one of your list. You can prefer the A380, I can prefer the 747, but don’t exclude facts to give an unfair picture, and yes, just imagine if an A380 with a wing spar problem or if the QF flight couldn’t make it back, then your list of 747 hull loses and fatalities according to any design fault would be eclipsed. I pray it never happens. But all I said was imagine, not exactly bizarre. I so often agree with your posts but wonder why your negative comment here.

[Swissdiver]

Ian,

1/ statistically speaking it doesn’t make sense to compare an aircraft having hardly 100 units in the air with one having (I guess) about 5 to 10 times more.

2/ My main fear is linked to the use of this ridiculous joystick that led, among other reasons, to the AF447 crash as Captain Sully explained (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-33816_162-57587193/four-years-later-lessons-from-air-france-flight-447/)

[IanFromHKG]

dutchyankee, you invited us to IMAGINE that A380 incidents which IN FACT suffered no fatalities *had* suffered fatalities – I don’t really see how you can say that that isn’t veering from the facts. If you want to play that game, “imagine” that all the freighter incidents listed above were passenger planes with 400 people on board – what then?

I never made any inference about the causes of the incidents and didn’t intentionally exclude any facts – what I listed was taken almost verbatim from an airline safety site (edited only to make more sense, the only “fact” I deliberately removed was a statement that Madrid, Colombia was “a small village” because it didn’t seem relevant)

In any event, I think this thread is becoming a little too heated, and we should drop the subject, and accept that we have different views.,.

Happy travels, one and all…

[StandingThemUp]

“I did say the stats weren’t directly comparable, but they do seem to show that the B747 isn’t exactly the world’s safest aircraft.”

I won’t take sides, but when I flew bug smashers out of Southend, the Vulcan bomber trust parked their (non-airworthy) beast next door and their answer to the question from punters on open days – ‘didn’t your beastly aircraft kill a lot of people’ was ‘not as many as the 747.’

[SimonS1]

Ian_from_HKG – 25/07/2013 14:58 GMT
“All I was doing is demonstrating that the A380 has never suffered a fatal event of any kind”

With the greatest of respect this is a travel forum and 99.99% of users would be aware of that. I am not sure why you had to go to such a long convoluted explanation and strange comparison to tell us something we already knew?

[Edski777]

It is heartbreaking to see how little people on this forum seem to have even a basic understanding of statistics. It doesn’t leave much room for confidence in the educational systems the contributing members to this thread were exposed to.

For instance to improve your discussion: shouldn’t you have to take the first 150 airframes of the 747 and the first 150 airframes of the A380 to create a more reasonable comparison? Then compare the number of flights, incidents and accidents, distance flown,etc.?

The way the discussion is going right now is more along the lines of: There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

[Shanwick1249]

Swiss

As a seasoned traveller it seems odd to have such an ideological bias against one aircraft or another. If you resent the A380’s existence because of “illegal subsidies” then I’m afraid pretty much every other commercial aircraft in the world is off your list too – Boeing, Bombardier, COMAC, Embraer, Mitsubishi, Irkut and yes, Airbus, they have all received a little extra help, and is that so terrible? It’s one reason why the world is not owned by a single company whose airliner designs were all paid for by Strategic Air Command…

Your shaky ideology also seems to be defeated by a few cold hard facts. If the 747-8i is “not getting the commercial success it deserves” then that would suggest that perhaps it doesn’t deserve any. In the case of the -8i the market has clearly spoken and the market is not interested. The A380 has not been the enormous success that Airbus would like, but the -8i has been a spectacular failure. There is no other way of looking at it.

Your “ridiculous joystick” argument also shows a paper-thin understanding of the real issues at work – and at fault – in modern cockpits. You can do better.

Last but not least your review of the DLH -8i cabin pointed to some pretty horrible choices that have been made in terms of seat layout and personal space, and that matters so much more than what type of fish was for lunch. So all-in-all it was not a great argument for the one-time Queen of the Skies.

[Swissdiver]

Shanwick1249,

Yes, the A380 will never be profitable. The initial break-even point was 200 units, but it evolved to 400. And I think Airbus will not even deliver all the backlogged units since airlines start to realise they can’t fill in the plane (so I guess more A350s ahead). Now this is not my concern. My concern is about safety. The ridiculous joystick is worrying since that was one of the causes of the AF447 crash. You can question my capabilities in this field, but not Captain Sully’s (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-33816_162-57587193/four-years-later-lessons-from-air-france-flight-447/). If you read this forum regularly furthermore, you’ll see I didn’t wait for his comments to mistrust the ridiculous Airbus joystick.

Back to the topic of this thread, the B747 has something no plane will achieve, its image. It makes people dreaming (and taking photos like I’ve never seen on any other flight). It is icon. Its latest version is up to this standard. So far unfortunately, sales are limited. But it does deserve more.

[StandingThemUp]

Swissdiver – 27/07/2013 14:14 GMT

I really don’t think you understand enough about flying to condemn the Airbus flightstick.

it is true that in the case of AF447, conventional linked yokes MAY have assisted in identifying the problem, but it was not the root cause. If you don’t understand why I write may, then try flying an aircraft in a CB cell – I have and it is not easy to interpret things that would be plainly obvious in clear conditions.

The millions of hours of safe A320/330/340/380 operations speak volumes about the whole system.

[NameRemoved-18/12/14]

Great review Swissdiver

Out of interest, which other passenger airline has the 747-8?

[Swissdiver]

StandingThemUp,
“May” is fair. But I have the conviction is played a role.

[Swissdiver]

alexpo1,
Currently LH and Boeing Business Jet. Korean, Air China and Arik also ordered. Details on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_747-8

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