[rferguson]

BA announced today that it is converting 18 options it has on the 787 to firm orders to replace the oldest 747’s. It says the additional 18 787’s (variant not specified) will be delivered between 2017 and 2021.

This will see BA have 42 787’s on firm order.

[BigDog.]

…. further to RFerguson @20:22

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/03/us-iag-boeing-idUSBRE9320YD20130403

[AMcWhirter]

10 across on the A350 is a possibility, especially with the budget carriers.

Airbus has announced a high density 10-across version:

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/picture-10-abreast-a350-xwb-would-offer-unprecedented-operating-cost-advantage-223853/

While Air Asia X, which has ordered the A350 for its long distance routes says it will install 10-across seating:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2012/05/25/airasia-says-it-will-resume-europe-flights-with-a350xwb-in-2015/

[Swissdiver]

Shanwick,
Wrong!
Total orders: 1442 B777s all versions included vs. 1246 A330s

B747-8 sales are definitively slow, but the production continues…

[FormerlyDoS]

I’m not really interested in a Boeing v Airbus argument, but if one is going to analyse the 777 v the A330, then that should also include the A340 as well, as it was a competitor to the 777 before engine technology developed to allow the 330 to grow longer legs and was basically a 330 with 4 engines.

1246 + 279 (A340) = 1525

The 777 and the 330/340 have sold in large numbers.

[Swissdiver]

DoS,
Can we really consider the two (or three) aircraft to be in the same segment? Not sure since B777s carry substantially more passengers…
Anyway, to compare B777s and A330s, one should also look at the safety! No fatalities for the B777s, but 338 for the A330s!

[FormerlyDoS]

Yes, the A330/340 was a family, not two different models. The engine technology soon improved long haul performance for the 330, thus the limited 340 sales.

In the same way that the 777-200 and 777-300 are the same family.

I think your last sentence is illogical, to be honest. 338 deaths (although horrible) is a tiny fraction of the people who have flown on this type.

Equally, the 777 was involved in the BA38 incident, which was very nearly a major catastrophe, as was the Air France incident at Toronto, where the aircraft ended in a gully, in pieces. Neither of these incidents make either type dangerous and neither did the AF 330 or the hull lost during flight tests.

[Swissdiver]

Hull-loss accident then. 2 for the B777s, 6 for the A330s & 340s (4+2)…
(Source: http://www.aviation-safety.net/)

[Shanwick1249]

Swiss

Read what I said. Yes, the total 777 order book is larger – the 777 is a fantastic aircraft while the early A330 was underwhelming and sold poorly. The improved versions that followed are (almost) totally different aircraft. In *recent* years (as I said) the A330 has had impressive sales success for such an ‘old’ design. Airbus has taken 800 A330 orders since the 787 was launched and last year (for example) A330 versus 777 orders were 82 to 75.

As for the 747 it’s a beautiful aircraft whose time with us is passing. The older aircraft are disappearing fast and the 747-8i is DOA, a 5 billion-Dollar disaster. Don’t take my word for it; this is what Boeing’s latest 10K filing to the SEC says:

“We have a number of unsold Freighter and Intercontinental production positions beyond 2013. If we are unable to obtain orders for multiple Freighter aircraft in 2013 consistent with our near-term production plans, we may be required to take actions including reducing the number of airplanes produced and/or building airplanes for which we have not received firm orders… If market and production risks cannot be mitigated, the program could face an additional reach-forward loss that may be material.”

The only things keeping the 747-8 alive are freighter sales and they have evaporated. Material losses = shut down the line.

Your safety argument is spurious and unworthy – but if you really want to follow that line the A330 losses say more about pilot training than the aircraft, I would suggest.

[Shanwick1249]

BD

That Reuters report is wrong when it says IAG is talking to Boeing about a 747 order for Iberia (this to an airline that dumped its 747s long ago).

What the IAG statement actually says is:

“For Iberia, IAG has reached agreement with Boeing to secure commercial terms and delivery slots that could lead to an order for Boeing 787s. Firm orders will only be made when Iberia has restructured and reduced its cost base and is in a position grow profitably.”

Going back to Boeing would be a big step for IB but shows how IAG is trying to impose some sort of fleet commonality on the group over the longer term.

I am surprised the Reuters piece has not been corrected.

[dutchyankee]

I do not actually understand the comparisons of order books being drawn between the 777 family and the A330 Family. The A330-200 was not initially meant as a direct competitor to the 777 but to the 767 Family. The A330 capacity is far less than that of the 777, passenger and cargo, as well as versus belly cargo, and range up until recently was very restricted. Certainly, improvements to the A330 engine technology and efficiency has improved the range, but the aircraft is by no means a serious competitor to the 777 family. Compare the order book of both the 777/767 families and that of the A340/A330 Families and you will see which family of aircraft are undoubtedly the market leader. Further, the delays to the 787, and available delivery slots (prior of course to the grounding), have probably had more of an impact on increased A330 sales, along with even top up orders of 767 series aircraft, while waiting for the 787. The A350 family is the true direct competitor to the 777, and if their pre-sales are any Judge, Boeing will need to make a decision soon on their 777X family, which they will no doubt do. Emirates is pushing them, and Boeing will no doubt listen.

As for the 747-8 series, it is a shame it hasn’t been more successful, but I wouldnt call the A380 a resounding success either, and until Airbus sell well over 500 of them, it too will be a failure.

[AnastasiaBeaverhouzen]

Well the announcement this morning:International Airlines Group (IAG) has reached agreement with Boeing for new longhaul aircraft for the group’s fleet.
IAG plans to convert 18 existing Boeing 787s options into firm orders for British Airways. They will be used to replace some of the airline’s Boeing 747-400 aircraft between 2017 and 2021.
For Iberia, IAG has reached agreement with Boeing to secure commercial terms and delivery slots that could lead to an order for Boeing 787s. Firm orders will only be made when Iberia has restructured and reduced its cost base and is in a position grow profitably.
British Airways’ 787s will be powered by Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines. The engine order includes a comprehensive maintenance package with total care agreement.

And no I haven’t vanished, just had to deal with some family bereavement issues. I read everything you boys write.

Fondest

Anastasia.

[Shanwick1249]

DutchYankee

Yes, it’s totally a tangent but driven by the dismissal of Airbus aircraft as “flying toys”. This is an assessment that the market doesn’t share – was the point.

At the risk of diving off on another tangent, you can’t combine the 767 and 777 – they are two different classes (and generations) of aircraft.

As another aside, the A330 has been doing steady business since the 787 was announced, not simply after Boeing’s schedule went off the rails. The A330 order book is a pretty good riposte to some of the nonsense claims that have been made for the 787’s superiority in all things – and again, that’s for a ‘previous generation’ aircraft.

And finally, the A380 has not been a resounding success but it’s alive and kicking, with nearly 10 times the commercial airline orders of the 747-8i. Airbus will get to 500 A380s – far far slower than the company would have liked. Boeing will never get to 100 747-8is and right now even 50 in airline service is looking like a stretch.

[dutchyankee]

Shanwick1249,

I agree with most of your points, and I am fully aware that the 767 and 777 are completely different airframes, but my point is that the comparison of the order books was between the A330 and 777 whereby the A330-200 was a direct competitor to the 767, and the improved/enlarged A330-300 competes against the 777-200. Therefore simply comparing the A330 order book with that of the very successful 777, which currently sits very much in it’s own niche, is not correct, and hence my suggestion of combining with the 767 order book.

There is no question the A330 has been doing well, but you must also accept that a number of top up A330 orders as well as 767 orders from existing customers of those types have been made due to the delay of the 787. I dont believe I have made any ‘nonsense’ claims about the 787’s superiority (perhaps that was in reference to others) as I am a fan of both manufacturers. I love the Airbus narrow body family, and am a huge fan of the Boeing 777, and definitely would prefer the A330 over the 767. I think the 787 has all the possibilities of being a great game changer, but if the issues cant be fixed permanently and quickly, it could be game over.

The A380 for me is an amazing feat of engineering, but for me can never beat the elegance of the 747. I am hopeful that the positive experience of the latest 747 in various fleets might spur on some orders, but I agree with you, the chances of this are slim, and with 777-300’s carrying almost the same loads with vast belly cargo space (and the A350 probably as well), why opt for four engines when two seem to be doing the job better

[BeckyBoop]

Do the 787 or a350’s have variations that will carry the same amount of pax as a 747?

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