[SimonS1]

So about a month away. Sounds more encouraging.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18409926.gatwick-airport-flights-start-may/

[MarcusGB]

Thanks SimonS1.

We are currently in a Medical perspective, at “A Peak” of infections, with a reduction in admissions to Hospitals.
The LockDown, has enabled lessening of the numbers infected, but as the Government keep stating, not taken the NHS above its Capacity.
This is going to prolong the number of infections spreading them flatter, but what happens when we come out of lockdown?
both Singapore and Germany are going into a 2nd peak!

The NHS care and ITU and Covid treatment facilities are here to stay for a long while yet.
No set symptoms yet, no understanding why some asymptomatic, or once infected, some become ill again.
Does the virus remain in the body and reactivate, or do you have immunity?
What are the set treatment paths, or drugs…we know nothing of this yet.

Whether we can fly or not, will depend on lockdowns by The Government, other countries agreeing to us landing and being there, and will their Society be Open for business, hotels stores etc>?
Currently the EU has Closed Borders from any Non EU Citizens. As does Singapore, Australia, NZ etc. Others wont have us either!

Like you , i want to fly, I want to support our Airlines and get up n going for the Economy. And I need a holiday!
But will we be allowed to do so, and where can we go that will permit us to do so, being the highest death rate Country now in Europe?

I fear we need some months yet, and until we have a proven vaccine, Countries will remain inwards looking and not be welcoming flights or visitors from Europe.
Maybe we get flying inside Europe, but outside will be bureaucratically loaded for so,e time to enable travel.
But i share your hopes and enthusiasms completely.
But we are not in control of our own travel at this time. We do not have our own freedoms or choices again yet.

[FaroFlyer]

Interesting to see how Gatwick fares if this is true

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52489013

[AMcWhirter]

Maybe without BA.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52489013

[FaroFlyer]

[postquote quote=997171][/postquote]

Conflictingly

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-british-airways-expecting-to-cut-a-quarter-of-pilots-11981107

This article says: “the airline cannot rule out suspending flight operations entirely from its already reduced schedule at Heathrow airport.”

Perhaps they are going back to the regions. No need for a second runway at Gatwick, or for Doris to lie down in front of the bulldozers at Heathrow.

[AMcWhirter]

“Doris” !

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Jacob, TupeloKid, ImissConcorde

[GivingupBA]

[postquote quote=997175][/postquote]

I don’t know, Prime Minister Doris Johnson – it has a certain ring to it

Made me laugh anyway, thanks

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Montysaurus, tomwjsimpson, ImissConcorde, AMcWhirter

[FaroFlyer]

[postquote quote=997175][/postquote]

Sorry about bringing a political note to a BT post but, during the hustings, our 5 year old grandson asked his other Grandmother: “Will Doris Bonson be our next Prime Minister?”. Her answer was: “I hope so, as I don’t want any of the others”

Since then the current PM has been known as Doris

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tomwjsimpson, AMcWhirter

[J_Pathmore]

Governments around the world have really botched this, and sadly our beloved travel industry will take most of the hit. By taking an approach of “save EVERY life” this single factor analysis is why so many politicians are either dumb or have misaligned incentives. Over the past two weeks we’ve seen concrete data that shows (a) the actual death rate is between 0.1 – 0.5% and not 2-4% as previously thought, (b) the death rate for those under 45 is ~0.01% (but more importantly over 99% of deaths are those with pre-existing conditions), (c) that rate is 0 per 100,000 for people in NYC (the global epicenter) under the age of 18. Anyone looking for backup data here can go onto the NYC CDC official website. It’s there in black and white.

Now if some reader here can justify the continuation (note “continuation”) of shut down measures for low risks groups I will be incredibly surprised. By ‘tranching’ society into one holistic group and thereby assuming everyone has the same level of risk we are destroying people’s lives and livelihood as we know. Low risk folk (who scientists now deem anyone below ~65 without a comorbidity) need to get out of the house, go to work, step on planes, keep the economy going and build natural immunity – especially those below 45, who have a greater chance of dying if they travel 9 miles in a car 5 days a week than from this virus.

To all Brits who are critical of the government’s lack of travel bans – can you see a statistically significant difference in the death and infection rates in the UK when compared to France, Italy, Spain, the US? You know where this is going … travel bans only work if total in nature – including citizens of the UK – and within the first 2-3 weeks of an outbreak.

It’s time that mainstream news reports “good” news that can allow the public to take calculated risks based on personal factors. The notion that “we have changed the predictive models” is foolish – these models had incorrect inputs to begin with, and because all viruses tend to be exponential in nature (a transmission rate above 1.0 becomes exponential), these models had an exponential error running right the way through. The US was never destined for 2mm deaths. Herd immunity would have been reached long before. Now we will see a second wave throughout the world (perhaps not NYC, ironically) as the virus continues to spread.

Please do more educated reading, and focus on the positives. The state of NY was told they would need 90,000 hospital beds. At the peak a few weeks ago, 18,000 beds were full – and these people were likely infected long before the lockdown was announced.

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TupeloKid

[CathayLoyalist2]

So an observation J-Pathmore. I have not studied the stats you quote so will not comment on their voracity. To say most/every government has got this wrong is quite a statement. I am not sure if you were the one to make the call to reduce lockdown in the current circumstances you would say “just look at the stats” and take decision. And if it all went pear shaped? So little is known about this virus albeit more is being learnt everyday. I think the fear of a 2nd and 3rd wave is real and hence caution is prudent. Germany and Singapore are looking at potentially second waves. These are momentus decisions for any government and I for one will support whatever decision is made and glad is not me who is having to make these decisions

[SimonS1]

[quote quote=997178]Governments around the world have really botched this, and sadly our beloved travel industry will take most of the hit. By taking an approach of “save EVERY life” this single factor analysis is why so many politicians are either dumb or have misaligned incentives.[/quote]

Ditto I couldn’t comment on the stats either way, however it shows the challenges. On the one hand there are those who blame the Government for not shutting everything down in totality. On the other hand others blame the Government for over-reacting and shutting too much down. Truly there are no winners here.

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TupeloKid

[esselle]

[postquote quote=997185][/postquote]

Agreed, however it has given some journalists the opportunity to ask the most unimaginably daft and smarta*se questions at the daily briefing!

[canucklad]

[quote quote=997178]Governments around the world have really botched this,[/quote]

Start of an excellent post….might not agree with all of it, but do agree with the sentiment …I’ll ad that our politicians have got away with murder at these briefings, especially now that they can control the Q&A’s . Our journalists have also let the side down by not asking more hard hitting questions.
And no disrespect to Captain Tom, quite the opposite actually , but I find it distasteful that his achievement is being used as an example to the rest of us to tow line and accept the blitz spirit in the name of greater good –whatever that is .

It’s clear that I’m not an expert, I’m nowhere near able to opine a personal viewpoint that wouldn’t e able to be shot to pieces by an experts jargonistic reply.

5 weeks into my “benevolent house arrest” , any amount of euphemistic phrases and government branding can’t change that fact. Remember our own media referred to Wuhan residents being forced into house arrest by the authoritarian regime back when all this started.

As an ordinary citizen wanting some clarity into the future , and after the sacrifice I’ve already had to make to my way of life ( Massive realization that’s its miniscule compared to others) a few simple points I’d like to get my head around .

Managing Health Risk
I’m one of the 80% of the population that have through lock down self-isolated for 5 weeks plus or (35+ days )
We’re told the virus has a life of 7- 14 days and importantly is not an airborne virus , therefore does that mean 80% of the population can now be considered free of the virus ? (Had it & recovered or never had it)
Remove the R/O number from that population and focus on the 20% of essential workers , and what is the R/O number in that group?
Again tweaking the above stats based on essential workers going home and taking into account those same workers who’ve already self-isolated because a family member has had sniffles etc,
Why are essential workers not being forced into rapid mandatory testing . The deaths in care homes and prisons would suggest that they have now inadvertently become the greatest risk to the rest of us ?

Economy questions
Will business rateable values in the new norm be reduced by 67% to reflect enforced social distancing
What indicator of business non-recovery (liquidation) will be used to stop paying furloughed wages so money can be diverted to the cheaper (tax payers purse) option of paying universal credit rather than continuing to prop up non-existent salaries.

Scottish specific question to Nicola Sturgeons experts … Can we /are you willing to continue to pay furlough salaries to the hospitality sector well into 2021 in line with the first ministers comments about the new norm?
If not, how do you intend to make up for the double whammy to the public pot, a short fall in taxation caused by a million + people joining the dole queue, potentially for a generation
And how she’ll manage that breakdown , particularly in rural Scotland where passing trade is the life blood for those towns ?

Conspiracy question
Why with a population of a billion plus, and them not acting immediately (similar to us) China , Beijing and Shanghai specifically have come out of this with less than 4000 deaths ?

Excuse my rant, but I’ve now been stuck indoors for well over a month watching friends jobs go down the pan , and we’re told to just sit it out
have a great Thursday everybody

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TupeloKid

[MartynSinclair]

[quote quote=997178]travel bans only work if total in nature[/quote]

Exactly….. Most (not all) of Asia and NZ seemed to understand that at the right time….

[FaroFlyer]

Canucklad wrote
Conspiracy question
Why with a population of a billion plus, and them not acting immediately (similar to us) China , Beijing and Shanghai specifically have come out of this with less than 4000 deaths ?

But China did act immediately, and totally, as soon as they realised it was not just a handful of related deaths. Although the first “suspicious” death was end December it was only as Chinese New Year started, just after mid January, that China realised, and admitted, that there was a problem. Don’t forget that China is made up of 26 provinces just like the EU is 28, or 27, who all have autonomy. Wuhan was slow to react, and certainly slow to notify the Chinese National Government. This from the FT shows the spread https://www.ft.com/content/975d8fbc-3fed-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433d

Wuhan also made a major mistake allowing a street banquet to take place on 19 January to celebrate CNY. By 22 January only 9 people had died, but the Province, then Country, entered lock-down within days. The UK lock-down started on March 23, some 2 months after China, so to say the UK acted immediately is stretching credibility.

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canucklad

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