[SimonS1]

And of course it depends on how much reliance you place on the figures from China.

[J_Pathmore]

Apologies to anyone I offended – for those who are skeptical about the facts I quoted, please find them here: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths-04192020-1.pdf. Note that since this was completed NYC antibody tests have come back at 25% positive (there is a two week lag between antibody positive testing and having the disease, so this is likely going to continue increasing significantly and will lower the effective death rate).

The point is that current government policies undermine democracy. There is no debate. If a virus broke out and killed equally across ages at a rate of 20%, 10%, 6% … even 1.5%, there might be a strong case that due to equal and high risk everyone should stay home. And I believe if this was the case, everyone WOULD stay home. Fortunately, we have in recent weeks seen that this virus is nowhere near as lethal as it was previously thought to be (again, not to take away from the tragedy that has befallen families around the world). This is positive. It’s time for the smartest minds leading our countries to figure out how to co-exist with the virus. Mitigation is not the answer in the medium-long term; herd immunity through a vaccine or natural methods is how this ends. Note too that the flu vaccine has been around for years, they’ve tried to perfect it, and it usually has a ~50% effective rate…

I have yet to see a plan outside of Sweden that accounts for an increase in infections once lockdowns end, but gets people back to work and to socialize, and keeps them there. I think, absent of summer luck, every country will move towards the Swedish model, at a tremendous economic and social cost.

[nevereconomy]

Seems not everyone optimistic about the end May timelne. BA just cancelled my MAN-LHR for June 16 – still only one daily flight for that date. My LHR-PHL still showing but I think it highly unlikely that it will be an approved airport for UK and EU flights by then – if in fact any US airport is. For a great many easons, all of which are in the news daily, I cannot see countries rushing to allow travel from Europe or the UK.

[SimonS1]

I did read about the antibody tests in US. Clearly a high percentage of the population with exposure.

Also several other positives today.

Pfizer aiming for 20m doses of a vaccine by end 2020.

Trials of Remdesivir seem to be positive (albeit early stages).

And Boris to set out a plan next week for opening up the economy.

Looks like their is a chink of light down the tunnel.

[capetonianm]

Looks like their is a chink of light down the tunnel.

I was on the point of reporting your posting as inappropriate!
(Only joking!)

Strange coincidence, I am just watching Martin Lewis’ Money show and at this exact moment he used the phrase ‘chink of light’.

2 users thanked author for this post.

Montysaurus, TupeloKid

[SimonS1]

[postquote quote=997203][/postquote]

Lol.

My sister and Mum are booking to go to Portugal at end May. Flights £99 return on Easyjet.

Yesterday I was doubtful but I’m sensing now that things might be moving and the Government are realising they need to get Britain moving.

[Montysaurus]

“Que sera, sera” as Doris Day’s mother used to say.

[n166]

[postquote quote=997199][/postquote]

surely one of the main reasons it hasn’t been as lethal as first thought is because of the lockdown measures..

also regarding your point on the smartest minds figuring out how to co-exist with the virus.. that’s exactly what is being done now. the best thing for us to do is wait a bit whilst they figure it out. the smartest minds in the world are not telling us to ignore the restrictions and go outside. obviously a lockdown is not a medium-long term measure. we are still in the short term period. a lot of healthcare systems can’t cope with the increased # of cases that would come with easing the lockdown

and how exactly is it undermining democracy? it’s very easy to say that sitting in your armchair, but if an elderly member of your family caught the virus from a young healthy person, you’d feel different. also, society is not split down the middle between at risk and not at risk people – a lot of younger people live with elderly people who are at risk of the virus.

i get that getting back to as close to normal as we can is something we all want but let’s not let what we want get in the way with what makes sense

2 users thanked author for this post.

Johnnyg, ASK1945

[Author]

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