[onajetplane]

It almost feels inevitable news that Flybe has gone into administration. Have watched with interested how they have essentially tried to launch an airline during very uncertain times! Moreover, they seem to have been plagued with delays since launching. A key red flag for me was the fact they cut a lot of flights during the winter citing lack of operational capacity, but yet continued to launch new routes.

I regularly fly BHD – LHR, and whilst I never used Flybe on this route – the competition was always welcomed. Given Aer Lingus also recently exited the route, BA now have the total monopoly so I am less than optimistic about future fares.

Despite not really being surprised, another sad day for UK aviation.

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tomwjsimpson

[Tom Otley]

It certainly is – news story here

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64436500

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Johnnyg, tomwjsimpson

[AMcWhirter]

The analysis of Flybe Mark 1 we published almost three years ago is almost as relevant today as in 2020.

Analysis: Why did Flybe fail?

Some travellers just don’t get it … even today.

One disappointed customer was saying his alternative now would be Loganair. But he said the problem with Loganair was that its fares are so high !

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red_robbo

[transtraxman]

So as domestic carriers, we are left with Loganair and Eastern Airways. Apart from the two Guernsey airlines am I missing anyone out as a UK domestic passenger carrying airline? To rebuild a basic network it might well be necessary for Loganair and Eastern to expand their operations to cover some of the deficit.

If we reflect on the previous position, we find that Flybe took over the operation of BA Connect (just after this was set up and before it could prove its worth) out of Manchester(principally) and other regional airports. Before that was set up, Aer Lingus ran its first BAC111 jet routes from Dublin through Manchester and on to European destinations. These were multiple, ranging from Copenhagen in the north to Rome in the south. All of which were very successful, and are viable routes.

So there seem to be two alternatives for a full service airline to reinstate those connections….
1) BA Euroflyer could set up a branch in Manchester, with locally employed crews and based aircraft, to run a network of Business and Leisure routes to the most popular (and profitable) European destinations as well as London.
This type of operation could be extended to Birmingham, Newcastle, Belfast, and Edinburgh and/or Glasgow helped by BA Cityliner for use when the aircraft are not needed at London City.
2) The second possibility is to use the benefit of Aer Lingus´ British operating licence to set up the same or similar operation based in Manchester which will connect up with Aer Lingus´ long range North American flights from Manchester. Obviously, connections to/from the aforementioned British cities into Aer Lingus´ networks from Manchester and Dublin would ensure the build up of part of a British domestic network

3) the third, and least appealing alternative, is to let the LCCs take over the missing routes – Easyjet, Ryanair, and Vueling, even with working agreements, are not the best illustrations for full-service airlines.

Last but not least, would Virgin Atlantic(or a subsidiary) look again at the setting up of another domestic airline – Quite frankly I doubt it!

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cwoodward, tomwjsimpson

[AMcWhirter]

It’s a fluid situation but we now see some airlines and at least one train company offering to help.

As I write this post at midday:

1. LNER is offering free rail travel to Flybe passengers due to travel on January 28 or 29. Bear in mind though that LNER’s network is limited to its own services

2. BA has o/w £50 rescue fares (plus taxes/fees/charges) between LHR and Belfast/Amsterdam/Newcastle.

3. Loganair is relaunhing its Manchester-Newquay route from February 10.

4. Ryanair has also introduced rescue fares.

In truth it was a similar scenario back in 2020 when a number of airlines, rail and bus firms stepped in with rescue fares. So expect others to follow.

[openfly]

But if Flybe’s fares had been as high as Loganairs they would probably still be flying!

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red_robbo, tomwjsimpson

[AMcWhirter]

This evening The Times [paywall] reports that Flybe had been losing £5 million a month.

Analyst and Business Traveller contributor John Strickland is quoted as saying Flybe struggled with its “small size, a handful of planes and very limited network.

“Regional airlines is a challenging market … there are not so many small routes that can really make money.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/flybe-lost-5m-a-month-before-collapse-qcv6sq8b6

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red_robbo, onajetplane

[MarkCymru]

I didn’t fly FlyBe 2.0, but I had the misfortune of flying 1.0 from Cardiff a lot. Their hand baggage policy was so bizarre that Gate8 had to make a special version of one of their bags to comply with it; on a half full flight, FlyBe still enforced the policy rigidly, forcing passengers to check in a bag that was 5mm over the idiosyncratic size. The crew were usually fine; the ground staff made the Heathrow security screeners seem charming and efficient. I used to drive to Bristol (40 minutes further) to take Easyjet instead. A big part of FlyBe’s failure was that it was such a bad airline; a better one might survive.

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PhilipHart, AMcWhirter, onajetplane

[onajetplane]

I have to admit, I did have the choice of taking a flybe flight late last year. The time was slightly preferable. I decided not to book it given I had just seen the repeated delays and cancellations etc and so they just never instilled any confidence to win me back as a customer. I presume this was the same for many. Relatives also made the decision to fly Aer Lingus Regional for a recent trip despite Flybe would have actually been more economical.

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Midlands Traveller

[Midlands Traveller]

I used to use Flybe 1.0 quite a bit between BHX and BHD, prior to the purple planes, and they were a good reliable option for that short flight.

But in my opinion they steadily got worse in the following years. I had a really bad experience departing AMS where a tyre blew on the taxi out, the captain reassuring us that we would have been fine to take off on one tyre on that side, only for said tyre to blow out on the taxi back. God only knows how it would have gone if we had started take-off. (Needless to say we were stranded overnight).

I tried 2.0 last year. Not good and I didn’t use them since. There has been some comment in the media this morning that LHR and AMS are expensive and the wrong airports for this type of carrier, apparently the plan behind LHR at least was to try and make some money from the slots.

If travellers such as onajetplane, myself and presumably many others didn’t have the confidence in them then not surprising the inevitable has happened.

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MarkCymru, AMcWhirter

[ARJ100]

Inevitable but also a development for the best I think. Flybe 2.0 existed primarily to extract value from its slot portfolio and in the mean time they just needed to operate some routes to show they were a real airline (and ideally routes that covered their costs too). The low-hanging fruit had already been taken with Loganair, Blue Islands, Eastern and even easyJet entering previous Flybe strongholds and Flybe were left with operating either niche routes or attempting to compete on ‘trunk’ routes which it didn’t have the treasure chest to support (nor ultimately the aircraft to even operate).

The UK regional market really does not need to be more fragmented with short-minded competition (and in many ways would benefit from some consolidation). A lot of the key routes are not price elastic to demand and the core passenger profile are willing to pay for a reliable service that is not chopped and changed at the drop of a hat. Loganair seem to be providing this well (when not facing competition from Flybe/easyJet) and I hope this continues.

[AMcWhirter]

[quote quote=1338664]Loganair seem to be providing this well (when not facing competition from Flybe/easyJet) and I hope this continues.[/quote]

Indeed ARJ100.

That’s why I noted above that when Loganair became an alternative to Flybe some were saying that was fine “but Loganair’s fares are so high.”

Sadly the average traveller in the UK does not understand the economics of operating domestic flights.

And what of Loganair ?

As we reported _ see Online news October 9, 2022 – the present owners have placed Loganair up for sale.

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red_robbo, tomwjsimpson

[AMcWhirter]

[quote quote=1338653]. I had a really bad experience departing AMS where a tyre blew on the taxi out, the captain reassuring us that we would have been fine to take off on one tyre on that side, only for said tyre to blow out on the taxi back.[/quote]

There was also an incident upon landing at Schiphol in 2017.

The right-hand landing gear collapsed upon landing.

This BBC video shows the aircraft landing on to its side and passengers jumping out.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-39070490

Netherlands’ investigators later determined that the flight crew received a false indication that the undercarriage was down and locked.

Flightglobal.com [paywall]

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/gear-collapse-flybe-q400-crew-had-false-lock-indication/128331.article

[ARJ100]

Agreed – I think a core issue here was that Flybe always had too much capacity to fill and people became accustomed to flying around the country for £39. When you look at airline operating costs a break even fare on a UK domestic is around £90-£100 pp one-way (and even more on smaller aircraft). I’m hoping the sale of Loganair is not reflective of its financial performance, but even with some of the ‘high’ fares they charge, these are often necessary due to high operating costs of aircraft like the E145 as well as the knock on effect of small aircraft on landing charges etc. Profit margin for FY2021/2022 was about 5% so it will be interesting to see the figures for FY2022/2023 after a year of more ‘normality’.

[AMcWhirter]

[quote quote=1338670]Agreed – I think a core issue here was that Flybe always had too much capacity to fill and people became accustomed to flying around the country for £39.[/quote]

Exactly. That was the very point I made in our analysis of 2020 – see an earlier posting – I mean it was ridiculous to think an airline could match or even undercut UK rail’s Advance fares let alone the standard rail fares.

And yes those Dash-8s had too many seats and had little passenger appeal. Loganair has the right aircraft with the right size. However they are more expensive to operate … but then Loganair targets the corporate market.

Perhaps as consultant Robert Boyle is saying there’s another reason too …

The timing of FlyBe’s latest bankruptcy filing seems awfully convenient from the perspective of selling off its LHR and AMS slots. There are few moments of the year when an airline “owns” both its winter and summer slots. This is one such. Fraud office, please take note.

— Robert Boyle (@rboyle) January 30, 2023

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red_robbo, onajetplane, tomwjsimpson, DerekVH, ARJ100

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