[Anonymous]

[LeTigre]

Hi All,

After reading on other sites that IAG have had a fleet rejig, I decided to enlighten you all on it as well, here’s the IAG presentation:

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MTYxMzc4fENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1

After passing going to page 37 to note Iberia’s new business class seat is fully flat and looks quite snazzy, please move on to look at page 19 where the fleet chart in question can be found.

Changes:
-Iberia’s long haul fleet will be substantially smaller than expected, so expect faster retirements of A343s
-BA now plan to retire 9 747s by 2015, not 7
-BA plan to retire 7 long-haul 767s by 2015, not 13
-BA plan to add an additional 9 777s (no doubt 77Ws) by 2015, not 5, as previously envisaged. However, it appears that 3 older 777s are to removed, slightly offsetting the increase.
-BA plan to add 12 787s by 2015, not 16. The reason is not stated but has the potential to be either BA deferrals or also very likely Boeing delays.
-BA plan to add 9 A380s by 2015 (unchanged)

So overall, good for BA bad for Iberia, but the customers will definitely like the new products. For BA: approximately 19 retirements are offset by about 27 new deliveries- so that means growth.

[Str8Talking]

Thank you for this LeTigre, very interesting. Another point that jumped at me:

– consolidate into two terminals at Heathrow from c.2014

Watching this space!

[JamesBAgold]

Very interesting. Thanks.

What still remains unclear is short haul fleet renewal in the business plan for Gatwick despite the positive noises being made about both the success of restructuring the cost base of the Gatwick operation and short haul standalone profitability.

[LeTigre]

Both interesting points, thank you.

Regarding Gatwick, it seems BA are very happy there now as they announced in that presentation that their costs are now in line with LCC competitors. BA only have 10 A320s being delivered before 2015, no A320s being removed, however, the “other short-haul” category on that chart shows a reduction by about 14 by 2015. My guess, it that while specifics haven’t been announced, the new A320s will mean that the oldest LHR ones can be sent to Gatwick after a refresh. Iberia are also removing 25 A320s by 2015 so what happens to those I don’t know.

Regarding Heathrow terminals my guess is consolidation at T3+5 in 2014 as T1 will be closed, T2 is star, T3 has oneworld plus unaligned, T4 has skyteam plus unaligned. T3 already has a large BA operation including lounges. Adding BA to T2 would be unfair as not only was it promised to star, but BA already has the best terminal at T5, although, Heathrow has compromisd already by allowing Aer Lingus into T2.

[VintageKrug]

Interesting presentation.

BA will be T2 and T5. Aer Lingus back in the fold before too long.

[Hippocampus]

It’s encouraging that more 777 aircraft are being ordered. This points to more capacity growth with the extra bmi slots.

[JamesBAgold]

“BA will be T2 and T5” – If BA consolidates in the new T2 where would that leave its Oneworld partners currently in T3? Ideally being co-terminus with shared operations/lounges is what they would want but will there be capacity for Oneworld in T2?

Space will free up in T3 when T2 opens. Isn’t it a more likely terminal for BA to consolidate in despite being the terminal from hell?

[simdesman]

Yes T2 was designed for Star… but BMI had the largest star presence, and with BMI now being bag of BA slots they have a foothold in T2.

T2 will be quite compelling compared to T3, so I expect it’ll be a tough decision for IAG.

[AdrianHenryAsia]

The Purser on a recent flight mentioned to me that BA would consolidate into T2/Heathrow East when ready

[AnthonyDunn]

Chanced upon this from Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-30/british-airways-reviews-makeup-of-london-gatwick-fleet.html

The BA LGW fleet comprises some 19 B737-400s most of which are well past their best, as quite a few of us have discovered at first hand.

With the loss of 14 “other” airframes between now and end 2015, mentioned in the IAG Capital Markets Day 2012 presentation, it is a reasonable assumption that BA will indeed be cascading ex-LHR A320s to LGW as the B737s are, at last, withdrawn.

It’s very interesting to read Silla Maizey’s remarks about BA LGW’s cost base is now competitive with EJ courtesy of their outsourcing campaign.

Oh, and as for BA’s future LHR terminal pairing, who is the biggest operator and pays the most? I think that the term is “he who pays the piper calls the tune…” That’s why, should they choose to have it, BA will have the new T2 and T5. It’s exactly what LH or any other *Alliance airline would insist upon were they to be in a comparable position.

I had assumed that it was baggage as well as passenger connection issues that would determine the future terminal pairing but, it would appear that this is not the case. In case you have not seen the plans for LHR’s post-T5 Transfer Baggage Tunnel:

http://www.teambfk.co.uk/proven-delivery/heathrow-baggage/

[VintageKrug]

That’s the crux of the issue; the new design for LHR really takes away the issue of co-location of airlines, as all the central terminals will eventually have airside links, and more importantly fast baggage links.

BA would obviously prefer the best facilities and I can’t see them giving up their toehold in T1/T2.

We have seen recently that the alliances are perhaps not as strong as we once thought, and while being mindful of those alliances, it doesn’t seem essential to co-locate, especially if shared services (e.g. lounges) will eventually be accessible airside.

[BeckyBoop]

Also noticed there is 2 A318s on order -will these be to expand the LCY-JFK service?

[simdesman]

I must have missed these 2 extra a318s – where did you spot these? I suspect that these might be going somewhere other than JFK if this is the case.

Does anyone know if Star and T2 is actually set in stone? Was there ever anything in writing as such?

OW is the dominant alliance, mainly due to BA (obviously) but also a large AA presence. Could IAG realistically negotiate to take the rest of OW into T2 with it?

[Henkel.Trocken]

There were written agreements about T2 with *A and it was part of the deal for letting BA have sole access to T5. Michael Bishop led the negotiations!

I would imagine they relate to *A rather than particular airlines as at the time Continental were busy joining *A although they had just moved into T4.

It’s probably time for a rethink on the whole terminal thing but of course if BAA try to force things it could cost them a fortune.

According to the station managers of both TG and SQ they are expecting to move along with SK and TK so it looks like it’s all still going ahead.

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