[Hippocampus]

@RichHI1 It really depends on what slot divesutures would be required and how specific these are. A small number of slots at off peak times would not be a problem. A more significant number including slots suitable for lucrative long haul routes would be a problem, not least with the bmi deal carrying significant risk.

As BA partners in one way or another with so many Oneworld partners I assume slots would have to be disposed to non-Oneworld airlines.

[RichHI1]

Yes I think so, may be UAL back to JFK again although thye now have EWR, maybe Delta would also be looking for something. We have heard a lot about Chinese opportunities, maybe they too would be lining up for slots for new flights from PRC?

[StephenLondon]

Would divestiture be necessary? Even with buying BMI, would BA’s slot control at LHR be less than LH / KL / AF at their own hubs? I think the competition commission would look odd if they blocked it.

[RichHI1]

I do not think they would block it but I would see it unlikely that they would not demand some divestiture. If it rested solely with the Uk GOvernment I am sure a deal would be done over dinner but the EU will be looking to balance the interests of Euroepan cnsumers and airlines as well. If it were a BMI BA merger then things might be different.

[LeTigre]

I think the UK competition authorities blocking such a deal seems highly likely, unless there is high-level corruption present. I only say this because the government here is much more stringent in adhering to free-market policies, a related example being the break-up of the BAA monopoly. This may well be VA’s one and only successful lobby.

Another point: whoever said that there is not significant overlap is talking rubbish, here’s at least ten routeS on which BMI competes with BA or CityFlyer: ABZ,BSL,BHD,CAI,EDI,HAM,JED,DME,MAN,RAK,MXP,NCE,RUH,VIE.
That to me equals major competition!

[Hippocampus]

And on how many of those routes are BA and bmi the sole operators to LHR?

Answer: Not very many.

Plus there is plenty of competitions from LCCs operating in other London airports and from train operators on domestic routes.

There is no alternative to BA merging with BD. If Lufthansa, one of the best managed airline groups in the world, can’t make a go of bmi as a standalone airline, then no-one else can.

[Scandinavian]

@Hengli – that was me!

ABZ, EDI, MAN, NCE – correct head on competition but also by EZY etc. from other LON airports
BHD/BFS – not operated by BA but EI
BSL, VIE – would revert to LX and OS respectively
HAM – not operated by BD, but LH
MXP – service to end at the beginning of the winter season (LH Italia disbanded)
RUH, JED – direct competition but SV also operate routes
CAI – also operated by MS
MOW – also operated by SU and Transaero

In other words direct competition is rather limited. Much less than in the days when bmi also operated the likes of GLA, AMS, BRU, CDG etc. Should BA takeover bmi then it is only on LON-MAN where BA would gain a monopoly. All other routes have competition from LHR or at least from one or more of LGW, LCY, LTN and STN.

[LuganoPirate]

Time for Beardie Branson to put up or shut up!

[RichHI1]

Surely it is not about monopoly but about dominant positions and their possible misuse.
This forum is interesting, we have the informed, the ill informed and the desperate. I am sure there will be many more twists and turns before the issue is over.
My hope is the passengers and the current employees of BD do not suffer too greatly as I am sure the corporate fraternity will make certain they do not.

[LeTigre]

Scandinavian, I do apologise. I did not wish to imply you were an idiot, I just thought that the routes indicate a lot more competition than previously mentioned. While I do see that there are other competitors, a lot are marginal and pose no significant threat to BA market share through incomparable service quality, etc.

[Scandinavian]

There is no right or wrong. Rather it’s about different perspectives which is exactly what the competition authorities will have to reason with if a BA / bmi deal happens. Competition law is very difficult to implement. And the European Authorities have made some strange decisions in their time. The EU’s rejection of Volvo trucks attempt to buy Scania trucks was one of those decisions which is very difficult to understand and which was based on a very narrow definition of the markets where they competed.

[Bucksnet]

Branson has been in talks with Lufthansa today about a possible deal for BMI.

[DisgustedofSwieqi]

Sorry to pour rain on the parade, but BA ain’t buying anyone.

Their Spanish master may do.

[Swissdiver]

Then you have particularities… Swiss before being sold off to Lufthansa, announced it will join One World. It confirmed its commitment with its LHR slots. When Swiss finally decided not to join OW but instead to go to the lousy Miles & More (LH was behind the door), they lost their LHR slots to BA. While Swiss currently operates GVALHR and ZRHLHR, it actually subcontracts BMI… In other words, if IAG buys BMI, BA will have the monopoly of these two routes!

[LPPSKrisflyer]

Of course that assumes that all the slots will be sold. It’s unlikely that slots used for the likes of LX LHR-GVA will be sold as it’s not in the best interests of the LH group to allow that to happen. LX were shafted once by BA, they are not stupid enough to allow it to happen again.

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