What will the world of technology look like in ten years’ time, and how will we benefit? Mark Prigg reports.
Predicting the future is a fraught affair. If some futurologists had got it right, we would by now be commuting using jetpacks, while household robots tended to our every need.
Sadly, neither of these has quite come true yet, a reminder that predicting the future of technology is an almost impossible task, as a single scientific breakthrough can result in huge changes with all manner of results.
The past five years alone have seen technology advance at an astonishing pace. The smartphone has emerged as something with the power of a desktop computer, while Google has made large chunks of the world’s knowledge searchable within seconds from anywhere. So what technology will we be using in a decade’s time?
The only thing experts seem to agree on is that these incredible leaps are set to continue, and by looking at what research labs around the world are working on, it’s possible to get a glimpse of what’s yet to come.
Of course, many of these predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt – in the age of tech, a decade is a long time. Canadian research firm 5Deka (5deka.com) has just published its thoughts on technology in 2020, and predicts everything from mobile phone earpieces embedded in our skin to tags that immediately identify us to shops as we walk in. According to 5Deka’s chief executive and co-founder, Réjean Bourgault: “We’re going to see some very big changes by 2020.”
Electronic tags, similar to those found in travel cards such as Oyster, are also set to become commonplace. Called NFC (near field communication) tags, they are just beginning to be installed in phones and can be used for everything from paying for items by acting as a credit card, to being a contactless key. In fact, technology market research firm Juniper (juniperresearch.com) says that 500 million people worldwide will use their smartphone as a travel card by 2015.
According to Howard Wilcox, a senior analyst at Juniper Research, the phone is set to replace our wallet for almost everything. “We think that by 2014, one in five smartphones will have NFC built in,” he said. “There’s going to be a real change in consumer behaviour.”
One of the most impressive uses is to revolutionise the way we shop and finally kill off the dreaded check-out queue. Instead, shopping will be done by simply placing items straight in your bag – a machine will then scan your purchases as you leave the store and connect to your phone to debit the appropriate account. This is not without some privacy concerns, of course, but 5Deka believes the appeal of the service will outweigh these.
The relentless pace of technology will also leave casualties in its wake, the biggest of which, some believe, will be the desktop computer. IT publisher Computerworld recently predicted that in the next 18 months, shipments of app-powered smartphones and tablet devices will surpass the number of PC deliveries. “Mobile phones and tablets really are a glimpse into the future of computers, and I think we are going to see the balance shift massively towards them,” says freelance futurologist Jonathan Mitchener.
“I see the traditional computer, be it a laptop or a desktop, disappearing for most consumers,” he says. “Just a few years ago the idea of a computer without a mouse would be absurd, yet now we already find pressing keys rather odd on a phone. The computer is hidden from the user in a touchscreen device, which is why people love them so much. For instance, when you use an iPad, it just doesn’t seem like you are using a computer at all – it’s extremely natural.”
Another casualty is likely to be the television channel. As programmes are increasingly stored in “the cloud” – vast farms of computer servers run by firms such as Google and Apple – then conventional TV schedules become irrelevant, leaving only live events such as sports to be broadcast in the traditional way, as everything else becomes on-demand, downloaded only when we decide we want to watch it.
One upshot of the advances in technology is likely to be that offices also become increasingly irrelevant. “The age of the Martini worker has truly come,” says Nicola Millard, BT’s customer experience futurologist. “You can work anytime, and in any place without having to compromise at all.”
As well as the way we work, the way we travel is set to change, and one of the biggest advances for business people could be the emergence of low orbit space travel for long flights. The idea is being investigated by Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic team, which claims it will begin running flights that could see trips from the UK to Australia cut to just 2.5 hours. (For more on the future of aviation, see “The sky’s the limit”.)
However, it may take slightly longer than a decade – Virgin Galactic plans to launch an awful lot of £100,000 passenger flights into space from its New Mexico spaceport before it has the cash and resources to expand to suborbital journeys. Still, with dozens of other teams working on low-cost space travel, it’s impossible to rule out.
On the ground, transport will also change, owing in part to increased pressure on developers to come up with more environmentally friendly solutions to the way we get around. As a result, we should expect huge growth in electric vehicles, which by 2020 should be commonplace in major cities, along with huge networks of recharging points that make them practical to use.
See “Trend driven” for a look at how the car rental market will be affected, and “Forward thinking” for future travel trends.
From bionic contact lenses to holographic televisions, the gadgets of the future are making science fiction science fact. Click here for a look at what consumers can expect from technology in a decade's time.
