The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its latest estimates for the impact of Covid-19 on air passengers number in Europe, with the UK alone now expected to lose around 165 million passengers this year.
This figure has worsened from the association’s June estimate of a loss of 154 million passengers in 2020, with IATA’s regional vice president for Europe Rafael Schvartzman warning that “It is desperately worrying to see a further decline in prospects for air travel this year, and the knock-on impact for employment and prosperity”.
IATA said that its analysis of the largest European markets in the UK, Spain, Germany, Italy and France showed “a decline across all metrics” compared to June.
Spain is now expected to lose 132.7 million passengers this year (a decline from the previous estimate of -124.5 million), while Germany is forecast to lose 117.6 million passengers (compared to the previous estimate of -113.4 million).
Passenger traffic in Italy is expected to drop by 98.2 million this year (previous forecast of 92 million), while France is estimated to lose 94.6 million passengers (a decline from the previous estimate of -88.7 million).
A total of 705 million passenger journeys are expected to be lost across Europe in 2020, and IATA has also revised its estimate on the impact of the pandemic on jobs in aviation and tourism, warning that over seven million jobs are now at risk in the region, up from the previous estimate of six million.
“It shows once again the terrible effect that is being felt by families across Europe as border restrictions and quarantine continue,” said Schvartzman. “It is vital that governments and industry work together to create a harmonized plan for reopening borders.”
The association said that the risk of transmission onboard flights remained low, and called on governments to co-ordinate a “layering of measures as an alternative to quarantine, including the universal implementation of the ICAO biosafety measures, comprehensive contract tracing, and the potential for testing regimes that are fast, accurate, scalable and affordable”.
“With a recovery to 2019 levels now slipping to 2024, financial support, in forms which do not further load crippling debts onto the industry, will be necessary if an even sharper contraction in airline capacity and jobs is to be avoided,” said Schvartzman.
“And regulatory assistance is vital. It is absolutely crucial that the European Commission issue an unambiguous statement on their intention to provide a full Winter-season slot use waiver immediately. It is baffling that the Commission continues to sit on its hands over the Summer, while each day of delay becomes more critical for the future viability of a robust and competitive aviation industry.”
