News

Boeing increases forecast for new aircraft deliveries

11 Jul 2016 by Tom Otley
Boeing B777X

Boeing is forecasting  a demand for approximately 40,000 new aircraft over the next 20 years.

The exact number – 39,620 is an increase of 4.1 percent over last year’s forecast.

Boeing released its annual Current Market Outlook (CMO) on the first day of the 2016 Farnborough International Airshow, estimating the total value of those new airplanes at $5.9 trillion.

Current Market Outlook 2016 Infographic

“Despite recent events that have impacted the financial markets, the aviation sector will continue to see long-term growth with the commercial fleet doubling in size,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “We expect to see passenger traffic grow 4.8 per cent a year over the next two decades.”

The single-aisle market will be especially strong, with low-cost carriers and emerging markets driving growth. 28,140 new airplanes will be needed in this segment, an increase of more than 5 per cent over last year.

“There’s no question the heart of the single-aisle market is around the new Boeing MAX 8 and the current 737-800. Airplanes that size already account for 76 percent of the global single-aisle backlog, and our products have the clear advantage in that space.”

On the widebody side, 9,100 airplanes are in the forecast, with a large wave of potential replacement demand in the 2021- 2028 time frame. Boeing projects a continued shift from very large airplanes to small and medium widebodies such as the 787, 777 and 777X.

With cargo traffic forecasted to grow at 4.2 percent per year, Boeing projects the need for 930 new freighters and 1,440 converted freighters.

New Airplane Deliveries Through 2035

Airplane type

Seats

Total deliveries

Dollar value

Regional jets

90 and below

2,380

$110 billion

Single-aisle

90 – 230

28,140

$3,000 billion

Small widebody

200 – 300

5,100

$1,350 billion

Medium widebody

300 – 400

3,470

$1,250 billion

Large widebody

400 and above

530

$220 billion

Total

———

39,620

$5.9 trillion

The Asia market, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries over the next two decades.

New Airplane Deliveries Through 2035

Region

Airplane deliveries

Asia

15,130

North America

8,330

Europe

7,570

Middle East

3,310

Latin America

2,960

Africa

1,150

C.I.S.

1,170

Total

39,620

Boeing’s Current Market Outlook is the longest running jet forecast and regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the aviation industry. The full report can be found at www.boeing.com/cmo.

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