[Anonymous]

[VintageKrug]

An interesting document, setting out the proposals made over five years ago to expand LCY:

http://www.londoncityairport.com/Downloads/MasterPlan.pdf

Some of it has already come to pass, though quite a lot still to be done; the key need is for increased stand and taxi space, with few calls at the time to extend the runway – since the introduction of longhaul flights by British Airways this may have changed future plans.

[Edski777]

Hi VK,

Indeed an interesting document about a regional airport with severe limitations. Environmental concerns won’t let it grow to it’s potential maximum. The increase of flights will attract attention from the local population with the usual uproar. Extending the runway will attract more traffic and heavier, thus noisier, planes with the same results.

London, as expressed throughout the forum, has a substantial capacity problem at LHR and should fix this. Probably by creating a whole new airfield with room for growth and an excellent infrastructure connecting to London and the rest of the country. All existing airports around London have severe limitations (lack of runways and slots, operating in rural areas) that are not easily overcome.

The UK government must get its act together and work at a solution. The competition on the continent won’t wait.

If this major problem is not resolved I predict a nice future for LCY as a regional airport with feeder flights for AMS, FRA and CDG.

[douglas89]

Hi guys,

I am doing a exam on the airport masterplan of LCY. Is there anything else that is not valid or has failed to deliver in terms of what the masterplan has proposed?

Many thanks,

Doug

[Edski777]

Douglas89, I have been interested professionally in the development of airports and air travel since the ’80s. These long term studies are Always based on assumptions that prove very hard to turn into reality.

Be aware of the figures used in the report as for predicted growth they depend heavily on who ordered the report. Sometimes these figures are inflated or deflated with a purpose.

For instance the following statement used, and probably is correct for 2005/2005:

Quote

Projections suggest that total employment in London will increase by 636,000 jobs between 2001 and 2016 (Table 2). As Table 3 shows, the largest volume (69%) of the total increase in employment over this period will come from the Business Services sector (accountancy, law, management consultancy, corporate finance advice, telecommunications, advertising, marketing services and new media). Note: the individual sector totals exceed 636,000, the difference accounted for by taking into account job losses in declining sectors.

End of quote

The financial crisis since 2006 has hit hard on the financial services sector. Probably dragging down other lines of business as well. LCY with around 60% business travellers may suffer the consequences of this.

When studying the report I would suggest to check the validity of the assumptions and include the real figures of the period 2006 to 2012. It will be a reality check of the report and its predictions. Based on the outcome of your investigations you will be able to Judge the validity for the years to come.

[douglas89]

Edski777, many thanks

[Edski777]

I did a little research on the LCY website.
The report stated, based on UK government estimates, an annual growth of 9% (page 16 of the Masterplan)

The actual figures since then show that before the crisis the growth was a whopping 23% annualy and after the financial crisis hit in 2009 there was a serious decline. Since then LCY has not recovered to the record level of 2008. Growth figures have been in the single digits and will probably be much lower in 2012 then 2011.
I have included the figures from LCY for you.

Actual Growth
Year # pax
2006 2377318
2007 2928820 23%
2008 3217160 10%
2009 2802296 -13%
2010 2793813 0%
2011 3005783 8%
est. 2012 3027995 1%

The information I got from the LCY website: http://www.londoncityairport.com/AboutAndCorporate/page/PassengerStatistics

[douglas89]

Nice one, good points I can reseach up on. Thanks alot

My exam question is:

“Your first task is to evaluate the airport’s master plan last reviewed in November 2006. Taking into consideration of current economic climate and further passenger forecasts and users’ demand, you need to;
• Assess the relevance of the document to the curren environment.
• Propose and rationalise any amendments to the master plan.
• Recommend measures needed to aid future airport planning and development. “

Exam on thursday, wish me luck!

Doug

[Edski777]

Douglas89, as I stated: the report is full of these kind of things, showing how difficult it is to predict the future.
If you need some more help or feedback just let me know.

I gave you some information on the passenger numbers in my post yesterday. The report also has a focus on environmental concerns. These come under pressure in a recession a unemployment rises and the government will want to increase opportunities.
Take into account the high speed rail connections that are or come on line between London and Brussels, Paris, Frankfurt and Amsterdam. Would that be real competition to LCY as both boast near city centre to city centre connections.
Etcetera….

Good luck and all the best with your exams.
Also look at the number of airlines that fly to/from LCY: is this increasing?

What are you currently studying and at what level that this an exam subject?

[douglas89]

Edski777, fantastic information I can use to answer the question.

The Masterplan passenger forecast figures show a little less then expected. (2010: 3 million, 2.7 actual). This shows the effect of the recession with 2008 figures over 3.3 million passengers.

I have found out that in 2009 LCY were granted to increase air traffic movements to 120,000 (67,000 in 2005). I would expect the actual growth of passenger figures to rise as a result of this however there has not been much of a substantial increase by looking at the passenger statistics.

The exam is level 6 (masters level 7). Currently in my final year at university studying for a BA (Hons) Airline and Airport management. Hopefully to do my masters next year at Cranfield (providing I get the grades!)

Thanks again for your valuable input, and by the way are you involved in the aviation industry in anyway at all?

Doug

[Edski777]

Doug

You probably have this URL already, but this gives you the all the statistical data of LCY up to 2011.

http://www.lcacc.org or better: http://www.lcacc.org/statistics/index.html

The second link gives direct access to the statistics you might need.

If you make the simple relation between passengers and aircraft movements (take off and landings) you can draw your conclusions.
Example: There is a stunning drop in the amount of aircraft movements between 2008 and 2009. But in 2010/11 there is some recovery in the number of passengers. There is an 8% growth in passengers handled between 2010 and 2011. This may be an indication of increased load and/or bigger planes. Have airplanes been virtually empty during this episode?

120000 slots are available, but only 69000 were used in 2010 and 2011.

Most destinations show a significant drop (2009) and then a slow recovery in recent years. But look at Geneva, a 40% decrease!

Very interesting material to be found, including all the graphs.

Ed

[douglas89]

Ed,

Brilliant, I did have the URL but will look into it closely now that you’ve raised these points.

Will let you know how the exam went, and yes very interesting material indeed!

Thanks,

Doug

[AMcWhirter]

Hello Edski777

Re: international rail competition for LCY

Bear in mind that the rail links from London to Amsterdam and Frankfurt with DB are delayed by a number of years. There was a news item yesterday about this fact.

There are no longer flts from LCY to BRU and those to CDG ceased a long time ago. Existing service is with AF to ORY.

[Edski777]

Sure, but Doug is working on a long term plan for his exam. In those terms 2016 seems not that far away. I included the comment because of the recent publications (and yesterday on this forum).

If you analyse the destinations AMS is largely for feeder flights, some others are definitely business destinations and most of the smaller one s are more leisure destinations.

ORY seems like a final destination for most passengers as CDG is the main Paris hub. Also CDG is connected to London via Eurostar.

[douglas89]

Edski777, Exam done.

Went well, glad I bumped into this forum!

Doug

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