[AMcWhirter]

Today’s piece from The Sunday Times [paywall] is certain to create much comment in the weeks ahead.

LHR’s new CEO Thomas Woldbye “is understood to have begun disbanding the third runway team.

“City sources said that the new Heathrow team was pulling together plans under the internal strapline of ‘better not bigger’, which was originally coined by ant-expansion campaigners.

“Leaked details of the plans reveal that annual passenger numbers could hit 96 million by 2036, up from the record 80.9 million it welcomed in 2019, if all of its initiatives can be realised. A “core” case is understood to forecast a rise to 86 million passengers.

“Among the proposals to increase passenger numbers is a plan to use more buses to transport passenger from the terminal to the aircraft …. etc etc ”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/e4eea062-560c-4d9b-a580-c992f94529c9?shareToken=ff4142acb0c5cbde475b522351afbf7f

However Bloomberg [paywall] today quotes Heathrow as denying the above Sunday Times report.

1 user thanked author for this post.

GivingupBA

[cwoodward]

Given the rent less opposition this news is understandable

Back in 1996 Hong Kong’s old Kai Tak airport was the third busiest in the world handling 31 million passengers with one runway and very constrained apron and terminal areas. This largely without the benefit of modern computerised systems and interfaces.

The 2 runways at LHR are longer and the apron and terminal areas substantial.
Some 79 million paxs used the airport in 2023 (28% up on 2022) and it copped reasonably well by all accounts.

It would seem that around 85 million would be possible (with reorganisation). If the second runway at London Gatwick (that presently handles 33 million paxs with one runway) is finally built then London should have enough capacity (all-be-it not in the optimum location)) at least for the next 10 years.

Were the curfew at LHR was eased (unlikely but perhaps possible with the much reduced aircraft noise and no third runway) another perhaps 5 million passenger movements should be possible.

1 user thanked author for this post.

AndrewinHK

[Inquisitive]

London/UK will see more and more travellers in future, but it can be managed without the 3rd Runway at Heathrow. The alternatives could be:
1. Build 2nd runway at Gatwick and establish a super fast train connection between Gatwick and Heathrow. A super fast train will take approx same time as (say) walking/train transfer between T4 and T5. So Heathrow loads can be shared.
2. Heathrow now entertain too many short haul connecting flights. Again by having a major train station with super fast service at Heathrow to north UK, Scotland and even some European cities could release slots for medium/long haul flight. Frankfurt is a good example.
3. Allow flight take off until late. The blackout period could be 1am to 5am. Nowadays road noises sometimes more than airplane takeoff noise outside airport. Landing blackouts could be 12 midnight to 5am.

Any airport handles 100 million passengers is messy (e.g. Atlanta, Chicago). Heathrow is complex with highest number of international passengers that require immigration plus baggage handling. I think the ‘better not bigger’ model could be implemented with proper planning.

[BackOfThePlane]

@Inquisitive – 3 your suggestions are fine in theory but largely unworkable and not really in touch with current geopolitical & economic realities.

1. Yes, a train between Heathrow & Gatwick might help a small bit the gains would be marginal and the cost of building such a line would be huge. Who would pay for it? Neither airport will and the UK government certainly won’t.
2. This has been suggested before but, at the moment, we can’t seem to even get HS2 into central London. Creating a dedicated spur to Heathrow simply won’t happen. In addition, maintaining domestic links to a number of regional UK airports is, in my opinion, important for the country as a whole.
3. This is a more practical solution but public pressure won’t allow this to happen.

Allowing mixed-mode take off and landing (ie allowing take off and landing on both runways) is the easiest way to add capacity although, for the same reasons as (3), difficult to achieve.

The easiest way to achieve passenger growth (and this is not the same as flight growth) is to do pretty much nothing. Over the years, short haul aircraft have gotten bigger and bigger (compare the sizes of the original 737 to the new versions), thereby adding capacity organically.

[AMcWhirter]

Today’s Cityam.com reports Heathrow’s denial of that Sunday Times piece.

Heathrow denies report that third runway plans have been shelved

[SimonS1]

For point to point business there are other possible sources of capacity.

Southend is starting to pick up again, also it seems Manston may be looking to open again. The first one is well connected by rail, the second one could take some freight and free up slots at Heathrow.

[stevescoots]

i have never understood why Cargo only flights are still using LHR considering the runway constrictions when southend and manston have plenty of capacity and suitable road connections.

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AndrewinHK, MartynSinclair, cwoodward

[CathayLoyalist2]

Well Spain is looking at no domestic flights under 2.5 hours unless passengers are connecting to an international flight i.e Madrid out of Spain. Train travel is the alternative. or is it?.

[AMcWhirter]

Certainly will have no effect on the busiest intercity route which is Madrid-Barcelona.

There are four HS (high-speed) rail operators and almost all schedule their trains for 2 hrs 30 mins or more.

In the case of France the so-called “ban” has affected only *three* routes into Paris ORY.

All flights, no matter how short, into CDG are unaffacted as I have reported many times.

For example, there is a direct TGV running Lyon-Paris CDG in two hours … yet Air France operates multiple daily flights and seats can be booked point-to-point.

It’s all about connectivity. Airlines, despite what they say in public, dislike entrusting their feed traffic to another (transport) mode.

Can you blame them when you consider DB’s recent six day strike in Germany.

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Dansk, BackOfThePlane

[Author]

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