IATA optimism for fast travel recovery and growth

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  • cwoodward
    Participant

    IATA forecast strong recovery and growth
    This looks to me like well reasoned optimism which should be the saviour of almost all of the worlds remaining “major’ airlines

    From press release on 28 May

    “Forecast highlights include:

    In 2021, global passenger numbers are expected to recover to 52% of pre-COVID-19 levels (2019).
    In 2022, global passenger numbers are expected to recover to 88% of pre-COVID-19 levels.
    In 2023, global passenger numbers are expected to surpass pre-COVID-19 levels (105%).
    By 2030, global passenger numbers are expected to have grown to 5.6 billion. That would be 7% below the pre-COVID-19 forecast and an estimated loss of 2-3 years of growth due to COVID-19.
    Beyond 2030 air travel is expected to slow, due to weaker demographics and a baseline assumption of limited market liberalization, giving average annual growth between 2019 and 2039 of 3.2%. IATA’s pre-COVID-19 growth forecast for this period was 3.8%.
    The recovery in passenger numbers is slightly stronger than the recovery in demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), which is expected to grow an annual average of 3% between 2019 and 2039. This is owing to the expected strength of domestic markets like China with large passenger numbers and shorter distances.”

    Indications are that people have retained their need and desire to travel:

    Any possibility for borders to re-open is met with an instant surge in bookings. The most recent example is the 100-percentage point spike in bookings from the United Kingdom to Portugal when the UK’s “Green List” was announced in early May.
    The economy is strong and can fuel growth in travel. February 2021 industrial production levels stood at 2% above February 2019 levels.
    Consumers have accumulated savings in the lockdowns, in some cases exceeding 10% of GDP.
    Vaccination rates in developed countries (with the notable exception of Japan) should exceed 50% of the population by the third quarter of 2021.”


    Inquisitive
    Participant

    Good wishful prediction by IATA.
    Problem is that the COVID situation including various waves of different variants shows that it is impossible to predict anything now.

    Agree that there is huge pent-up demand for travel. I believe that vacation and tourism travel will increase, but business travel will decrease – as the CEO and accountants already found a lot of work is possible via teleconferences.
    And airlines makes money from business travel – so long term business prospect could be doubtful.

    But as I indicated above, nothing can be predicted with reasonable certainty now. World economy is behaving strangely. Stock market is all time high, inflation is all time high, interest rate is all time low and these are quite contradictory to COVID related downturn and to job situation in general.
    So may be that IATA prediction be reality sooner.


    CathayLoyalist2
    Participant

    To many people, did I say accountants, know the price of everything and the value of nothing.You cannot simply dismiss the value of a face to face in a relationship. As so often happens the cost saving is seen in the short term but the damage of fracturing/losing a relationship doesn´t manifest itself for months even years. I can remember dictats from bosses in the past saying sales calls should only be made during cheap periods!. As though buyers are seitting there to accommodate sales call schedules!!

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Business Traveller May / June 2021 cover
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