[cwoodward]

Cathay will again be flying to 5 Australian state capitals when the route restarts in late September. Five flights a week using normally A350 aircraft.

Hong Kong to Adelaide: CX177, 01:15-12:40; Wednesdays, Fridays, Sundays
Hong Kong to Adelaide: CX173, 09:15-20:35; Thursdays, Saturdays
Adelaide to Hong Kong: CX174, 14:35-20:30; Wednesdays, Fridays, Sundays
Adelaide to Hong Kong: CX176, 22:15-05:00+1; Tuesdays, Sundays

With this resumption Cathay will be joining Hong Kong to Australian capitals and vv close to 120 times a week but still over 20% less than pre Covid

The deliver of the last 2 X A350 this month the orders to Airbus totalling 48 aircraft will be complete. However the airline is expected soon to place orders to replace up to 25 of its aging A330 fleet also replacements for some older cargo aircraft also for Air Hong Kong and possibly for some 4 class A350 -900s.as much needed replacements for the older 777 -300 ERs that are the mainstay of its premier routes to the UK and US

The much delayed new 4 class 777 variant is it seems not now arrive until 2026 some 5 years late and even that timing is still uncertain.

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AndrewinHK

[tomyam42]

It is strange that Adelaide gets 5 flights back while Brisbane, which used to have 10 or 11, only gets 4.

And what about Cathay replacing its 17 777-300s. Their average age is probably older than the oldest A330 and much older than the oldest 777-300ER? It seems as though a regionalised A350-1000 would be suitable there.

[cwoodward]

T42 – Brisbane will be back to 7 flights a week prior to Adelaide restarting.

The 777-300ER fleet is not old at 10.1 years however reinforcements were ordered some 5 years ago but not yet delivered. The few elderly 777s are parked and unlikely to ever re-join the ‘in-use fleet’.

Very few a330s fly to Australia or NZ with almost all flights be A350s with 777 -300s used when loadings are heavy

Only six of the now old A300s are currently in use and not too Australia. The rest the large A330 fleet although aging at 14 years average is not old however Cathay has intimated that they will be replaced with an order being issued in the near future.

44 new X A350s (soon to 46) have already joined the fleet to replace aging aircraft including the B747s as have the narrow body Airbuses
Overall for a major established world airline the Cathay fleet is young (at just over 10 years) when compared to BA close to 15 years – Qantas at 14.2 and Lufthansa at 13 average age

[cwoodward]

T42 – Brisbane will be back to 7 flights a week prior to Adelaide restarting.

The 777-300ER fleet is not old at 10.1 years however reinforcements were ordered some 5 years ago but not yet delivered. The few elderly 777s are parked and unlikely to ever re-join the ‘in-use fleet’.

Very few a330s fly to Australia or NZ with almost all flights be A350s with 777 -300s used when loadings are heavy

Only six of the now old A300s are currently in use and not too Australia. The rest the large A330 fleet although aging at 14 years average is not old however Cathay has intimated that they will be replaced with an order being issued in the near future.

44 new X A350s (soon to 46) have already joined the fleet to replace aging aircraft (including the B747s) as have the narrow body Airbuses
Overall for a major established world airline the Cathay fleet is younger than most (at just over 10 years) when compared to BA close to 15 years – Qantas at 14.2 and Lufthansa at 13 average age

[tomyam42]

cwoodward, your comments are interesting but do not match Cathay’s on-line timetable as far as Brisbane is concerned or its Annual report in other areas.

According to the Annual Report there are 17 777-300s with an average age of 21.2 years. Planespotters shows 10 are parked. Earlier this year I flew on one from Manila. I understood that they were mainly used on high density routes to China and Japan. I can foresee a need for high capacity planes in the future even after the three runways in Hong Kong are fully operational as demand at various other airports in the region expands faster than new capacity is built.

Five secondhand 777-300s were purchased from Emirates about 5 years ago and were all delivered in the following year or so. The Annual Report does not show any 777-300s, or 777-300ERs on order.

The A300s are freighters used by Air Hong Kong. Again according to Planespotters the oldest A330-300 is B-HLM checking in at 22.3 years old. Ten more are over 20 years old and a few more will be there shortly. However the average age of all A3303 is just over 14 years showing that a bunch are indeed quite young.

The Air Hong Kong fleet is quite long in the tooth and that is included in your just over 10 years average so the average age of the passenger fleet should be a bit under 10 years.

[cwoodward]

T42 My email contained that which I know to be fact as of the last few days. My numbers are correct

The info re aircraft in use came largely from my own knowledge and from Planespotters network that is continually updates its information. i,e. most of the 777-300s are still ‘stored’ and are unlikely ever to re-join the active fleet
The 777s on order are the new variant ordered 5 years ago.

There are no 777-300s on order as Boeing no longer produce the model and worldwide there are only 6 X ERs left to be delivered before the 777-300ER production is shuttered

The 5 leased (not purchased) ex Emirates aircraft that you mention are no longer with the airline

Re Air Hong Kong – you are perhaps confused as AHK is a different airline to that being discussed here and in any case it possesses 8 only A300s the average of which is 18.4 years -these aircraft are all being replaced by A330 freighters over the next 2 years Air HKs fleet is not regarded as being part of the Cathay fleet. I understand that the first one is leaving the fleet this month.

Cathey only has 6 (possibly 7)X A300s operational as of yesterday -these are the younger ones – the older A300s aircraft are stored and perhaps never to re-join the active fleet.

[TominScotland]

Interesting to read of Cathay’s returning routes and also fleet renewal plans. Looking forward, employers in Hong Kong like Cathay should also take note of reports like this.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/09/hong-kong-schools-in-crisis-as-teachers-and-students-flee-toxic-political-climate

One of the things that I do is to advise governments and corporations of the workforce implications of demographic and associated population change. In this instance, I would be highlighting the future risks associated with the loss of a key workforce cohort, likely to include many with good education as well as language skills. This could seriously impact their ability to maintain current services and deliver growth from both a technical and service point of view in the future. That said, I suspect that those with their hands on levers in Hong Kong (and Beijing) that could change things are unlikely to be interested in my analysis!

[cwoodward]

Tom: the story to which you refer seems to have little to do with business travel but follows your theme of voicing dislike of Hong Kong.
The story itself is something of a beat-up though not entirely without some backing but very exaggerated and it has beenmuch usurped by resent developments though it perhaps still deserves a response if only to set the record strait.

To say that expats are flocking back in droves would equally be an exaggeration but they are steadily returning and apartments rents are again increasing in “expat’ areas and few locals are now leaving Hong Kong. Inward international flights are mostly entirely full and a steady stream has started of those locals that are disenchanted with the their move to the UK. More I suspect will leave but more will also return The expat population is predicted to be back where it was pre pandemic within 18 months.

If you have the chance or interest a read of the several pieces re an interview with a visiting UK minister and the UK consul general in HK would be perhaps interesting. Basically they both rowed back entirely on the aggressiveness metered by the UK out to Hong Kong over the past coupled of years and waxed somewhat lyrically about the need to cooperate and restore the close relations enjoyed up to 2 or 3 years ago. I was pleasantly surprised that a government minister showed up and in what he had to say – which to say the least took most including myself by surprise. It is all business related of course.

As an instance of expats returning – our youngest boy goes to an international school which has 70% expat pupils. In his year they lost about 30 expat pupils over the past 2 years. At the beginning of this term they welcomed 16 new expats. The foreign teacher compliment(95%) is also now back to the full compliment of 60+ with some returning staff who left for family reasons due to the pandemic 3 years back and new joiners from AU NZ and the UK.

In short there is no ongoing crisis of any sort here and all is recovering faster than predicted. It will of course take time to fully recover but the airport is incredibly busy and Cathay Pacific and Hong Kong Express are running at full capacity – now again 6 Cathay flights a day to the UK on most days all full both ways and at alarming high ticket prices.

[engee]

Hi cwoodward, thanks for the update. Any idea when the direct flights HKG-ADL will be bookable? All I get via the CX website is HKG-MEL-ADL or HKG-SYD-ADL for all dates from end September onwards.

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