[TimFitzgeraldTC]

Cathay have removed ability to book any travel before 6th September with every flight currently showing as closed.

HK authorities getting tetchy about Covid variant. Will massively damage CX and HKG if this is the case.

[TimFitzgeraldTC]

Ah ha – so a massive weather system forecast to hit HK this weekend hence the ticket sale closure. (Hearing other things from clients getting panicky about some authorities going backwards with CV and made me wonder if this was the case here – thankfully not

[AndrewinHK]

Yes, basically a direct hit potentially T10 level storm, which is in western speak a hurricane. Storm surge warning, and concerns about serious flooding. The storm has winds of more than 200kph, and we are already starting to be affected by its outer edge, just back from walking my dogs and it was a bit blowy, expected to get progressively worse until Saturday morning, I would anticipate the airport will likely be closed during the peak of the storm, and Cathay have already said they will be adjusting schedules to keep aircraft away from Hong Kong from Friday afternoon until at least Saturday morning.

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[christ]

It does feel excessive to cancel flights until Wednesday. I was meant to be flying to Bangkok on Saturday but have now cancelled Cathay and moved to Thai on Sunday (Saturday was available but i decided not to risk).

I feel very excessive to announce T3 at 1540 as i played tennis until 6pm and was perfectly fine.

I had not realised T10 as i thought was just going to be declared T8 overnight.

[AndrewinHK]

Christ, I guess operationally they have to be cautious, as disruption will have knock on effects. I do agree until Sept 5th seems a little dramatic, but perhaps reflective of the high load factors and lack of spare capacity. The storm warning system is always based on sustained gusts anywhere within the borders of HK. This evening the wind was steady, but varied greatly on either side of the Peak, the city side was calm, the side looking over to Lamma the wind was much stronger, I hope you enjoyed your tennis game!

[christ]

Thanks – tennis was good and barely a breeze in Wan Chai!I think a more prudent approach would have been to cancel to saturday / sunday when other airlines are flying – again i feel another thing putting people off Cathay when their prices are higher than others. Time will tell if they were correct but it does not add up to cancel until wednesday including non – asia!

[cwoodward]

All is now battened down in HK with all offices and public transport closed. The streets are empty with just occasional private car although traffic on the airport express-way heavish. from the live camera footage

8.30am local
The airport however is open and operating as normal I can see 11 aircraft queuing for take-off and 8 in the landing circuit. About 20 at gates with transponders on loading/unloading pax. The airport is unlikely to close for other than a short period if the typhoon hits directly.
The closure of flights to 5th is a precautionary measure only and all flights will operate as conditions make it possible to do so.
I just met my neighbour a Cathay captain while walking the dog -he is still rostered to Anchorage on the 747-800F this PM and mentioned that it will fly if conditions allow as providing take-off is possible they can get above the storm in under 5 minutes.

Typhoons are fickle and this one particularly is unstable and likely to change direction and veer away at any time – at the moment it is looking like a direct hit and as such unusual. There have been some very bad ones over the years and this is looking the worst since 2018 when several of the old valuable large trees in our road were toppled.

[cwoodward]

Andrew you mentioned a ‘cathay lack of capacity’. There is no capacity problem at all at this time with only some 65% of the schedule being presently flown and now most stored aircraft back in the operating fleet.

They have have enough aircraft to fly 100% of the schedule next year and also again more than enough pilots to fly the planned schedules with at year and a spare capacity of some 100 operating pilots according to Cathay briefings and local reports. Hong Kong Express is already operating at 100% of precovid capacity and is expanding now month by month.

This is still seemingly tight for a major airline but more ex senior pilots have been returning to the airline month on month (many ex Dragon Air) with also many direct entry pilots recruited this year.

The largely ignored and reportedly poorly led local union preaches a pilot shortage (that cannot be backed up by fact) and has been doing so since Swire were forced by the pandemic to close Dragon Air with the loss of many jobs. However I am told that now the only real reason to join is the decent ‘loss of licence insurance’ offered.

Many aircraft are being lightly flown at present given the light schedule but the pilots are working hard and raking in the welcome considerable extra money i’m told by several.

By the mid 2024 the fleet capacity though will be tight ( given the 4 year delay in delivering the 21 new series 4 class 777s) and some older A330 and B777s that would have normally been retired will be temporarily retained.
However 21 new aircraft have arrived in the past 12 months with the last 2 A350s due in the next few weeks and several of the smaller airbuses still to come later in the year.

[christ]

I thought all cathay flights were cancelled after 2pm today (with the exception of NY and which has been pushed forward).

Nonetheless I think virtually all airlines have cancelled the majority of their flights for the afternoon onwards.

I saw BA cancelled both departures from London on Thursday and today – not sure of the need for yesterday!

I still think cathay blocking out until Wednesday is excessive – or perhaps it is the case that they are not cancelling but just not accepting new bookings and in which case that makes reasonable sense (although I would argue Monday would have been fine). However for me to not be able to change my cancelled flight to Wednesday at the earliest was not much use – of course Thai airways could quite possibly cancel my flight also!

At 1430 local time in Wan Chai, there is some light rain and a bit of wind but nothing too bad yet (I think peak is meant to be overnight). I met a friend for lunch in a local hotel restaurant and it was actually packed at 1pm.

Certainly looks for a boring weekend in HK and luckily I still have a home gym from COVID and also facilities remain open in my apartment complex (excluding outdoor pool / tennis).

I wish all here in HK to be safe and especially in the non – city areas which are more exposed as I am sure wan chai is calmer and not reflective of all areas. Wishing all a great weekend as much as possible with the weather.

[christ]

Well I have to say that maybe cathay are correct. Being in the 41 floor and facing the harbour I have never seen windows wobble so much and the rain hammering so hard against.

One of my friends parents who lives on islands showed me a video of flooding in the afternoon when it was fine in wan chai.

Please all in hk be safe and hope you are not too exposed.

[TimFitzgeraldTC]

Sales have reopened again from 2nd September so only a temporary ticket closure.

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