[Anonymous]

[oldchinahand]

From what I understand based on recent announcements from Cathay the local financial press and information from Cathay insiders two announcements are very likely to be made at the AGM.

1. Full year profit down by around 85%

2. The purchase of new 747-8 passenger aircraft to be in service by year end
There have been several indications that the purchase was imminent and it is very normal for Cathay to make such announcements at AGMs.

For some time Cathay have been retiring older 747 aircraft and retraining the flight crew to the 777. This training I understand has been halted.
The obvious reason for this would be that Cathay is going to have an on going need for these 747 flight crew.
There are some more new 747-8 freighters on the way but with the retirement of older aircraft there are sufficient existing CC

The recent code share agreement between Cathay and BA on the ‘Kangaroo route’ will need Cathay to be able to offer a dedicated FST cabin on flights to Australia – at least to Sydney and Melbourne.

The existing equipment flown to these cities (A330) does not offer a dedicated FST cabin or in most cases any FST offering at all.

It is in my view unlikely that BA would have entered into the code share arrangement unless Cathay was able to offer in the near future a dedicated ‘turn left’ FST cabin.

With BA announcing the 380 on flights from HKG to LHR Cathay’s current offering of newish 777s and elderly A340s and 747s on the route will not cut the mustard going forward.

Without the new generation 380 or 747-8 aircraft Cathay will ‘leak’ high revenue front end pax to BA on the HKG-LHR route and to the EK-Qantas tie up from Aust to Europe as will BA .

There are 747-8 ‘white tails’ available that are ether already on Boeings’ production line or or scheduled for production shortly thus Cathay will have been able to secure a very good deal one would imagine.

[Simon01]

Yes you are correct on both accounts.

[AnastasiaBeaverhouzen]

This is wonderful news, 747-8i is a wonderful aircraft and deserves more sales. I’ve been on a Lufthansa run and it was one of the best flights ever.

I’m pleased for Boeing too, they need a break right now.

[MartynSinclair]

still dont understand why the 747-8 has been a flop – been discussed on many other threads.

Hope Cathay do go ahead with the -800. Others may then follow.

From an engineering/maintenance point of view, there must be some cross over between the -400 and -800 ..

[BeckyBoop]

Martyn perhaps this might help

http://travel.cnn.com/explorations/life/boeing-747-8-and-airbus-a380-death-match-152563

[oldchinahand]

BB CNN is far from the most reliable source for aviation information and the CNN report that you quote is both old and inaccurate but agreed the 747-8 is not an aircraft that meets all major carriers requirements.

It is of course far from certain that CX will in fact purchase the 747-8 but if, as I believe they are going to it will be for reasons specific to Cathay requirements as the worlds largest freight carrying airline and a need to prevent pax leakage to BA and middle eastern airlines code sharing with legacy carriers on Cathay’s most important and profitable routes
.
Historically CX has had requirement for large belly capacity – long haul and with full pax loading and the 380 is unable to deliver this.

[AMcWhirter]

One of the reasons the 747-8 has fallen from favour is that the latest versions of the B777-300ER can accomplish many of the same things at less cost to the airlines.

Granted it doesn’t have the same passenger appeal but to many carriers, the bottom line is all important.

It has the range, witness Air NZ’s use of B777-300ERs on the transpacific or the planned use by Garuda on Jakarta-London later this year.

And it can carry the passengers.

American will accommodate 310 passengers on a 4-class B777-300ER while when it comes to a high density layout we find Air Canada’s new B777-300ERs will carry no fewer than 458 passengers in a 3-class configuration.

A total of 458 passengers on a B777-300ER is more than some airlines’ A380s carry.

http://www.businesstraveller.com/news/air-canada-to-operate-b777-300er-with-new-busin

[CXDiamond]

Cathay will make an announcement in their own good time and it will, as ever be kept very quiet until then.

If they need to provide F to Australia then that can easily be accomplished with the 773 or indeed an Airbus. I can’t see that code sharing with BA will be grounds to introduce the 748, it makes no sense at all. I also suspect that in terms of these code shares that Cathay dictated the terms and BA sat and took note. It’s how Cathay work. They didn’t need to code shares, BA did.

Please remember that QF only provided F to SYD and MEL, BA will provide their own F to SYD for the time being, if F was dropped to MEL would anyone really notice? After all, QF, EK and SQ will still offer it and hold the lions share. Somehow I don’t see Cathay offering it just incase a BA transfer passenger wants it.

[oldchinahand]

CXDiamond: I dont disagree with your logic however I do not entirely agree with your conclusions.

Neither the Airbus or 773 offers the >separate

[oldchinahand]

I do not entirely agree with your conclusions.
Neither the Airbus or 773 offers the separate dedicated F cabin of the 747 and BA will only offer one flight a day with F to Australia and that via Bangkok…. and as you mention that only for the time being.

Would BA have agreed to the code share arrangement without a F offering to Aust as part of the agreement. I believe not as that surrenders the F market in total to the Qantas / EK with Qantas unlikely to be a OW member for much longer.

As you did not address the other points raised in my post particularly BA offering the 380 to HKG with dedicated F class against Cathay’s present miss mash of dated equipment to LHR I am wondering you agree that Cathay will need a comparable offering if it is not to surrender market share to BA on what is Cathay’s premier route?

Will they be able to fill the now 4 flights a day to LHR with the 777 as their best offering going forward once the BA 380 comes into service on the route ? I believe not, hence my conclusion that Cathay need the 747-8 sooner rather than later.

John Slosser however is on record some time ago as stating that Cathay ‘would never again invest in four engine aircraft’ and so perhaps the on order 777 and A350 going to be Cathay’s only purchases.

I just cannot see Swire letting BA again have an edge on the HKG-LHR route that they fought so hard to establish over so many years.

[AMcWhirter]

Hello oldchinahand

BA routes its SYD flight via SIN. BKK is reduced to a terminator service for now.

Interesting about John Slosser saying that CX “would never again invest in four engine aircraft.”

Bearing in mind the volume of passenger traffic to and from HKG I am surprised that CX hasn’t ordered the A380 by now.

[oldchinahand]

Alex: thank you for the correction.

The reason I believe if anything Cathay will go for the 747-8 is that it will carry full pax load long haul and a large freight loading.

Whereas I am lead to believe that the 380 has substantial limitations in this regard.

Plus also of course Boeing at this time need business and Swire has historically been very astute in purchasing at bargain basement prices. The original A340s are one example.

[CXDiamond]

oldchinahand: I was not really responding to your post but more posting my own thoughts so it’s not surprising I didn’t respond to your points.

BA are offering nothing new in F on the A380, their current product falls way below the CX standard. The CX offering is one of the best in the business and CX F on the 773 will win every time for me over BA F on the A380.

The 748 offers nothing the 773 doesn’t. I suggest you check out the freight and passenger loadings of the A380 and the 748, one of them wins hands down.

A for the dedicated F cabin, if by that you mean the nose then I really don’t think it would be any sort of deal breaker. Remember that BA are about to introduce the 773 to SYD.

The 748 will never sell in numbers.

The

[HongKongLady]

I do hope that Cathay does invest in the new 747 s. it would certainly make me even more likely to fly Cathay when the price is right.
I try to avoid BAs 777 as they are very narrow so I try to use the jumbo or Cathay’s 777 which has a far superior seat layout.

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