[ASK1945]

AinHK wrote: “Those bucket and spade routes are likely high margin. BA serves Barbados with a premium heavy configuration on the 77W and soon the 781, and continues to also serve from LGW, premium long-haul leisure routes are booming, with many of the majors outlining this in earnings calls“.

I have been to UVF (St Lucia) five times – always in J – since just before Covid. This includes twice in the last few months. The plane used (for now) is a daily 777-200, which goes on to Grenada, Tobago or Georgetown. On both these last two occasions, J (and Premium Economy) have been full, months in advance. BA dominates the influx of PAX into UVF and the airport has just doubled the size of the private lounge.

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AndrewinHK, sparkyflier

[AlanOrton1]

With VS having bailed from UVF it just hands extra business to BA on a plate.

You could add Florida destinations to the premium bucket and spade notion. I always see couples & groups of friends in the premium cabins going to MIA (perhaps even more so to TPA & MCO).
It appears since Covid this segment is significantly bigger and thus a good money maker for BA et al.

[sparkyflier]

Thank you for all your contributions so far.

My thoughts and/or context on some suggestions so far :-

Re Honolulu I am not yet convinced of this route. I am sure most would want to break their journey there and stop en-route at LA. SF, SD, Vegas, Seattle or even Vancouver. And the route would likely be flown by 787 which is a true endurance test if seated in Y.

Regarding Pakistan – while I hear Lahore is a very worthwhile visit and has amazing architecture I think the recent political and economic challenges really hit traffic at least from there, and that was one of the reasons Virgin pulled out. At least BA does still ply Islamabad.

MarkivJ – re Japan and Osaka, this was a new route for BA and launched just before Covid. And as you say not being able to overfly Russia is a challenge but also a massive one affecting the economics of the operation and using that aircraft for a long period of time when in the same flying time could operate maybe 2 long medium haul routes. Perhaps JAL could try operating it?

dkc94 – welcome to the forum, I see this is your very first post.

Re slots from Heathrow, 99% of us on this forum are aware of slot limitations at LHR, one of the reasons these route discussions are so interesting especially for BA is as they have to really chew the analytics. BTW there is no “dislike” of BA-IAG Mngt here but many here on these threads over the years have different views on their conservatism and feel they are missing opportunities.

And in the last discussion which started 16 months ago many said BKK and KUL would not/should not come back (saying QR/ME3 etc are too strong) but look what has happened. And as I said in my introduction BA been very short of aircraft (especially since removing entire 747 fleet), crew (Brexit not helping and over-firing when Covid came being two reasons) and engineers (UA paying much more for example), but relief has come on all of these factors, hence Abu Dhabi, BKK and KUL returning. So now that things are turning around it will be fascinating to see where they resume or see a brand new opportunity.

Re Puerto Vallarta you mentioned 1 stop competition. Well apart from changing planes at Mexico City or Cancun, the only 1 stop competition is from USA/Canada where you have to get a Visa/ESTA just to connect AND go through immigration nonsense just to change planes (in MIA/DFW/IAH etc). This is huge hassle and also increases chances of missing your connection. Puerto Vallarta is an up and coming destination (already sought from USA/Canada demand) and so can see demand for this from across Europe and UK and suggest a start of twice weekly.

Re Sao Paulo there is certainly demand for more flights there, and I know a travel consultant who sees the demand and the fares there and thinks BA should increase its offering. And I know years ago (pre Dilma/Bolsonario etc) BA were thinking to send A380 there but GRU was not A380 compliant, but it is now. And there would be premium demand too. There is a huge Brazilian diaspora in UK across all income levels as well as substantial business traffic. Bear in mind also that AF send two 777 per day and their La Premier is offered. A Brazilian friend based down there frequently chooses that product and on each occasion all 4 seats are taken. LH also ply 747-8 which has a First Class.

VS not doing GRU IMO is down to their own errors/timing/product etc

Re Bogota, although Avianca does LHR daily and IB go via MAD, many Colombians truly dislike both carriers and indeed prefer AF/KL. Avianca is not the airline it was and Iberia crew and lost luggage at MAD have caused much anger. There is much tourist traffic for Colombia which is increasing and this is in the premium leisure sector and much potential for more trade traffic. I think in the year before Covid BA launched Lima but IMO they should have chosen Bogota maybe with a tag to Lima to try both markets out. This also maximises rare LHR slots.

Many years ago in a similar discussion Santiago in Chile was proposed but many disagreed – saying it was an IB route and “their turf..”

To all who mentioned Africa.. Indeed.

Transtraxman you mentioned Luanda and Kinshasa, but the latter has not been served since the late 80s by a British Caledonian DC-10.

I know Luanda was hugely profitable until an oil price crash around 7-8 years ago (and likely difficulty of getting money out) but in the last BA route discussion a poster convinced me of the premium traffic for Kinshasa which is why I think a route serving both would be sensible and rewarding.

I am suggesting a 3 x weekly start as a triangle with crew resting in the safer place.

And on West African markets, places like Abidjan could be viable. Many years ago AF operated A380s there and I met an AF manager once at a conference in the UK who told me ” you would have no idea just how much demand for that flight comes from the UK and it is not just VFR”. I would propose it started in conjunction with other markets like Accra or routes cancelled when BA retired its 767s (Freetown and Monrovia), but concede this is unlikely to happen.

cwoodward – Re Africa demand I agree. Re Royal Air Maroc I would be happy to fly them to Morocco but do not think they are in any way an attractive prospect for either leisure or business to anywhere in West/Central Africa if you are originating your journey in UK or northern Europe.

Why fly 3 hours to CMN and then connect for another 3-5 hours on a 737 and arrive in a West African capital between 1 and 4 in the night? A killer for fatigue, ensuring the first day of a business trip or holiday is a right-off and for security reasons arriving at those times – no thank you. Why choose RAM when AF/KL/SN arrive mainly in the evening hours on a wide bodied 777/A350/787 or A330 having had 6-7 hours of good service and time to rest?

I know RAM have 787s but believe (and stand to be corrected) these are not used on Africa flights on a regular basis.

Alan Orton01 – I did not know AA had started Charlotte 3 x daily – thank you for sharing that. And re FLL indeed I reckon that was all about attacking Norwegian (Level in BCN was also a tool for that).

AinHK and ASK1945 agree re “bucket and spade” routes although wonder if Olneyflyer was thinking of Greek Islands and Turkey etc, but the answer is the same – they are rewarding. I also think BA does these routes when EU hub rivals do not do so much and so get ex-US/Canada traffic in addition.

BA should be thinking more about premium leisure and as I said look at places where the Pound goes further. It would be nice to see Santo Domingo offered (to combine with a Punta Cana holiday) but that will likely stay an IB only route.

Re St Lucia/UVF – Virgin do go there again, having pulled out a few years ago. What ASK 1945 has seen shows what VS missed out on.

Worth bearing in mind also is the number of slot sitting routes – and give EDI as an example. Was there last year and there were 3 flights heading to London (2 x LHR and 1 x LCY) within 40 minutes. All nearly empty. Maybe 4 in club on my A321 and 20=30 in Y…

And re Virgin, I understand what is really holding them back is lack of trained pilots – hence them lending slots to Saudia and Emirates. Their fleet will not increase in the next 2 years and so with BA getting more 787-10s for example and making progress with recruitment (and retention) where and how they move forward remains very interesting indeed.

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AlanOrton1, MarkivJ, SenatorGold, cwoodward, BackOfThePlane, Olneyflyer

[ASK1945]

AO1 and sparkyflier: “Re St Lucia/UVF – Virgin do go there again, having pulled out a few years ago. What ASK 1945 has seen shows what VS missed out on“.

Virgin only pulled out of UVF during Covid and the aftermath I believe as they certainly were flying there from 2023. I know this because they and the BA crews stay in the same hotel as the one I stay in. Virgin use an A330-343 four-times a week from/to LHR – and unlike BA, don’t travel on with PAX to other destinations from UVF.

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AlanOrton1

[Javon]

Effective Winter 24/25, British Airways will suspend London Gatwick to Barbados and increase London Heathrow to Barbados to double daily. This will see BA operating the following daily seat capacity into Barbados from October 27 2024.

16 First Class

90 Club World

74 World Traveller Plus (Premium Economy)

292 World Traveller (Economy)

Total of 472 seats a day into Barbados by BA split between their Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner (BA255) and Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner (BA155)

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AndrewinHK, ASK1945

[BackOfThePlane]

Is that the aircraft (currently Gatwick to Barbados) that BA will be using to fly to Bangkok? Or is that too simplistic….

[Javon]

I would imagine so.

[sparkyflier]

Re Delhi, I think BA moving the early evening flight ex-LHR to a later evening flight – 21/22:00 ish, and thus arriving mid morning in Delhi, and ideally with an A380 would marketable, at least from an O&D perspective. If I was going to Delhi on business or leisure the current evening slot would not be attractive. I suspect they would get demand for F as well.

Re Barbados losing the LGW flight, frankly at least with those 777 you can see out the window easily and I do not mind the older style seating, and generally this product being less than modern is priced in anyway.

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MarkivJ

[MarkivJ]

Unlike LH, I can never see BA ever deploying an A380 to DEL, or any other market that isn’t the USA, Singapore, HK or South Africa. And the seasonality works in their favour. Yes, the pax load is there from DEL but BA just makes way too much money from some of the richer aforementioned places than a price sensitive market like India.

If indeed they go 3x DEL, the timings will probably align to the BOM ones.

[MarkivJ]

With today’s news of VS starting a 2nd daily Mumbai, I guess that means BA can’t plan any more expansion there. So they’d better focus on the 3rd daily to DEL

[sparkyflier]

Markivj-re A380 markets BA ply DXB but I hear your point.

What makes me think they should broaden their horizon is that last year I flew BA A380 to the USA and back – in the Spring. Both ways J was maybe 25%-30% full, Y was 20% and Y+ totally full! No idea about F but guess sparce. And at the time I thought surely this plane would be fuller and more profitable going to GRU or even BKK!

Re Delhi if there was so much demand BA would use bigger planes than.. 788! Suggest 777 with an F at a later slot would be the next step up.

[AndrewinHK]

BA fly the 787-8 to Delhi as do AI, it would seem frequency is of more importance, up gauging to a 380 would seem unlikely.

[CheerUp]

BA adding a winter 787-8 to GRU on Tue/Thu/Sat.

LHR-11:30 — GRU 20:20
GRU 23:40 — LHR – 14:10.

Nicer outbound time than orginal A350 in my option.

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sparkyflier

[sparkyflier]

AI in April use two 788 each day and one 777-300 ER – the latter with a First cabin. On the Mumbai route they ply one 788 and one 77W (based on a late April check).

But to all those in this thread and in previous similar ones that think “all of South America is better handled by IB” or that South America is “Iberia’s turf” it seems BA has responded to market demand and ARE increasing GRU (Sao Paulo) flights to 10 x weekly. As from the Winter 2024 schedule BA will add 3 x 788 with a lunchtime departure ex-LHR.

The timing is ideal too, demand to Brazil – all of commercial, tourist and VFR is in the Northern Winter and kind of shows Virgin the middle finger (who quit the route before starting) when they had the added advantage of having a partner in Latam – the biggest airline in that continent.

Personally I think they should have chosen 789 as that has a First cabin and indeed BA will be the only European carrier that has an F product but will not to fly it to GRU. AF has 77W, LH 747-8 and LX 77W, but guess the 789 F product IMO cannot really complete with these products.

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AndrewinHK

[AndrewinHK]

BA upping GRU will likely deter VS from revisiting its GRU plans, VS has ample Brazil access from Skyteam with AF/KLM, makes more sense for VS to feed the US network with India traffic, this fits the business model and provides more feed to Delta at LHR. BA has a consistency issue when they are plying routes with 2 different J products and charging the same, I know many who aren’t aviation enthusiasts who find themselves on the wrong BA flight from HK-LHR when the fares are the same, they get stuck on the 789 when the 777 club suite is sat at the next gate and both flights leave within 15 mins of each other. Sao Paulo hopefully won’t have this issue as it is a 788, and the first refurbed 788 with ClubSuites is due out of the Cardiff facility in April/May.

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sparkyflier

[Author]

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