[AndrewinHK]

To put into context my comments, I was commenting on incidents, whilst all may not be directly attributable to ET they seem more unlucky than most, some of the listed incidents are in part caused by lack of pilot experience, airport security issues, and or the geo political environment. I take these things into consideration when choosing an airline and or routing. ET might have a wonderful onboard experience, new planes etc, but for a few hundred pounds I would always prefer to stick to any airline that has been less unlucky in its operational life.

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sparkyflier, EasternPedlar

[EasternPedlar]

@AndrewinHK thanks for sharing your perspective on this topic. Other travellers’ views are always food for thought, and help one refine one’s thinking.

May I ask you (and anyone else who cares to answer) a question based on empirical data. Below are prices actually being quoted this morning for a return business class flight from London to Cape Town (April 4-10). Which would you choose if you were buying a ticket with your own money (i.e. not company travel).

ET ex Gatwick (A350 + 787) £ 1577 – 12 hour transit in Addis on the outbound
ET ex LHR (A350 + 787) – 2 hr transits in Addis £ 2200
ET fly out ex-LHR and return to LGW for £1874, in which case the transits in ADD are short.
Condor via FRA £3770
Qatar £4304 via Doha
Emirates £5002 via Dubai.
BA £6774 nonstop

I chose the third option. My requirement of flat beds was met, and I get Star Alliance miles. The timings are excellent, and I get one additional benefit which I have not put into this question – being able to fly directly to VFA non-stop from Addis, with a return from CPT.

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Johnnyg, AndrewinHK, sparkyflier, FDOS

[FDOS]

I’d take option 3.

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EasternPedlar, sparkyflier

[sparkyflier]

Agree with you and FDOS. And the schedules into LGW from ADD are preferable.

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EasternPedlar, FDOS

[cwoodward]

I would absolutely take the Qatar option if timing were reasonable -OW and a solid product.
If I was 20 years younger probably Condor Never ET.

[LuganoPirate]

@EP, Airlink are very expensive and though a nonsense as you have to change in JNB, have a look at SAFAIR. They don’t fly everyday but someone I knew flew that route ex CPT via JNB with SAFAIR, and it was half the price.

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EasternPedlar

[BackOfThePlane]

@cwoodward – if we ever all meet up for drinks, you’re paying!

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EasternPedlar, cwoodward

[FDOS]

I don’t subscribe to the ‘unlucky airline’ perspective and here’s why.

There are two types of risk commonly encountered – aleatory (random) and epistemic (knowledge gap).

Due to the laws of probability, aleatory risks cannot be predicted and therefore cannot be avoided.

Epistemic risks arise from a certain amount of knowledge and can be assessed/managed to at least some degree, e.g. there is a published list of airlines banned from EU airspace https://transport.ec.europa.eu/document/download/3195fabb-7575-4db9-85b9-ec5a77b481aa_en?filename=air-safety-list-2023-11-30_en.pdf

Whilst the average airline passenger will not know the exact profile of a carrier, the fact it is on this list makes it a reasonable choice to manage the risk by avoiding these carriers.

To consider an airline ‘unlucky’ is irrational, take American Airlines, for example, who have lost 60 hulls during their existence. Reference to the details will show (a) they have been around for a very long time and (b) they have flown a huge amount. They have lost heavy trasnports to pilot handling, mantenance errors and terrorism.

Would I fly AA? Yes and I will again in just over 2 months. Are they totally risk free? No, but to quote Voltaire Doubt is not an agreeable condition, but certainty is an absurd one”.

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Johnnyg, cwoodward

[AndrewinHK]

FDOS, logical fallacy, you are comparing the largest carrier in the world, so the probability of any incident versus ET is obviously much lower. The law of probability applies. I was being kind by calling ET unlucky, they have a much higher probability versus a European/Mid East carrier of an incident, unsure why you are bringing AA into the discussion, we were comparing routings from London to Cape Town.

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FDOS

[FDOS]

FDOS, logical fallacy, you are comparing the largest carrier in the world, so the probability of any incident versus ET is obviously much lower.

Not so. AA commenced operations in 1930, ET in 1945. Both have flown a statistically significant number of flights, therefore the comparison is valid.

The law of probability applies. I was being kind by calling ET unlucky, they have a much higher probability versus a European/Mid East carrier of an incident,

You seem to be relying on regression analysis to forecast, doesn’t seem sound to me, past performance/future performance and all that.

unsure why you are bringing AA into the discussion

Why not? It’s a good exemplar of a western airline.

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AndrewinHK, EasternPedlar, cwoodward

[sparkyflier]

Eastern Peddler – sounds a very exciting trip for you. And given you really want to see Victoria falls as part of this trip you did not have much choice from ET as the other airlines you listed do not go there.

However an option could have been Kenya Airways. You could have flown from LHR to NBO and they have twice or three times weekly NBO-Livingston (Zambian side of Victoria Falls) and then on to CPT. They now use 737 on this route as opposed to E190s.

Do send feedback on your trip. and in March/April the falls will be very substantial indeed given it is rain season upriver. If you wish share where you stay/have stayed at too and how it was.

As a very young kid I lives near there so have fond memories of both sides of the falls. Be sure to also see the Zambian side too.

3 users thanked author for this post.

FDOS, AndrewinHK, EasternPedlar

[EasternPedlar]

@ AndrewinHK your initial comment about ‘unlucky airlines’ had me pondering, but you’ve recanted! My first thought was of the Malaysian flight MH17 that was shot down over Ukraine in 2014. There were three other planes in that vicinity when the attack occurred -SQ 351, Eva Air 88 and Air India 113 (source Wikipedia), but MH17 got hit. MH lost two 777s in quick succession that year. Unlucky airline ?

You haven’t said why you think that Ethiopian is more likely than a European / ME carrier to have an incident. As FDOS has pointed out, and so does my stockbroker, past performance is no indication of the future, especially when some of the incidents were ‘black swans’. Anyway, even if I was to give you that, the statistical risk of a fatal incident happening is becoming minuter by the day. I read somewhere that incident rates have been halving every year. Doesn’t seem to be worth worrying about, then.

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FDOS, AndrewinHK

[EasternPedlar]

@sparkyflier, yes this is a very exciting trip for me. I did not think about flying KQ, it certainly is an option that should have been looked at.

I will share on this thread when I return, and will certainly visit the Zambian side. Thank you so much for the suggestion.

1 user thanked author for this post.

FDOS

[AndrewinHK]

Comparing ET to AA, which with 957 aircraft versus ET’s 146 I would argue they are not statistically similar enough to compare. Eastern Peddler, I wish you a wonderful trip, and if I had no alternate I would fly ET, they just wouldn’t be my first choice if alternates with a less colourful past were within a reasonable reach from a cost perspective. I realise ‘reasonable’ is open to interpretation.

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EasternPedlar, FDOS

[nsg007]

If you have been sold a single ticket by ET, then don’t worry. Many airports are now waiving security clearance if coming from Europe and the US and transiting. Regardless whether you clear security or not, it’s definitely doable or they wouldn’t sell you the ticket. Of course product, etc, BA is far superior, but if the cost difference can be huge. Go for it and don’t worry about transit. Its a fairly well organized transit process and they do have many tight connections – in some cases 40 minutes which all work out.

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EasternPedlar

[Author]

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