[FaroFlyer]

[postquote quote=995534][/postquote]

Seems quite a simple calculation. If cruises have been cancelled for March / April / May and the only option is re-booking by end 2021, then bookings should be up by more like 20% as passengers re-book for 2021.

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esselle

[MarcusGB]

With regulations in place from Thailand such as these, it seems pretty impossible to travel with the requirements as these, unless relaxed.

https://www.thaiairways.com/en_GB/news/news_announcement/news_detail/THAI_Requires_Health_Certificate.page

I agree that many Business travellers have and will continue to adapt for some time, to a restricted travel policy, also saving costs.
As we all will have noticed, many routes Worldwide especially in the Premium classes, are Not occupied with BT’s, but Leisure travellers.
How many travel to Australia or NZ on Business for eg? I hardly have seen any Business people travelling in Business or first Class.

Business has and will adapt for now, perhaps more permanently.
Tourism has stopped. Therefore the Leisure Customers have no reason to fly, these make up the majority on many short haul, and long haul Leisure routes. Tourism including hotels, require you to physically travel, be there, spend there, to occupy hotel rooms and Airline seats. Business does not need this to always function.

Countries such as Australia, Thailand, Indonesia, depend upon the Tourism industry, that is the Leisure travellers.
Until each Country, each Airline Policies are relaxed, so it is not so bureaucratic, it feels safe and welcoming at the destination, people will not travel.
The key to this, is the Medical certifications, the Science, and the control of the Virus, being agreed by the WHO as controlled or certifiable.

What is required above from Thai Airways and Thailand, is simply not possible at this time.

When the Science, the Medics learn how to control this spread, and the Health Services needed lessen, will control Government policies on entry to their country.
From there, the Airline Industry will have to take and shape their Business.
My guess, is that World certain Regions will make agreements eg travel within SE Asia, Within the EU, and it will start up regionally.
Intercontinental travel will not suddenly jump back.
We may even see more Airlines sending their own Airlines back to one stop long haul, (as KLM are flying again with some rescue flights, via KUL) and onto Australia, with a mere controlled no entry stop.
But this would have to be agreed between two individual countries, of safe conditions and entry, with some sort of Medical certificate.

Countries are desperate such as Australia to have people travel as tourists again, especially after the Bushfires, their economies prior to this were to run at a surplus, but this was reversed by the fires then floods catastrophe.

How Airlines will reconfigure seating in the light of this Pandemic and still make a profit, we will not know. First class isolation will be preferred but is comes at a high price.
But for sure in Business class, i shall be choosing Aircraft and Airlines, with Suite style 1-2-1 across, and not 2-3-2 or 2-2-2 any more.
Premium Economy may well benefit if re-thought out, but as for cheap packed in Economy cabins, I am afraid it will be a long time before people will feel safe to travel in this way again.
At this time, when Airlines have time on their hands, they need to be rethinking how they re enter and re-assure, on board in terms of re-configurations, cleaning and disinfecting policies clear, and a complete rethink of which Aircraft and configurations they choose to re-assure and regain confidence again.
They would be wise now to decide the configured A350’s, 787 variations etc, and changing existing aircraft to be ready for this, use the time wisely.they will need to re-gain confidence and space people out, and their Aircraft need to be ready for it.

But this can only be in place, when the Science understands Covid-19, the Medics can Manage it, travellers can be certified fit to travel, and countries make agreements to re-start their Tourism, and Business visitors, between regions, or even country to country flights.If regions control the outbreak, airlines are cleared between regions or individual countries, it could start from late summer. But it depends entirely on the effective Science, and medical Management of this World Pandemic.
Policies for Governments will be based on that, Airlines will be governed by this, as will our ability and freedom to Travel by Air again, initially very cautiously!

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Inquisitive

[MarcusGB]

From Thailand Authorities, and policy of obtaining a Boarding pass on Thai Airways.
I do not know of any country, and Dr who could issue the “Health Certificate” complying to “Pose no risk of being infected Covid-19” at this time, Worldwide! We do not even know of those who have had this, if they can carry it, re-transmit it, or it can re emerge again, as some cases.
Immunity is not yet scientifically established.

Will travel insurers now cover infection of Covid=19 and specify this?!!!

“1. Foreign Nationals
Upon check-in they will be required to present the following:

• Health certificate certifying of the passenger’s ‘pose no risk of being infected by the Corona virus disease (COVID-19)’. Issued no more than 72 hours prior to the travel date.
• Health insurance/ health insurance policy that shows minimum coverage of USD100,000 in Thailand and covers the COVID-19 disease.”

Thai Airways condition of obtaining Boarding Pass for travel to Thailand.
————————————————————————-

[esselle]

[postquote quote=995552][/postquote]

9% higher year on year…………

[FaroFlyer]

Hi esselle,

Did UBS say how many bookings were re-bookings? Were all of the bookings new bookings?

If a cruise line sells 120k cabin nights in year 2020, and 3 months of those are cancelled with the only option to book again in 2021 then immediately 30k cabin nights are booked / re-booked in 2021 in addition to any “normal” bookings.

[K1ngston]

[postquote quote=995573][/postquote]

I live in Thailand and you have to understand the Thai mentality, they are in essence a Military Government and take decisions as a Military entity, they always as a matter of course “overdo” things before relaxing and readapting their policies, they were slow to react like many governments and now over compensating that stance. We have government rules happening daily here and then readjust. That rule remains but then the borders are essentially closed so makes no difference … as we say here “watch this space”

[esselle]

[postquote quote=995578][/postquote]

…net 9%…..

[EU_Flyer]

[quote quote=995392]But I wonder if the cruise industry is more resilient than the Economist seems… and the same goes for leisure travel, and of course business travel.[/quote]

I work in shipping on the legal side. The projections by most of my clients are that there will be very little activity in 2020. Remember that much of the lucrative side of the cruise market relies on older customers. It’s expected that they will be the most conservative in returning.

[capetonianm]

Not just that but without wishing to sound callous or cynical, it is in the ‘older’ age groups that there will have been the greatest number of deaths. I am in my mid 60s, wife 8 years younger, and on our last cruises we have been significantly younger than the majority of passengers.

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EU_Flyer

[Tom Otley]

And on the Thailand situation…

Thailand suspends incoming passenger flights to fight coronavirus

[ASK1945]

[postquote quote=995589][/postquote]

capetonianm : my wife and I are both over-70 and are regular cruise goers (the last was in January this year). You are correct about the demography of passengers, anyway as much as we can tell, but we tend to book for times when they are not school holidays (obviously most of the year). But, our daughter (in her 40s) and her family (and their friends’ families) do go on cruises during school holidays and I believe that they will be the first to drop the idea of cruising again in the near future, because of the stories around the Diamond Princess and the others.

Disturbingly, what we have noticed is that older passengers (on the whole) were less likely to follow the good hygiene rules – using antibacterial rubs on the way into food areas and not handling food in the buffets. For this reason we have been keeping away from buffet meals for some years now, as much as we could, and then only taking food that was fully shielded so had to be handed to us by servers wearing gloves.

We have cruises booked for this October, and next July. We are still considering what to do, dependant on what happens the next few weeks.

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EU_Flyer

[capetonianm]

I have never been a fan of buffets, for a number of reasons, most of which are obvious, added to which I loathe people breathing down my neck and reaching across me, which always seems to happen.

Whatever and whenever our next cruise might be, I will make sure that we never have to eat from a buffet, anywhere, ever.

[DavidSmith2]

I am also not a fan of buffet set-ups, which apply not only to cruises but many hotels and, when it comes to breakfast, almost all hotels. Personally I am a coffee and nicotine only person at that time of day anyway but I appreciate I am in a minority. But for the reasons that Captonian and others outline, I always avoid buffets any time of the day. I am sure that the current crisis will only make them less popular and hopefully push many hotels and restaurants into restoring better table service in the future.

Certainly I think a large part of the marketing of travel, when it is restored, will be on health issues, particularly cleanliness.

[MarcusGB]

K1ngston – Thanks for the reply and local insight.

I know this to be very true with Thai or Military governments, and it is a good example of how they see internally how to control.
Yet you will now even more, the dependence of the Thai people on Tourism for an income, and generally those with a much poorer life.
It is a vital income, stunning islands and scape, and such a gentle fun people, that people will flock back as soon as they can.

But the quote as to how to even get on the plane and for a Boarding pass, is practically impossible, as from my Health Background, no Westernised Health Care System, would or could provide what they ask. Yet they have fewer known cases, and have taken even if later, a firm decision that will restrict travellers bringing it in. If the UK had dome this with a little notice, as Australia phasing it in, it would have been a more effective measure.

I was just trying to demonstrate how “one to another country” Policy may well work when travel is agreed as we try to exit current restrictions.
Travel within the EU would be an even greater one to foresee at some stage, or between Australia and the UK. I see this is how travel will begin to open up when it does and can, I do not see us all suddenly being able to start the same as before, it will start with shoots of agreements between countries or a region, satisfied much less risk a special consideration. Also major changes on Board to seating in all cabins.

Would you say that within The Far East, that the skies will open earlier than Europe for eg, as i think we can safely say, they are earlier starters with dealing with the Pandemic, more local to them months before?
If so, it could show us and others the way ahead, and how to open up Air Travel again, gradually.
The effect on the Thai people must be drastic, so i hope v much this will be able to change for the Country soon.
You have a greater insight than most of us from within , than us…

Tom – Thanks for that Update also. It is Blunt, but effective in many ways, at least it is a simple “No”.
The UK were fudging around with no restrictions of anyone inbound to the country. No checks at the airports. etc,
This was the opposite to decisions and immediate action in Malaysia and in Australia, effective in January!

As Europe is approaching their peak the science says, The Far East Region are further ahead than us, and it maybe possible to see how Air travel can begin again to return…?

I note most Airlines have grounded fleets until end April or May in The Far East.
Yet Australia looking at September onward …. as it stands now…

But for passengers Worldwide, i think they will want to see changes in cleaning & disinfecting aircraft being outlined, and potentially greater space between passengers on board. With Lounges being closed. not serving meals on board, anything but Biz 1-2-1 seating, also would not convince Premium passengers to start flying again.
Much i think has to change. before certainly Westernised Countries will simply re start to travel, as Airlines operated before.
Otherwise people will wait for a vaccine, which could be 18 months away, and many Airlines will simply have ceased Operating for good.
i think here, individual countries have to agree to enable citizens to be “OK” between one country to another, but the Airlines will have to steadily re-assure us back with many changes in the aspects of travel, as outlined above.

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K1ngston

[J_Pathmore]

Well thought out response but I believe there are some key issues here.

First, there are tens of thousands of dual-nationality citizens (US/EU for example) that returned to their home continents for the quarantine period. As soon as people go back to work, American EU citizens will fly back from USA homes to their jobs in the EU, and European US citizens will fly back into America from Europe. Thereafter they will continue to move freely between the continents as countries can’t – and won’t – refuse access to citizens/long-term residents. This movement in and of itself renders travel bans significantly less effective. There’s argument to be made that they will barely be effective at all at this point.

Second, it’s within countries interest to lift travel bans as soon as they possibly can. Travel has a huge influence on commerce and of course tourism. The world will be in a precarious state come summer, and to think that on top of it all we will attempt to ride through the storm without encouraging summer tourism (which as we mentioned will already be hit by a large portion of people opting out of travel at their own will), is something I don’t think governments will want to do.

However, if the virus isn’t under control, bans will ensue. The questions becomes at what point the EU, US, any country, can say “it’s under control”. We know for a fact that zero cases aren’t coming until 2021. So at what level will control be declared? Is it less that 20 new cases per day for a population the size of the UK? This is for health experts to figure out, but once they do countries and travel will have a clearer path towards some kind of normal.

[Author]

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