The fall of the dominoesBack to Forum
I realise all postings here so far relate to aviation. But what about rail ?
I fear some of the open access rail operators in mainland Europe may not survive. So far all the new open access entrants exist but there are reports one E European firm might merge with the state incumbent.
1 user thanked author for this post.26 Apr 2020
Standards have dropped with prices. It’s high time for that trend to be reversed.
One might predict that when it comes to the airlines in between the Locos and the ME3 it will be prices that go up, not standards.
Then again BA may be forced to clean planes better….does that mean more turnaround time, less efficient etc?26 Apr 2020
reduced choices of airlines + surviving airlines clawing back what they can = significantly increase in ticket prices?
I see that as positive. Carriers have been in a race to the bottom for yeas, trying to match the cheap prices of the LCCs, who operate a different business model, and those with apparently deep pockets, for example the ME3.
Standards have dropped with prices. It’s high time for that trend to be reversed.
i like your optimism – i do hope standards increase with prices if it does happen. however i do hope the options of <£300 flights to East Coast US aren’t a thing of the past!26 Apr 2020
Looking at Virgin one has to separate the business, which are the airlines, – Virgin Atlantic, V.Australia and V.America. – and consider the other principal assets. One of these assets is the name – V.Atlantic, V.Australia and V.America. That means that anybody wishing to take over the respective airlines will keep the name if they view it as an asset. The Virgin Group gains license fees for the use of the Virgin logo and name and means no effort on behalf on the Virgin Group. All they have to do is rake in the royalties.
However, it did not work out so well with the takeover of V.America by Alaska Airlines. Here the takeover entity has a strong brand which does not need the Virgin label so the Virgin name has been jettisoned and the resulting airline is called Alaska, as before.
In the cases of Virgin Australia and Virgin Atlantic there are no airlines with catchy names looking to take them over, at the moment. That would probably mean that some investment fund or other is likely to be the interested party, if any exist. Either airline could then be sold for a song and on keeping the catchy Virgin name Branson would still receive royalties. That is a nice tidy arrangement at minimal cost to the name´s owner.
While V.Atlantic is in dire straits Branson demands of the British Government aid to prop up the airline. That is something which should not even be considered if the airline does not pay taxes in the UK. If its domicile is in the Cayman or Virgin Islands (or some other tax haven) then let those governments fork out any money needed if they consider such a deal as worthwhile to them. The UK government should ignore the request and slam the door in Branson´s face.
The bearded one offers his Necker Island as collateral for any loan conceded to him and his Virgin Group. This is an insult as he does not own the island, so cannot offer it as such. He is a person who has an indefinite lease on the island, as any other so-called owner has. Necker island is part of the British Virgin Islands group which are a British Overseas Territory, not part of the United Kingdom.Its ownership, therefore, belongs to the Overseas Territory.26 Apr 2020
SA Express, state-owned. This has no connection with SA Airlink who continue to operate.
JUST IN | SA Express provisionally liquidated
6 minutes ago Carin Smith
State-owned regional airline SA Express has been placed in provisional liquidation after its business rescue practitioners filed an urgent court application, a reliable source confirmed to Fin24 on Tuesday.
This comes after practitioners lodged the application in the Pretoria High Court on March 25.
SA Express was placed under business rescue last month due to financial pressures that resulted from years of mismanagement and state capture, the department said. The application to place it into business rescue was brought by ZieglerSA, a service provider to the airline.
The practitioners claim the government deliberately withheld financial support to the tune of R350 million from the Department of Public Enterprises.
At the time of the application for liquidation, the DPE had indicated that it would determine its course of action after studying the liquidation application.28 Apr 2020
This is a tremendous thread and a roll call of airlines that are in trouble. There are so many that I am beginning to lose count of the names. I do hope someone is archiving the thread for future historians.
Would it be easier to ask how many airlines will still be flying in 2021? Will we return to one nationalised (part or fully state-owned) carrier per country, with only the exceptional countries able to support private airlines (probably in USA, but arguably nowhere else much)?2 May 2020
Which countries will be able or willing to support a state airline which may well be a money pit? There is a long list of countries whose national carriers have gone bankrupt and which have no national carrier. No doubt within a couple of months that list will have grown.2 May 2020
Comair, the franchise operator who operates BA flights in southern Africa, in business rescue.
The plans for a ‘new SAA’ going nowhere as there doesn’t actually seem to be a plan to get any finance.5 May 2020
Today, May 10th, @Avianca Holdings and some of its subsidiaries and affiliates requested to voluntarily file for Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code before the Bankruptcy Court of the Southern District of New York (1/2). https://t.co/KpcwYpqJTr pic.twitter.com/A9KBSZI7BZ
— Aeronews (@AeronewsGlobal) May 10, 202010 May 2020
The reason given is the Coronavirus outbreak
“Breaking: Avianca Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy In The US”, (Simple Flying 10-5-20)
To add to the above we have…
“Miami Air International files for Chapter 11 reorganization”, (World Airline News 10-5-20)
This apparently occurred on 24th March but I only picked it up today in WAN.
It has also been hit hard by the Coronavirus.11 May 2020
Rescue plan for Virgin Australia.12 May 2020
Much ado about nothing me-thinks.
Wishfull thinking and newspaper sales at the forefront here.
Is there an acceptable buyer lurking ?
I suspect not unless it is an existing large player with very substantial resources hoovering-up on the cheap.
There are not many who would understand and take a punt on this market.
I can think of only two…..13 May 2020
Seems that the Etihad/Emirates story is warming up again. Could be an interesting response to Covid.16 May 2020
I must say the more this disaster for the industry continues to unfold – quarantining arrivals for fourteen days being to my mind the final nail in the coffin, as it makes almost all leisure travel and especially spontaneous “let’s go away this weekend” decisions totally impractical – the more it looks likely that the industry is in for an extreme round of consolidation.
In circumstances where not only will not every airline survive, but the industry in even 3 years’ time will be considerably smaller so there is not room for every airline to survive even if the will is there, it is quite understandable that people – whether private sector white knights, corporate vultures or governments – will want to wait and see who has the best chance of making it. Assets are going to be very very cheap in a few months’ time, and once it is clear who will still be flying after the great consolidation, then will be the time to add new money to the industry.
As it is, for almost the first time in my life I sympathise with Michael O’Leary when he warns that governments will bail out basket cases (step forward most of the airlines mentioned on this thread), and thus deliver a triple whammy of bad news: an industry which is over-supplied with unwanted capacity, stronger airlines weakened by unfair competition, and taxpayers’ money wasted on a heroic scale.
Instead the industry should accept that the future is most likely to consist for the next few years, perhaps even decade, of fewer airlines, fewer flights, more expensive seats – and perhaps, for the first time for decades, a decent return on equity invested.
1 user thanked author for this post.16 May 2020
As no agreement has yet been reached between Lufthansa and the Belgian government over aid for Brussels Airlines it rather looks as though they may become a casualty. Rather sad because they’re not a bad airline and useful serving routes that no one else serves.
If the Belgian ‘government’ is involved I fear the worst as I don’t think they could negotiate their way out of a paper bag.16 May 2020