With the government of Chili finally giving LAN the green light to take over TAM (with a number of provisos), does anyone know which alliance is most likely to be the surviving alliance of the new airline group to be called LATAM, One World or Star?
If claims that the regulators in Chile have stipulated that LAN/TAM cannot be in the same alliance as Avianca-Tapa and Copa (which are joining/have joined Star) are correct then unless there is a major shifting of the plates LAN will be staying in Oneworld and TAM will be moving over.
If LAN stays in while TAM moves into “oneworld” then the rumours about IAG buying TAP will not come to fruition. I cannot see how the European authorities would approve such a takeover of TAP by IAG. Iberia already has the largest share on the Europe-Latin America routes. By buying TAP then the “oneworld” grouping would dominate.
What bets are there for TAP to fall into the hands of Lufthansa – TAP is already in Star Alliance – or AirFrance/KLM? This is a possibility since Lufthansa already dominates in Europe with four airlines under its belt so the European authorities might object to LH buying up another European airline.
I would suspect Air Fance / KLM is the more likely way forward. TAM used to have a tie up with AA then moved to *A I think 1 year ago. I think the Brazilians will complain but eventually it will all go One world.