[MartynSinclair]

I also agree that UK Plc will survive. The markets are off, but only to levels seen a few weeks back (…..at the moment)…

We are still part of Europe (geographically) and all the countries still need trading partners. Perhaps the dinosaur created by the 28, will be replaced by “green shoots” of a new trading alliance.

I think one of the good part is that if the EU is to fall apart, there is a certain advantage to being the first one out.

Waiting for the thread “electronic passport gates, post Brexit” to start rolling…..

[Edski777]

If the EU breaks up even further the chances are that the North Western countries in Europe will stick together.
One thing the UK has achieved is that the chances they will be included are slim.
From an economic perspective the Brexit is the most illogical move that could be made. Everyting else is guesswork and we’ll have to wait and see. Negotiating a settlement with Brussels might prove to be very hard as Britain needs the EU much more than the other way around. And the remaining 27 countries will want to deter others from leaving and punish the Brits. The Scots and North Irish may call for a referendum to break up the union and remain in the EU. Multinationals may want to move their investmaents to the mainland. BA , Easyjet and other UK companies will have to renegotiate their access to the EU open market hampering operations. All these predictions have been made and we’ll have to see what happens next.
In the short term the British are expected to lose, but that was their own choice. What it will mean in the long run remains to be seen.
I don’t have a particularly good feeling about it. It may all end up being a Pyrrhic victory for the UK and costly for the EU.

[Swissdiver]

Well we know that the People always votes against the EU (excepted for a revote in Denmark after months of intense brainwashing). Each time we are told refusing the EU will bring the ten plagues and each time the country that refused is better off (provided the government doesn’t overrule like France did). So we are to witness some irrationality, but I believe only temporarily. Look at the GBP for instance: it recovered almost half of the initial losses. And the market will follow.
Britain voted with the heart. It is courageous and bold as uncertainties exist in the short and medium term. But I am sure it will be for the best for the country in the long term.

[Alsacienne]

So what will happen to our maroon passports and the electronic chip?

Will the UK remain in or join the EEA so we can ‘fast track’ (!) through Border Control?

[canucklad]

Totally right Swissdiver
My companies shares have already started to climb……
And as far as I can tell, HMS Britannia hasn’t sailed off the end of the flat world

Here’s an interesting read……

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/1980680/dawn-brexit-breaks-over-britain-referendum-result-legally-binding

BT admin chappies, any chance of merging the 2 threads that are almost the same topically ?

[CathayLoyalist2]

Edksi777

“Negotiating a settlement with Brussels might prove to be very hard as Britain needs the EU much more than the other way around. And the remaining 27 countries will want to deter others from leaving and punish the Brits”

The trade gap between the UK and the EU is a reported GBP 60 billion in favour of the EU so the EU needs us more than we need them. I do not think a number of other EU states will circle the wagons more likely they will use the leverage to get the EU to change if that is possible albeit the EU elite might be open to change to protect their accountable existence. I am an optimist by nature so ” the impossible we can do immediately miracles will take a little longer”!!

[nevereconomy]

An interesting outcome and not particularly surprising that a large proportion of leave voters seem to have been the uneducated and the old. The immigration card always appeals to them as Trump was quick to grasp. It will be interesting to see the outcome, but I am feeling more comfortable all the time that my retirement income will be coming mostly from the U.S. and not here.

[CathayLoyalist2]

nevereconomy. that is a self serving and patronising comment usually found in out of touch politicians and EU bureaucrats – are you either one of them?. It’s views like that which drives results like the referendum. “you reap what you sow”

[BigDog.]

CathayLoyalist2 – 24/06/2016 12:08 BST

+1

Mehtinks neverineconomy hasn’t looked at the spread of the result. Only the major regions of London, Scotland and Northern Ireland had majorities in favour of remain. The affluent SE as well as the rest voted leave.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJcuKfcxo9w

[Carajillo2Sugar]

nevereconomy – everywhere it happens, the defeated elite always resorts to the line about those who voted the ‘wrong’ way being uneducated & ignorant of the facts and how the plebs should really not be involved in the complicated matters of running a country.

Take a more careful look and I’m sure you’ll find a long, long list of clever, successful (and well educated!) people from all walks of life who voted for leave.

[Bath_VIP]

In the end I voted Leave but I was undecided right to the end. Throughout I have had a clear position that I want the EU to genuinely reform in favour of greater democratic accountability and more powers to the nations. Had this been clearly on the table, I would have voted Remain.

But by the end, I had no confidence that the EU had the desire and will to reform in this way as evidenced by numerous “vote again” responses to past inconvenient referenda results, the failure to give Cameron anything of substance in his renegotiations and the general project fear and sneer attitude put forward during the campaign.

As far as I am concerned, the EU as it is today is dying and something new needs to replace it. Either it makes substantial reforms from within or someone seeks to set up a new EU and invites nations to join it. The problem for the EU is twofold. On the one hand, the continent has now caught up with the UK in terms of its Euroscepticism and desire for “less Brussels” as evidenced by the recent Pew survey (link below). On the other hand, the Euro requires integration into a United States of Europe. This tension has to break and I think it will break towards breakup.

Pew Survey results here, very interesting read. http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/07/euroskepticism-beyond-brexit

[Bath_VIP]

BTW, I stayed up all night analysing the results as they came in and one thing I noticed after about 5 declarations was that the Leave vote showed a good correlation with the results of 2014 EU elections. After about 40 declarations, I forecast all remaining declarations based on the 2014 elections and my crude model turned out to be a very good predictor.

If my analysis is confirmed in the post mortem, it tells us that this referendum was not a one-off but a continuation of trends that predate the Scottish referendum and all the politics subsequent to that. It tells me that project fear (which started in the Scottish referendum) didn’t lose the referendum but project sneer (which I have seen since the BNP won its first council seat in 1993) did. The 2014 EU elections showed that the Labour & working class vote was actually very vulnerable to UKIP and my suspicion is that subsequent analysis will show that it was the Labour vote that pushed Leave over the line.

On a separate point regarding a second Scottish referendum, polls have shown that people in Scotland, by a small margin, DON’T want a second referendum in the event of Brexit and would not vote for independence if there were. Of course, events may now change that opinion but I think Sturgeon is aware of this which is why she is keeping her options open at the moment. Finally, I need to look at the Scottish results in more detail but I think the ex-Labour working class voters that supported independence in 2014 might have been much more Leave than the rest of Scotland which would complicate matters.

[stevescoots]

Nevereconomy: I voted out, i dont see myself as either old or uneducated. Regarding the immigration issue that was never an issue for me as an internationalist. but, and this is a big but. when your home town has jumped from 35,000 to 70,000 in 7 years with the increase all being eastern EU, and the wages are the lowest in the region, but property rental costs are the highest, where for me personally i could not get an NHS doctors appointment for 18 months without having to choose to go at 8 am and sit and wait for 3 hours on the hope i can get one, then, there has been a fundamental change in the life of those who unlike me are not able to get out of it and escape every week or so. I fully understand thier issue with immigration. Its not those that have come, its the labour governments fault in the first place and EU rules that stop succesive governments from being able to do anything about it. bottom line is 90% of peopel voted how it suited them personally. the finacially secure generally vote in as they have done ok out of it. the average person out, because the benifits have not filtered down to them

[stevescoots]

Bath VIP, my sentiments exactly re your first post

[MrMichael]

Well said Bath VIP, I think your right.

My prediction for the future is that Denmark and Holland will vote to leave the EU and then the whole EU thing will come crumbling down as France/Germany realise they are clinging to a sinking ship. Then a new “Common Market” will be set up to promote trade across Europe……..err,……… that rings a bell!

[Author]

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