How much worse can it get for Boeing?

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Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 53 total)

  • JohnnyG
    Participant

    For the first time since Jan 62 Boeing has not received one January order

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-scores-no-january-orders-160052015.html


    cwoodward
    Participant

    I would suspect ‘much worse’.


    Cedric_Statherby
    Participant

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/19/boeing-737-max-debris-found-in-fuel-tanks-of-grounded-planes

    The bad news keeps coming. Though I add that I don’t know how common this is in the industry.


    cwoodward
    Participant

    ‘Much worse’
    For the first time ever Boeing posted no new commercial aircraft orders in January.
    Airbus took 274 new orders in the month and delivered 32 aircraft.


    Cedric_Statherby
    Participant

    It is quite possible that there will be many surplus planes in the leasing market: most airlines are reducing flights and I suspect some well not survive at all.

    Bad for airlines. Very bad indeed for plane manufacturers


    capetonianm
    Participant

    This is only a rumour but comes from a source I would trust. Please don’t shoot me down for quoting it. My view is that this a somewhat unlikely scenario but we are going through unprecedented turbulence and anything is possible.

    Boeing may split the company into commercial and military. They’ll let the commercial side go bankrupt to avoid the $12.3 billion drawdown and concentrate on the military production side.


    BackOfThePlane
    Participant

    This is only a rumour but comes from a source I would trust. Please don’t shoot me down for quoting it. My view is that this a somewhat unlikely scenario but we are going through unprecedented turbulence and anything is possible.

    Boeing may split the company into commercial and military. They’ll let the commercial side go bankrupt to avoid the $12.3 billion drawdown and concentrate on the military production side.

    Perhaps it will be Boeing’s new military company that shoots you down….


    Cedric_Statherby
    Participant

    If things got really bloody I would be rather more worried about Airbus surviving. The US will look after Boeing – chapter 11 is a powerful tool and in the last resort the Trump administration will support them, whatever international protocols may say.

    Airbus is an unwieldy multinational company. It is not obvious who would support it or how the EU will square national support with its state aid rules. And it now has one bit of it (the UK bit) not even in the EU.


    openfly
    Participant

    Boris has got billions and billions to give away, according to the Budget…he will support Airbus singlehandedly. More than he does for the U.K. elderly!!


    cwoodward
    Participant

    The below recent Bloomberg video sums up well the causes of the current disastrous situation at Boeing and indicates that the company is still reluctant to change the direction that has caused its near vertical fall from grace and current perilous position.

    Warning – its long but worth the time I believe

    3 users thanked author for this post.

    alainboy56
    Participant

    @Cedric-Statherby —————- I was under the impression that UK was no longer part of AIRBUS.

    Didn’t BAe bale themselves out some years back.
    I thought that it was not a national coalition but companies, namely Daimler from Germany; Aerospatiale from France; Casa from Spain and BAe from UK originally.
    Even if the companies were Government part owned/fully owned entities

    And some years ago BAe sold out on receiving guarantees that they would still keep the contract to make wings at Broughton etc etc as before.

    Did I misunderstand this whole scenario?


    notmenotme
    Participant

    This is only a rumour but comes from a source I would trust. Please don’t shoot me down for quoting it. My view is that this a somewhat unlikely scenario but we are going through unprecedented turbulence and anything is possible.

    Boeing may split the company into commercial and military. They’ll let the commercial side go bankrupt to avoid the $12.3 billion drawdown and concentrate on the military production side.

    The stockholders, which are mainly large institutions, would never allow the company to be split. The Feds would never allow Boeing to go bankrupt. They need a management change. BoD all need to be replaced. Only then will things turn around, reputation wise. Now the impact of the virus will fall equally on Boeing and Airbus. There will not be any discrimination there.


    RoyJones
    Participant

    Boeing will be rescued by the US government, 30% of its revenues are defence related. But at least double that is commercial. There are two segments to the latter:- single aisle and twin aisle.
    Single aisle is simply the 737 MAX. At present it is unlikely it will get US approval before the end of June and worldwide approval a month or two later. That’s okay because there are a lot of US bound planes at Boeing. However I predict at least 90% of airlines will wish to defer deliveries so losses on the 737 will continue into 2021 and possibly 2022.
    Twin aisle is just as bad. More than a few airlines will go out of business and their planes will go onto the used market. In other forum topics the consensus is that it will take time to get back to normal with one suggestion that this will start with country to country agreements to open up their DIRECT routes. That would cripple the MEA three which depend on hubbing. And they are the very airlines that the 777X is aimed at and have the majority of orders. That is a perfect storm – second hand values going down to peanuts and passenger numbers below break-even resulting in loss making flights. Why would they buy new planes when they can’t get rid of their slightly older ones.
    So the future for Boeing is:
    (1) the US government takes a large stake in the company or
    (2) (as suggested before) it splits into two – defence and non defence and the later goes Chapter 11 which means the purchasing airlines lose their deposits (that’s good customer relations) or
    (3) it manages to get commercial loans at high rates of interest which it can try to service through defence sales and a very limited number of commercial sales.
    Of course Trump will make it prohibitively expensive for any US airline to buy Airbus to ensure Boeing does get any US sales to replace ageing fleets. I am glad I am not a Boeing Director !!


    JohnnyG
    Participant

    Roy Jones

    2) (as suggested before) it splits into two – defence and non defence and the later goes Chapter 11 which means the purchasing airlines lose their deposits (that’s good customer relations)

    If Chapter 11 was applied for and approved, and purchasing airlines lost their deposit, surely that would mean that many airlines would take the view of once bitten twice shy and possibly go to Airbus unless they were given huge discounts to re order. Which again wouldn’t help the bottom line. Nor would Michael O’ Leary like that to happen with his huge 737 max orders.

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