[cwoodward]

There is intense media speculation (and the main front page headline in this mornings SCMP) this weekend cautiously endorsed by the HK Secretary for Health that the government is very likely to end hotel quarantine next week.

The rational appearing to be that the 3 day quarantine as worked extremely well with ‘no obvious surge in infections among visitors’ and the generally mild infection among the local population declining.

It is in my view unlikely that a senior government official would go public with the above unless a decision had been made….and so we wait!

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GivingupBA, esselle, MartynSinclair, Tom Otley

[FaroFlyer]

Was talking with a friend on Friday who is HK Citizen, but lives in Shenzhen. He said that the day before there were 8,000 new cases in HK and 3 cases in Shenzhen.

[Mark]

Good, I need a HKG fix and can re-route from KL for a few days spotting.

[cwoodward]

FF Your point being what please ?

[FaroFlyer]

CWoodward, you commented that ‘no obvious surge in infections among visitors’ and the generally mild infection among the local population declining. I was merely comparing 2 adjacent territories, with different policies on COVID, and also giving a little background. I think that a Zero policy is unlikely to ever succeed, and that herd immunity is, long term, a better way, but I am not an expert. The friend in SZ is of the opinion that the vaccinations available in China are not yet up to the task.

I remember SARS from 20 years ago as I was in and out of HK and Guangdong every few weeks throughout. I am looking forward to being able to visit China, especially SZ, as soon as practical.

[cwoodward]

More headlines and media news this morning suggesting that the border will open without quarantine prior month end.

I am reasonably certain now that the end of quarantine will happen imminently.
Cathay pacific shares already up 2% after the first 18 minutes of trading this morning and I suspect they will continue to rise further today.

There is however still some resistance among certain government departments but this appears to be more of a hangover from the previous CEs ingrained thinking than anything that will derail the plan………and so we still wait but now with considerable expectation.

I made 2 flight reservations this morning both for long awaited family holidays now that we will not I expect need to quarantine 6 persons.

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GivingupBA, Tom Otley

[christ]

@cwoodward i try not to respond but your facts are often so incorrect as I am assuming your are not in HK (after al you previously claimed certain airlines were flying here such as United with passengers when they were not and no signs of doing so in the future).

Yes there is news on SCMP (which you only criticised the other day) re potential end to hotel quarantine but how many times do things change. However this will not restart tourism as even if it is zero plus 7 that is 7 days of self monitoring and no access to bars or restaurants or many public facilities (and still the requirement to wear masks). They are even talking about adding wrist bands again on the same article – how is this progress re the rest of the world?

On the other hand Singapore is wide open as asia’s global hub.

You refer to Cathay share price – it was 8.64 at 930 and had a slight peak as you said but it was 8.55 at 408pm and so actually a decline for the day. So your expectation of continuing to rise was completely wrong as it actually declined!

I just wish you would share accurate facts.

[cwoodward]

Christ, I am puzzled as to why you post such personal rubbish about myself and always so negatively about the situation in Hong Kong.

One could perhaps be forgiven for suspecting that these always negative posts have some ulterior motive, but perhaps our views just differ and you are just very very fond of Singapore – whose airline despite the city in your view being ‘wide open” and Asia’s “global hub’ is still flying only about 66% of its global network which is perhaps why its share price is performing so dismally when compared to that of Hong Kongs Cathay Pacific.

Facts, thanks for sharing yours however on examination they seem to be negatively biased opinions rather than any sort of fact re the situation here.
Some real ‘facts’ would perhaps clarify –

I live here, am here and Hong Kong has been my home for the past 45 years. Yourself ?
I am neither a stockbroker or a share tipster by profession (perhaps just as well) and my yesterdays post written at 10.18 am was factual outline of the then Cathay share price. BTW the share price actually closed 10 points UP on the previous days close not down as you mention.

You go on to refer to the SCMP (which since the change of ownership I no longer consider to be the publication of record that it once was) however the headline that I mentioned in passing happened to agree with the dozens of other media reports of the day.

Just BTW United have for at least the past year flown one and sometimes 2 flights most days from Guam into and out of Hong Kong with freight and passengers (that I suspect are perhaps military personal) Today’s scheduled United flight UA2810 a B777 is due to land at 10.15 pm.

Your post goes on to rubbish any positive aspect of the predicted end to quarantine here – on which no detail has yet been announced- and your again negative views on same that mis-quote any report that I can find actually leave me rather wondering why you live here – if in fact you do.

[Tom Otley]

Since the SCMP is behind a paywall, here is the Bloomberg report on this

Hong Kong Reaches Consensus on Ending Hotel Quarantine: SCMP

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-20/hong-kong-reaches-consensus-on-ending-hotel-quarantine-scmp?sref=mmmxhwrQ

“The government plans to replace it with seven-day home monitoring, according to the report, citing unidentified people. The new arrangements would be announced after thorough preparation by government agencies, the report added.”

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cwoodward

[MartynSinclair]

The word on the street is 0 + 7 is going to be a paradise for people wanting to lose weight as not allowed into any restaurants, including the hotel, if using a hotel. It appears the 0 + 7 is to encourage locals to travel, not sure visitors coming to HKG have much desire to order from Food Panda & takeaways etc for 7 days. HKG is or was a foodie paradise.

Hey ho… hopefully Chinese based airlines (as well as CX) will start increasing schedules to create the hub Asia once was for cost effective travel to between Asia and the rest of the world.

Then all that’s left is for Putin and Zelensky to shake hands and perhaps the world can start to operate more efficiently and peacefully…

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Polly

[cwoodward]

0+7 is at present nothing more than a rumour and I would be very surprised if that will be the format that is chosen.

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MartynSinclair

[christ]

According to SCMP it could be zero plus 3 (v 7) but tests after. I am not sure anyone knows.

I agree that it is more for HK people travelling outbound than tourism coming inbound as most of the world has no restrictions (although it is not confirmed how the zero plus ? will happen if it actually does).

@cwoodward – I can assure you i am not passionate about Singapore in the slightest but just like most people in HK are fed up with watching the rest of the world open up. As far as I am aware no US airline operates any flights direct to HK with standard passengers (no idea re military personnel and what the rules are re that). I just find the position sad as more and more friends leave. Happy to meet if you are ever in Wan Chai.

I guess after the next few weeks, things may be clearer – however i don’t see an immediate return to airlines flying back to HK due to shortage of planes / crew and the time to adjust schedules – maybe summer 2023 timetable unless announcements are made very quickly (hoping for more to fly to reduce the prices with competition).

[Woodpecker]

Given the constraints, it would be unrealistic to expect a complete & total removal of all covid restrictions in Hong Kong. 0+7 is the next small step, which as Christ mentioned above may even be 0+3. While it is understandable that this is far from perfect, this would be the penultimate step to the complete end of quarantine restrictions.

Further good news is also anticipated in the removal of the requirement of the cumbersome PCR test 48 hours before travel. Hopefully by November entry into Hong Kong would be similar to the pre covid era.

On a separate note, we are on this forum to share information, interact & exchange ideas. To me, every comment is an education to increase knowledge & awareness. So it would be nice to keep aside the squabbling as that really has no place here, and dilutes the essence of what is actually a meaningful thread.

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Polly, FaroFlyer, esselle, Tom Otley

[cwoodward]

It is very clear now from remarks made by the CE and senior ministers yesterday that the opening up will be much cleaner than recent media reports and comments made here have suggested.
I would not be at all surprised if it will prove be a clean largely unrestricted arrangement as in many other countries but with some sort of test at the end of 5 or 7 days.

I see that the Cathay share price is up 3.7% on the week so far largely perhaps on expectation of a brighter future. On another positive note HSBC have said publicly today that per their research “Cathay Pacific has be profitably since July” – not many airlines could say that at the moment I suspect.

Re Woodpeckers post -Views of course differ but personally I see no ‘squabbling’ here rather an enjoyable yet frank exchange of views with often a hint of edge and humour but perhaps not as ‘woke’ as some would prefer.
The forum in my view is very well moderated,enjoyable and great as it is and has been for the past many many years.
It needs to have that hint of fun, edge and sometimes a touch of rancour as well as being informative otherwise it would become just another dry information board that few would bother with I suspect.

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Polly, Woodpecker

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