[Anonymous]

[sparkyflier]

I am not sure if many saw this one coming, but an interesting one. I wonder if this will take away the need for BA to start Colombo with its own aircraft, as discussed on other recent discussions on this forum, with the suggestions of 777-200 from LGW.

Malaysian Airlines is on the way, but who else do you see joining and who would you like to join in order for convenience or for more oneworld miles or status points?

To start the ball rolling I guess TAM Brasil will join, defecting from Star, but other airlines might include. . . . .Qatar and . . . . .Rwandair.

Qatar, Walsh has been flirting with them and Rwandair, a bit of a guess, but Oneworld need more African presence and Star has Egyptair, Ethiopian & SAA, Skyteam has Kenya Airlines, and Rwandair is a small, but well run and growing airline which could capture the growing east and central African markets.

[transtraxman]

This piece appeared on CAPA on 6th June 2012

“oneworld’s BA and Qantas may shake up global alliances irreversibly as Emirates and Qatar enter”

the argument says that IAG is courting Qatar while Qantas is looking to link up with Emirates.

Since AirBerlin now has 30% in hands of Etihad it looks like anything goes in that alliance.

It seems that Lan will stay while TAM might well become non-aligned.

Lots of things are up in the air. It seems that Frequent Flyer Programmes and codeshares are becoming more important than alliances, at least in “oneworld” which is a loose alliance compared to Star where membership rules are tighter.

If oneworld continues I would say the areas to look at are…
-Mexico – a big gap since the demise of Mexicana
-Europe – a couple of mid sized airlines are needed to cover any such loss as was experienced with Malev
-Africa – apart from Comair, West and Central/East Africa are a must to have presence.
-South Asia – if you cannot get into India then airline(s) that fly into a lot of destinations.
(the Sri Lanka news is on today´s CAPA )…………….

http://www.centreforaviation.com/analysis/srilankan-airlines-to-join-oneworld-furthering-its-revival-and-access-to-india-for-oneworld-75733

-East Asia you have to weigh the interests of your fellow members but mainland China seems a must. Hainan has been mentioned but it runs Hong Kong airlines in competition with Cathay Pacific(which has a cross-shareholding with Air China in Star Alliance).

The picture looks complicated and will take some time to iron itself out.

amended: I forgot to mention that Qantas is setting up Jetstar Hong Kong in association with China Eastern(in Skyteam) a further complication.

[TimFitzgeraldTC]

I don’t know the status of Royal Air Maroc but I don’t think they are aligned with anyone as yet – they could be ideal for One World for West African presence? Not saying if they are good or bad in terms of service. Might require BA flight (previously BMI) to be scheduled to meet connections better in CMN?

Skyteam might suit better with French heritage but they might prefer something different. Just a thought – probably won’t happen!

I believe the big issue for LATAM is whether they will be Star or One World. If they leave One World it will be a big impact for them (and also for Star as once combined they will be by far the biggest carrier in South America) so whichever they stay with will have an impact on the other alliance within South America.

[transtraxman]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Air_Maroc

“The airline is owned 95.95% by the Moroccan government, 2.86% by Air France and 0.95% by International Airlines Group.”

I suppose it all depends who will take up the 25% being offered by the Moroccan government? Air France, IAG or Etihad (its codeshare partner)?

RAM´s 51% shareholding in Air Senegal International looks very interesting.
amended: ASI ceased operations 2009

[transtraxman]

Having read today the comments on the topic….
“Is Skytrax selective in its reviews?”
I am astounded at the negative reviews of Qatar Airways. This is especially interesting since the news broke that IAG-BA is cosying up to that airline so as to get it to join “oneworld”.
This is explained in the CAPA article “oneworld’s BA and Qantas may shake up global alliances irreversibly as Emirates and Qatar enter.”

http://www.centreforaviation.com/analysis/oneworlds-ba-and-qantas-may-shake-up-global-alliances-irreversibly-as-emirates-and-qatar-enter-75416

I do not see clear benefits incorporating one over the other except for European and Australian destinations already in place which can be rectified easily. Please clarify.

[RichHI1]

All this talk of alliances set me thinkingas I wait for my plane. There is talk of Southwest having international intentions and Ryan Air may expand in future when economy expands. It is interesting the effect of a LoCo alliance around the globe with throughticketing, bags and may be points.

[transtraxman]

What do alliances mean, especially “oneworld”??

http://atwonline.com/news/other-headlines/

“Virgin America, JAL form interline agreement”
June 15, 2012

All the members of that alliance seem to be “doing their own thing!!!”
Has the age of the alliance finished or does it need a new focus??

[Shamsh1]

If LATAM is giong for Star, this will be a desaster for Oneworld, as there will be no service within Latin America. BA’s service is already very poor (Sao Paulo, Rio, Buenos Aires only) without any connecting flights. This will mean, business travellers will change to Star. Even today, Oneworld has no flight to offer within Brazil – simply unacceptable!

[LuganoPirate]

One reason perhaps for IAG to try and buy TAP?

[Hippocampus]

transtaxman – An interline agreement is not really a form of partnership/alliance. Most legacy airlines have them with commercial/alliance rivals and it’s not really newsworthy.

LATAM joining Star is highly unlikely because the competition authorities prohibit LATAM joining the same alliance as Avianca Taca and COPA, which is a member of Star. Nothing has been confirmed yet, but Oneworld is the favourite.

[LeTigre]

Virgin America interlining with JAL is really highly irrelevant because of the following facts:
-Virgin America is quite small
-This does not compete with BA in any way
-JAL is not that big in America
-Oneworld is known to be quite a free alliance
-Do you not think Virgin Atlantic would have asked questions if this was alliance related?

[Dolphin500]

Sadly Latin America would be dominated by Star Alliance, with AVIANCA, TACA and COPA joining the alliance this year…plus TAM stil part of the alliance. Leaving LAN alone fighting in the region with his affiliates in Peru, Ecuador, Argentina and now Colombia..where Avianca and Copa (ex_aerorepublica) dominate the market. I’m a fan of One World…but if they do not attack well..they can loose a lot there..they can loose what they dominated for years. LATAM can’t wait longer to get into OW. Biggest markets in South America are Brazil, Argentina and Colombia…They need to have TAM in OW and get stronger in Colombia, making their affiliate become part of the group of OW.

[Dolphin500]

Air Maroc can be a good candidate for the Alliance, btu they have strong ties with AF. I’m not happy with QF moves with their JetStar… they seems to have very strong differences with CX and BA. They should be stronger with One World, mainly when “Big Players” like Ethiad and Emirates are getting stronger there with Virgin Australia. OW president must be focus in “tight up” the alliance very soon…or will be in jeopardy to dissapear…as one of the users here said” Onew World is too loose…

[JohnHarper]

I will be very surprised if Oneworld in two years time looks anything like it does today. The world is changing and it is, I think the weakest of the three alliances.

My prediction is that Qantas will leave and form a new alliance with Emirates. They may look for one or two niche players but between then they would have a global product all the way round the world.

Cathay may also go, moving closer to Air China who of course are in *A and who will not quit that any time soon. That will create an interesting problem in *A with both CX and SQ playing by their own rules and cooperating with no one in particular least of all each other.

MH will join OW as planned and will become the strong player on the kangaroo route. In the absence of QF, it is unlikely BA will be able to sustain it alone and with no alliance partner at the other end their reach would be very limited. They may of course operate as far as KUL but up against the MH A380 and MH costs, they would not be effective competition.

SriLankan will join OW, they bring along a route in to India but not much else. In the absence of Kingfisher OW need to look for a new member and it looks like Jet will go to *A. Perhaps if Air India finally sort themselves out after being rejected by *A, they may be a suitable partner.

I can’t see any of the Gulf carriers except Emirates rushing to join up with anyone. They don’t really need to. Etihad will make selective alliances and I think Qatar will follow the same route. Saudia have already joined SkyTeam.

Oneworld really need a partner in Africa but they have let just about every possibility slip away, *A have the really strong position and SkyTeam come a weak second. If Royal Air Maroc or TunisAir join an alliance they will, I think follow Air France in to SkyTeam.

South America will be more interesting depending on how the whole situation with TAM resolves, I would not bet on them joining Oneworld.

Europe will change a bit too I think. Scandinavian must sort themselves out before too much longer, maybe LH are just waiting for the moment to buy them up as they lurch from one crisis to another. Air Berlin must sort out their offering – are they a low cost with a few frills or are they re-shaping into a full service carrier, we’ll have to wait and see.

We live in interesting times.

[Author]

Posts