[Tom Otley]

Very worrying news from Hong Kong (The Times – paywall)

Hong Kong powerless to halt Covid deaths surge

“David Owens, a medical professor at the University of Hong Kong, said that a combination of low vaccination rates or immunity, and a health system overwhelmed by the wave of infections, had contributed to the record toll. “All of these factors were entirely predictable and are the result of previous policy decisions,” he said. “This lack of foresight has shaped the challenging situation that Hong Kong is experiencing.”

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Swissdiver

[cwoodward]

The Times piece is unfortunately somewhat tabloid in that it only presents the more sensational part of the issue.

Importantly the death rate among the general HK population is extremely low – much lower in fact than that of the UK even latterly with the much milder form of the virus. The vaccination rate among the general population is over 80% and the population is very cooperative and judicious about mask wearing and the observation of safety rules with none of the the problems or issues that exist in most western countries re observance of safety rules.

It is without doubt that there is a major problem with the death rate is almost entirely among the older aged population with deaths being confined almost entirely to over 75 year olds many with underlying chronic medical issues and who are not vaccinated, who live in so called ‘care home’s staffed largely by uncaring unvaccinated under trained under resourced private ‘carers’ in government licenced care homes.

This system of private so called care homes put in place by by the us British mid last century is an utter disgrace with most not heated (thus windows never opened) little or no outdoor space and generally Dickensian conditions run largely for the convenience of the staff and profit of the owners.
The present inept government, now in place for some 24 years did nothing to update these horrible places or take any effective steps to mitigate the brewing crisis when the virus evolved but of course they still pocketed the huge licence fees.
They should be shot and may well be (macabre joke) now that the mainland government has become actively involved in the issue and has put competent managers in place and is demanding that matters be put right without delay.

Of course the main issue that I wanted to put across to readers of this forum is that, contrary to that espoused by some media outlets Hong Kong is safe, most of the population vaccinated and safety issues well observed and generally well administered.
Please come back to Hong Kong as soon as you are allowed – we need you.
Unless your poor and old of course…. l

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Swissdiver

[Swissdiver]

For me, the main learning point of the unfortunate Hong Kong situation lies in the fact you cannot stop the virus, no matter how tough are the measures. We have to live with it, now we have some knowledge on how to.

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Catalina, BPP

[BPP]

[postquote quote=1206048]

I agree. Just a great shame it’s now taking so long to realise this.

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Jacob, Swissdiver

[Tom Otley]

Yes, for a policy that continues to close the economy for travel it self-evidently hasn’t stopped Covid

Nearly Half of Hong Kong’s Population Has Likely Caught Covid

“Researchers at the University of Hong Kong determined that about 3.6 million Hong Kongers caught the disease through March 14. That’s up from an estimated 1.8 million infections they concluded had developed through March 7 based on disease modelling and an in-depth analysis of the ongoing outbreak.”

Just hope the restrictions are dropped and we can visit again.

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TimothyTanks, MartynSinclair, BPP

[IanFromHKG]

“The Times piece is unfortunately somewhat tabloid in that it only presents the more sensational part of the issue.
Importantly the death rate among the general HK population is extremely low – much lower in fact than that of the UK even latterly with the much milder form of the virus.”

I must confess myself rather confused by this statement. Isn’t the figure quoted the death rate among the general population? If it is limited to a specific part of the population and the rest has a lower figure, perhaps cwoodward would provide his sources and statistics?

Of course if his general point is that the death rate disproportionately affects one part of the population then he’s right, but I think that’s true everywhere, since particular sectors of the population have been more adversely affected globally, so I am not sure what point he is making.

However you cut it, though, the current situation is appalling. If only the government had had a couple of years’ warning, so that they could have planned appropriately.

Oh, hang on… errrrrr…

[IanFromHKG]

Oh, and I was also struck by this paragraph from the article…

“Hong Kong’s government said it would focus on treating the most critically ill patients, shifting away earlier plans for a mass testing scheme. But John Burns, an emeritus professor at the University of Hong Kong, told the South China Morning Post that Lam’s administration focused more on “incrementalism and bureaucratic process, less on achieving results”. He added: “The consequences are clear for everyone to see: an astronomical death toll. ””

Well, it’s just a comment, not scientific research, but to me it has a ring of truth. Which is why we have run away to Thailand until the worst of the HK madness is over, and why we will be adding to HK’s brain drain by accelerating our retirement and leaving at the end of the summer. In the latter respect we are joining a list of friends who have collectively spent many decades in Hong Kong, but see no point in staying for what is likely to be at least two more years of this unscientific and pointless stupidity

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Jacob, BPP, stevescoots, TimothyTanks, Tom Otley

[IanFromHKG]

Oh, and I just read this:
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1639259-20220316.htm?spTabChangeable=0

A marked shift from the earlier reports that all medical staff coming in from the mainland would be “supervised” (not the word used but the implication) and would not be able to, for example, prescribe medicines:

“A chief manager of the [Hospital A]uthority, Lau Ka-hin, said they will carry out similar duties as local staff, from taking care of Covid patients to prescribing medication”

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that it is necessarily a bad thing, and I’m not saying that they aren’t competent, but it just goes to show the extent to which the local authorities have decided to throw local rules and regulations into the bin (noting how, historically, HK has actively tried to deter foreign medical staff from bypassing stringent local requalification requirements).

Oh, let’s also note that incoming travellers are still subject to 14 days’ quarantine but infected local health workers are allowed back to work seven days after a negative test. Even though incoming travellers are tested before departure and constantly after arrival, but still get banged up for 14 expensive days.

I suppose I should be happy that Beijing is throwing so much help at HK. And at one level, I am. But the messaging is becoming interesting, with BJ increasingly emphasising that the primary responsibility is with the HK government. Supporting and distancing in equal measure.

[stevescoots]

Ian, “Supporting and distancing in equal measure” Spot on.

Having just had my Dongguan site shut down despite no cases and talking with my team there, HK is proving to be a very useful tool for the mainland authorities to blame rather than look inward at its own failings. meanwhile i am sat having a beer in fellow communist nation Vietnam which sensibly did not play politics with its vaccination and has had the ability to change course as events unfolded, and fully open to vaccinated and non vaccinated from today. My China operations continue to bleed and after 2 years blocked from there or HK its Vn that is getting all the new work and China left to die if they dont open soon

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BPP

[BPP]

Further to my initial post on this subject.
The situation in Hong Kong does seem to be led by bureaucracy rather than scientific eveience. It is a general fact that if you put 5 scientists to solve a problem there will be six different solutions, the sixth being the only one they can agree on – a worst case scenario. Include the input from modelers and things are distorted even further.
The evidence here now is that the early lockdown did give a brief window to get an effective vaccine developed and the majority of the vunerable given some protection. This is capitalism at it’s best, working to benefit the nation! But subsequent restrictions acheived very little other than to cost a lot of money and destroy the economy even further.
The UK government has at last realisd this and that the more you test, the more cases you will (unnessessarily) find, and that the only statistic that really matters is the death rate FROM covid, not a concurrent underlying medical condition. We now have also I hope accepted – at last – that the over 75’s (and I am one of them!) do tend to die in greater numbers that younger folks – it’s a fact of life!
I also note today that BA and indeen Heathrow have abandoned the need for facemasks – not before time as these wretched things full of bugs littering the place are a menace!

Hong Kong is one of the gateways to SE ASIA (and further) and will loose out big time without re-evaluation and acceptance of the real evidence. Like other infectious diseases we now have the knowledge to live with it; the fear factor has to be properly countered by informed discussion together with a drive to get the whole population protected but is this possible? They do need to move on asap!

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Jacob, stevescoots

[cwoodward]

Ian, The virus situation here has moved onwards (and detreated further) since my comments of over a week ago and so I feel little point now in going through the minutia of these.
No one of my acquaintance has any real idea what is the real situation is in Hong Kong or what is the government policy going forward and I suspect that is because there is no government policy.
Anyone that I know ,and there are several who have caught this milder virus have told no one and just quarantined quietly at home. Even my doctor has advised that he and his circle of friends would do the same and I suspect that the majority of the educated population is doing the same rather than be carted off to some disgusting quarantine centre with filthy communal outdoor bathrooms, inedible food and unusable Wi-Fi at best.
Many of our long term expat friends who we believed would never leave Hong Kong are ether now planning to leave permanently or leaving until this mess is over. and it makes me very sad to say that if it were not for our youngest’s schooling we would possibly be doing the same.

Perhaps though there is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel in that there seem to be stirrings in China (and Hong Kong) that the central government has finally accepted that the only way forward is to live with the virus rather than continue with the futile exercise of keeping it out.

My long term business partners who are well connected in certain government circles here and on the mainland have gathered indications that the Hong Kong border to the world (but not to the mainland) could well be opened mid April with the central government finally accepting that Hong Kong business and place in the business world is in rapid decline and will soon be irrecoverable (as will the Cathay Pacific situation) unless action is taken now. This would make perfect sense to me as the only real value HK has to China is its well entrenched and respected place in the business world.
Is this though perhaps just desperate thinking by an increasingly desperate business population ?

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Jacob, GivingupBA, BPP

[IanFromHKG]

I hope your business partners are right, cwoodward, I really do

[IanFromHKG]

[postquote quote=1206360]

And it appears they may have been right! [“CUT” is Compulsory Universal Testing, for those not in the know]

SCMP – Coronavirus: Hong Kong could ease flight bans, class suspensions next week, as city leader concedes tolerance for harsh restrictions ‘fading’

As Banks Get Fed Up, Hong Kong Reviews Covid Policies

One wonders how Beijing will react to this disturbing potential outbreak of commonsense in Hong Kong.

Shame that Carrie didn’t wise up when ASIFMA (an industry body representing financial institutions (a sector accounting for 21.3% of HK’s GDP)) wrote to the Financial Secretary back in October pointing out what was, to everybody outside government, already bloody obvious – that we needed an exit map and the restrictions were doing severe damage. The letter was very politely written, but well-researched and pretty excoriating. You can read it here. I have, incidentally, searched in vain for any suggestion that they received a reply. So the international business community was comprehensively ignored, but now something has happened…

Senior Offspring ventured the view that this may have come about because the latest “election” resulted in so many senior business persons well-connected in Beijing getting Carrie’s ear that she has finally had to bow to the pressure.

[AMcWhirter]

BA is the process of revamping its planned summer 2022 long-haul schedules.

Under the entry for Hong Kong it says London-Hong Kong flights “resume operating effective May 29. Daily service with B787-9.”

Of course in these uncertain times further changes are possible.

[K1ngston]

I feel for all my colleagues here and friends who reside in HKG and do work from there, I can only imagine what a mindf**k it is living there, and I am seeing friends and colleagues in their droves leaving to reside here in Singapore and return to their home countries.

For me this whole sad tale is best summed up by a comment made to me just the other day… and I paraphrase ” Living in Singapore is really f***ed up at the moment, but what is going on in HKG makes living here like Disneyland!!!!!!! The sad thing it is absolutely true, SE Asia other than Vietnam at this time hasnt a clue how to bring itself out of the malaise of the last 2.5 years.

Even when they talk of easing the restrictions they have made them so complicated nobody can detangle from them and we live waiting for the next hollow announcement of moving to normality….

Makes waiting in 3 hour queues in Manchester almost heavenly ….. well almost!!!!!

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GivingupBA, MartynSinclair, BPP, stevescoots

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