Airlines Alliance Evolutions

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  • Anonymous
    Guest

    Vertrek
    Participant

    As posted by other posters regarding the possibility for QR to join oneworld and CAPA to confirm it, what’s next to other oneworld members? will they be simply neglected? AY, AB, CX and even JL? What is the purpose of oneworld anymore as it seems like it only revolves around IAG.

    Here is my speculation, if Qatar to join oneworld, it will be a good news for the oneworld and IAG lovers, but it will be a bad news for some current members of the alliance as It will isolate Finnair, Cathay, AirBerlin and even Japan, especially if IAG to pursue BA-QR JV between UK/EU and Asia.

    The shift of balance for Eu-Asia route will inevitable be via Doha. This is a good news for BA flyer to Asia as they only serve limited destinations in Asia and will only need to do a stop before traveling further to the whole asia and Africa, but a nightmare to AY who is trying to build a strong connection between EU and Asia. What’s next for AY? I would think Skyteam.

    I personally think, for AY and JL, they are better off in SkyTeam. As SkyTeam presence in Asia is way stronger than oneworld, it makes it easier for AY to transfer their passenger throughout asia, thus, AY can be ST anchor in scandinavia while keeping their current business model (focusing on Asia-EU route) active and progressing through deeper cooperation with other ST members in the regions,

    Secondly for JL, if they were to move to SkyTeam and form a joint venture with AF-KLM and AZ, the total share (37%) would be greater than ANA-LH Group (34%) and would make them as the dominant alliance between Japan and EU. while with oneworld even if AY join the BA-JL JV and changed UK-Japan to EU-Japan they will only have a traffic share of 25%. Therefore, logically for JL to be in ST it would be a much profitable options.

    http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/all-nippon-airways-adds-austrian–swiss-to-jv-and-eyes-acquisitions-as-japan–france-liberalise-78166

    Lastly, If QR to be a member of oneworld, EY will follow suit to be a member of ST, And with EY wishing for AB to cooperate with AF-KLM, the decision for AB to exit oneworld for Skyteam wouldn’t be shocking (joining oneworld was a decision made pre-EY agreement), with this in mind, EY’s partner Virgin Australia will do their talk (prefer ST to Star) and join ST to further compete with QF-EK and its oneworld alliance.

    If you are wondering if EY entrance to ST would also have the same complication to AY as QR to oneworld, it will, but not as great and it can be reliefed by the presence of friends in the regions, such as Chinese airlines and Korean air. AY passengers to Japan will then be able to utilised KE extensive Japanese networks from comfortable ICN to secondary Japanese cities. While AY could forge a deeper relationship with the Chinese carriers for their passengers travelling inland to other Chinese city.

    http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/avd_10_02_2012_p01-01-502024.xml

    If AY and AB quit oneworld for SkyTeam, SkyTeam will then be able to compete with Star on the same level in the EU, but oneworld presence in EU will have to cease to exist as it will have no partners except BA and Iberia in the EU.

    Interesting and exciting development in the aviation world.
    Really looking forward to 8th October and EY-AF/KLM relationship.

    Any thought?


    transtraxman
    Participant

    Air Transport World has this article about Etihad´s intentions.

    “Etihad looks to lead equity tie-up trend”

    http://atwonline.com/airline-finance-data/news/etihad-looks-lead-equity-tie-trend-1002

    It makes you think that what Etihad is doing is what the oneworld alliance(and the others for that matter) should have been doing all along since their foundations.


    LeTigre
    Participant

    Vertrek, I am entirely unsurprised by your suggestion cause you are a skyteam advocate through and through!


    Vertrek
    Participant

    LeTiger,

    lol, I am actually, but I am not gonna deny it. I like KLM and it is normal for me to like SkyTeam, same applies to BA lover who loves oneworld. =)
    But I come in peace, I think BT forum need some diversity as the majority of the posters are oneworld fliers and people who are based in the UK. Why not mix it up a bit, at least I can contribute from a different perspective. =)

    But, LeTiger, you have to admit, it is funny to imagine if oneworld members in EU are only BA and IB.=p

    However, joking aside, don’t you think oneworld as an alliance is too focused on IAG? QR integration to oneworld will only benefit BA.

    ——— || ———-

    Transtraxman,

    You have a point there, but regulation restricts the ownership of shares one can have in foreign company. EY maybe prospering now, but the alignment of EK and QF as well as the integration of QR to oneworld will leave them deserted.

    If I am not wrong, MH tried to do that for the past decade and failed, and now give in to oneworld. EY will follow suit and sooner or later it will have to join an alliance, and it will most probably be SkyTeam as they are cosy-ing up with AF-KLM; there is no way that they want to cooperate with LH.

    Or they can form a new alliance with all the virgin groups (OZ, UK and USA), Air New Zealand and Singapore Airlines + Air Berlin, AerLingus, AIr Sychelles and other EY’s owned companies. But, I don’t think the world have enough good airlines for the 4th alliance.

    safe travel and peace…. 😉

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