[Carajillo2Sugar]

We can be sure that Michael “You’re all $hite” O’Lairy will have something to say on the matter!

Worth noting, too, that Etihad also have an interest in this deal (I believe they are a minor share-holder in EI).

[PatJordan]

Ireland’s Deputy PM is quoted here:

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/tanaiste-joan-burton-pledges-to-protect-aer-linguss-lucrative-landing-slots-at-heathrow-30935421.html

I tend to believe that Aer Lingus would cease to exist if swallowed up by IAG.

The Gold Circle programme and it’s members would be the first casualties. I speak from bitter expererience, as a former BMI Diamond Club Gold member.

The US Pre-clearance facility attracts a lot of TALT business originating from the UK and Europe, and offers a lot of future growth in this marked.

In partnership with Stobart Air, EI have initiated and grown a number of routes serving smaller airports. This is an integral part of Aer Lingus business. Would IAG be as interested in this niche? I wonder…

Personally, I believe that keeping control of the Heathrow slots is vital for Ireland (as an Island). I also believe that the for opportunities to develop and grow new markets will benefit Aer Lingus only if it remains independent major airline conglomerates.

[AMcWhirter]

Today IAG says it will guarantee that Aer Lingus’ Heathrow slots will be used only for Irish routes for the next five years.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aer-lingus-sale-iags-willie-walsh-gives-heathrow-slot-guarantees-to-government-30957143.html

[canucklad]

A big sceptical hmmmm from me…….

The language in WW’s statement has a degree of ambiguity about it. And although 7 days is along time in politics, 5 years will arrive in a blink of an eye.

And I predict with some degree of certainty,that our lot ,on this side of the Irish Sea will still be bickering over the inevitable future construction of the LHR 3rd runway as the promised 5 years comes and goes.

[BigDog.]

Canucklad 02/02/2015 17:39 GMT +1

Am still not convinced – 5 years is simply not enough as the economy grows -20 years minimum maybe should be enough for a 2nd London Hub to get established and provide an alternative.

I would also be worried about any “get out” clauses in the small print, if say the route apparently becomes uneconomical. Any accountant worth their salt can make something appear uneconomical thus invoking the small print.

Not to be trusted.

[MrMichael]

Perhaps London – Shannon (UsBorder) – and beyond to JFK/Miami etc, provided they sold a few London-Shannon tickets it might just work out very well indeed for IAG. Not sure how the return might work.

[PatJordan]

There have been many concerns raised from business groups, politicians, trade union leaders about the negatives arising from IAGs’ takeover bid.

It seems to me that one vital stakeholder group has been forgotten about: the regular passengers who have contributed much to Aer Lingus’ success. I consider the Gold Circle Club a good programme in terms of the cost of achieving and maintaining status to become eligible for the benefits offered.

Given the vast number of comments on this forum about the changes facing BA Executive Club membership changes, I would be very worried if the takeover goes ahead.

[canucklad]

I know what would put the Fox in IAG’s Chicken Hut, in particular IAG’s equivalent of FogHorn LegHorn………

I wonder what the reaction would be in the IAG/ BA boardroom if the Irish Government and / or Michael O’Leary immediately purchased substantial shares in IAG ?

[AnthonyDunn]

@ canucklad – 03/02/2015 08:41 GMT

After Qatar’s substantial purchase last week, they would view this as a vote of confidence – particularly if the share price rose as a result…

[BigDog.]

Am unsure about the “public reporting” requirement/amounts when one establishes a sizeable shareholding nowadays, however Anthony I thought back in 2012/13 Qatar became the single largest shareholder in IAG picking up a fair tranche of Bankia’s holding.

Could the recent 9.99% announcement being more due to hitting a threshold (through incremental purchases over time) than making a “substantial purchase last week”?

One hopes the Irish Govt., shareholders, passengers etc take a good look at Walsh’s track record of honouring commitments.

[JohnHarper]

I’m glad to see good sense is prevailing from the Irish government with regard to this pitch by Walsh and his cronies at the IAG, like others I think it would be a disaster for Ireland and Aer Lingus would vanish from the face of travel in no time, what IAG want would be subsumed into BA and the remainder thrown to O’Leery.

[Carajillo2Sugar]

“IAG faces opposition over Aer Lingus bid “

According to the TTG Website……

http://www.ttgdigital.com/news/iag-faces-opposition-over-aer-lingus-bid/4695148.article

[BigDog.]

A side but relevant issue…
Following its 9th consecutive defeat in appealing being forced to sell its 28.5% holding in Aer Lingus, Ryanair is again challenging the ruling – this time on human rights grounds.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/11408051/Ryanair-forced-to-sell-Aer-Lingus-stake-under-Court-of-Appeal-ruling.html

…The decision follows an almost decade-long legal tussle between the two Dublin-based airlines and could spell a third return to the UK’s Supreme Court….

Further
…Mr Walsh yesterday said that IAG’s takeover of Ryanair was not dead and believed the government, which owns a 25pc stake, was still open to a deal despite political opposition….

– Takeover of Ryanair??? A DT typo should be Ryanair’s stake or Aer Lingus.

A major sticking point is the 5 year limit on retaining LHR slots for Aer Lingus, apparently Walsh will not budge on this….. Why not?

The Eire govt. is right to hold out for 15-20 years as connections are critical to Eire business, though personally would view maintaining independence as being the better option .

[TominScotland]

Went through the Aer Lingus Lounge in Dublin this morning – it is a lovely space but offers really woeful catering – a couple of cereal options, a bit of fruit, pastries and scones and little more. Notwithstanding Pat Jordan’s loyal defence of the Lounge, maybe one benefit of an IAG takeover might be to bring the catering up to BA’s (admittedly not spectacular) levels – say up to that of regional offerings in Glasgow and Edinburgh??

[BigDog.]

To the corp accountants/tax specialist out there.

Given the corp tax rate in Spain is35% whereas Eire is 12.5% (UK is 21%) is there a tax break angle/opportunity?

http://www.kpmg.com/global/en/services/tax/tax-tools-and-resources/pages/corporate-tax-rates-table.aspx

[Author]

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