[AMcWhirter]

A news piece on independent.ie today reveals that transatlantic traffic out of Dublin grew by 14 per cent in 2014 which is the highest ever recorded.

Quite a few of these passengers would have originated in N Ireland to avoid APD and take advantage of the greater variety of destinations served non-stop from Dublin compared to Belfast.

There were also 750,000 transfer passengers in 2014 which represent a huge 37 per cent increase.

http://www.independent.ie/life/travel/travel-news/dublin-airport-flying-high-after-record-year-for-transatlantic-traffic-30900426.html

[transtraxman]

I should like to remind Canucklad and Simon1 that we are talking about an IAG takeover of EI not a BA takeover. There is a big difference.

There would be four hubs.
BA at LHR
EI at Dublin
Iberia/Iberia Express at Madrid
Vueling at Barcelona…
…. as well as subsidiary airports.

Each would have its own role and market. The secret would be how each would feed the other.
As Alex states more power to my argument.

[canucklad]

Hi Simon & transtraxman
I totally agree with you both, if I was consulting for IAG I would recommend EI as a good fit for IAG,citing many of the valid points made by both of you.

However if I was consulting for a consumer protection agency/regulator I would be negligent in my duties if I didn’t point out the potential negatives that would potentially arise by allowing a company to increase its dominant position in the UK market, by swallowing up yet another serious competitor.

[SimonS1]

I agree, fair point, but my point was really that for people based in the regions and travelling transatlantic it would complement BA well as a hub.

Madrid has it’s role to play (LatAm) but if I was going from Manchester to say NY or Orlando it wouldn’t be via Madrid.

[canucklad]

Loathed to say I live in a region Simon. . …. : )
Anyway if I was flying to a North American destination served by Aer Lingus,particularly a U.S. city, EI would be my first choice from EDI, especially as they’re CURRENTLY very competitive on the pricing front. And how I wished they flew to YVR.

So,at the moment I have a DUB choice which is in direct competition to BA & LHR. My concern would be ,with the removal of that direct competition ,prices increase and when there is a downturn, the IAG Bigwigs first instinct is to protect its most prestigious asset ,and the consequence of that might be removing that DUB hub option from EDI forcing me to LHR.

[BigDog.]

Alex – further to your point wrt APD in Ireland.

I had heard that Belfast-Stormont had abolished the charge from 2013, and is reflected n this BBC article

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20227294

Yet the Belfast Airport CEO is still fighting it

http://www.belfastairport.com/en/news/1/403/apd-%E2%80%93-the-fight-goes-on.html

Can you explain?

[BigDog.]

Am in agreement with Simon and Canucklad
As an IAG shareholder it is a good move as Aer Lingus is already performing well and as long as IAG leave it alone, will compliment current BA operations. It also takes out what could become a significant emerging competitor and banked hub location for Atlantic routes on its doorstep – especially for regional pax as already noted.

However, as a free market advocate, I view it as a spoiler, a bad move for passengers and employees alike. I would prefer to see Aer Lingus increase the ex-DUB market (fed by Ryanair) with all its attractions, on its own – which it has already admirably started doing. Imo it will be in the best interests of the company, employees, passengers and Eire economy to continue – maybe assisted by a non European partner.

The IAG buy-out imo is anti-competitive and will increase the strangle hold on the fully utilised LHR that IAG already has – around 10x as many slots when compared to the next biggest.

Further, for the US-Eire relations already stated plus Walsh is Dublin born with very close connections in the Irish government, being Chair of its debt agency, I do not see any risk whatsoever of the Aer Lingus brand being subsumed as some predict.

http://www.newsrt.co.uk/news/ireland-taps-airline-chief-walsh-for-debt-agency-as-bailout-exit-nears-2105381.html

However as is well known he cannot be trusted…..

http://www.independent.ie/business/world/iag-ceo-willie-walsh-i-have-no-designs-on-aer-lingus-30668258.html

Great pity Christoph Mueller is off to the toughest job in aviation – reviving Malaysia Airlines, as he would be well capable of delivering substantial growth with an independent Aer Lingus (or partnered with SQ, CX, EY) alternatively a shoe in as an ethical IAG boss.

[pat0406]

I thoroughly agree Sir. Willie Walsh, tho has to be said turned around the fortunes of Aer Lingus in his days at the helm, but since then with his move to BA and IAG has vehemently denied any aspiration of taking the Carrier into the IAG fold and family .Suddenly now his sway has altered. The monopoly it would potentially create on the DUB-LHR route one of the world’s busiest in terms of frequencies and passenger numbers, could prove catastrophic for Irish travelleres to UK and beyond. And vice versa needless to say. If Etihad on the otherhand were to increase their stake in the Irish carrier, longterm benefits for Aer Lingus could prove more substantial, in terms of code sharing, routes and passenger numbers, not least the maintenance of the staus quo with the invaluable Aer Lingus slots at LHR, and continued competition for Irish/UK travellers on the LHR-DUB routes!

[AMcWhirter]

Hello BigDog

The revisions to APD ex-N Ireland apply only to direct flights. In the case of long-haul services, there is only a single direct flight ex-Belfast and that is United’s service to NYC Newark.

United threatened to quit Belfast some years ago unless APD was cut … which is what the N Ireland govt did.

So if you fly long-haul ex-Belfast via the UK, Holland etc then you pay standard UK rates of APD.

KLM is returning to Belfast after a gap of some years and last month the UK manager commented on the APD situation.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/news/klm-chief-air-duty-puts-belfast-at-competitive-disadvantage-30892862.html

[PatJordan]

Latest update on Irish media:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0212/679564-willie-walsh/

[AMcWhirter]

“Rejecting Aer Lingus bid would send appalling message.”

That’s the view of Cityjet chairman Pat Byrne today.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/rejecting-aer-lingus-bid-would-send-appalling-message-says-cityjet-chairman-661947.html#.VNyt3rzKZRw.twitter

[JohnHarper]

I love this line:

“Walsh said IAG wanted to buy Aer Lingus because it was a good airline with a strong brand”

If that’s a guiding principal why on earth did he get involved with Iberia or has the idiot learned something at last?

In any event there’s no further guarantee beyond five years so nothing has changed. He might also realise that if Aer Lingus want more aircraft they are probably in a better position to buy them than IAG.

[canucklad]

Just read the pat Byrne comments…….
And this from a man who’s CEO of an airline that AF ditched out of their group!!

I’ve also read RTÉ’s Business Editor David Murphy ‘s blog on the subject and he does make some favorable points that sway s me more towards thinking that IAG’s takeover would be good for EI and Ireland but not enough to convince me it’s in the long term interest of me, the consumer.

Look at the demise of BMI and learn the story of the scorpion and the frog !

[transtraxman]

John Harper @12/02/15 13.54 hrs.

….”if Aer Lingus want more aircraft they are probably in a better position to buy them than IAG”…..

Please, how do you justify that statement?

[PatJordan]

canucklad, you’re spot on regarding BMI.

WW has stated that: there would be some job losses in administration, due to replication occurring elsewhere in the company.

Does this mean WW intends to “replicate” the Aer Lingus Gold Circle Club “elsewhere in the company” ??

Given the many comments (on another thread) regarding changes to Executive Club, this might not be in the best interests of Gold Circle members.

[Author]

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