A380- new BA order this year?

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This topic contains 14 replies, has 9 voices, and was last updated by  Flightlevel 22 Jan 2018
at 15:55
.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 15 total)

  • Flightlevel
    Participant

    BA has already stated its interest in more A380s and hinted on used aircraft.
    Now apparently used A380s are too costly to upgrade and John Leahy has said there is maybe a new A380 order this year.
    Eight at least are required to continue BA fleet expansion and no doubt to replace older types?


    rferguson
    Participant

    Flightlevel – you are right. Willie Walsh is on record as saying that BA would only likely buy A380’s from the second hand market. EK just placed an order for 30-odd A380’s but it will be interesting to see how many of these will be to add to the current fleet and how many will be used to retire existing A380’s within their fleet. SQ have already retired their first few delivered A380’s. So we may see a glut of them on the second hand market soon.

    I’m not really sure what BA would use them for. Willie Walsh also stated that for BA they are only useful for slot restricted city pairs where frequency isn’t off the upmost importance.


    AMcWhirter
    Participant

    rferguson – It’s likely BA would use extra A380s on its transatlantic routes with, perhaps, the exception of JFK where ground space is limited.

    BA’s West Coast routes must be a real money-spinner.

    I checked LHR-LAX business class prices at the end of January (out Monday, back Friday) and the website was showing fares of around £7,000 return.


    Flightlevel
    Participant

    I’m not really sure what BA would use them for. Willie Walsh also stated that for BA they are only useful for slot restricted city pairs where frequency isn’t off the upmost importance.

    WW maybe using negotiating tactics and some used A380s have GE engines not like BA’s RR.
    He will be buying for the future and more routes will become slot restricted.
    LHR-HKG is already very busy and LHR-SIN can do with a daily A380.


    MartynSinclair
    Participant

    retirement after only 10 years service??


    AisleSeatTraveller
    Participant

    Flightlevel – trouble with double daily into Singapore is that the 777 (currently) goes on to Sydney, would SIN-SYD support the additional capacity (Qantas will have 380s back on the route soon, plus SQ have latest cabin product 380 on the route) or could BA go 787-9 to Sydney via Perth (like Qantas into Melbourne)

    that said I’d welcome the end of the clapped out 747s (normally fly in Prem Econ and some have the launch seats circa 2000, I always attempt to avoid)


    greyhawkgeoff
    Participant

    re AisleSeatTraveller. BA 11 is already an A380 not a 747-400, and BA 15 is a 777-300. What more can one ask for a route of this length and modest yield – the latter because of the intense competition both direct from Singapore Airlines and all the Gulf based airlines with indirect service. Let alone the growing addition of south east Asian and Chinese airlines.


    Ekond222
    Participant

    …It’s been nearly 5 years since BA operated a 747 to Sydney…and over 3 years to Singapore…


    AisleSeatTraveller
    Participant

    greyhawhgeoff – read my post (two separate points), never did i say (nor imply) there was a 747 on Singapore


    FDOS_UK
    Participant

    retirement after only 10 years service??

    The engines are probably worth more than the airframe and thus these older and less efficient A380’s may be worth more parted out (not that I calim any expertiese in this area) of knowledge), but it has happened with some 777 at relatively early stages of the lifecycle.


    Stowage222
    Participant

    FDOS – I recall reading recently that as there is no market for second hand A380’s their scrap value (including parts) is in the region of $80m I think.


    FDOS_UK
    Participant

    FDOS – I recall reading recently that as there is no market for second hand A380’s their scrap value (including parts) is in the region of $80m I think.

    That’s interesting. According to CNBC the average list price of an A380 is $445.6 million.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/15/airbus-admits-it-will-have-to-stop-making-its-a380-if-theres-no-new-deal-with-emirates.html

    Presumably, few airlines pay list, but if you depreciate this cost using the straight line method (Assuming a useful life of 20 years) and then allow for the sale of the parts that would represent a loss of about $142m at 10 years old – ouch.

    If using accelerated depreciation methods (where allowed and if making a large enough profit) and sold the parts for $80m, you might be able to bring that down close to $70-80m in ten years, e.g. with double declining balance – still ouch.

    These fag packet estimates are probably miles out, though, but it does remind me why I don’t invest in aviation companies!


    Flightlevel
    Participant

    Depends if all airlines replace their A380s at 10 years and many will retain them longer, how long are BA 767 and 747s in service?
    More likely with slot restrictions virtually everywhere (maybe except China and Dubai) that airlines will keep A380s in service until their value is zero and they will ultimately be recycled like aluminium cans!


    FDOS_UK
    Participant

    Depends if all airlines replace their A380s at 10 years and many will retain them longer, how long are BA 767 and 747s in service? More likely with slot restrictions virtually everywhere (maybe except China and Dubai) that airlines will keep A380s in service until their value is zero and they will ultimately be recycled like aluminium cans!

    I think you are missing the point, slightly, we are talking about a certain set of early A380s that were payload limited – the retirements HAVE started and the service life of Boeings at BA is not relevant to these early Airbusses.

    Also, we don’t know what price was paid by SQ nor whether they received any compensation if the aircraft failed to deliver the promised performance.

    Other, later model, A380s may well become sought after used purchases by some airlines in due course.


    Flightlevel
    Participant

    The point exactly,later model A380s (like BA,etc.) will probably remain in service much longer and depreciate to zero over their full service lives.

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