Reply To: BA Winter 2013 +, new aircraft, new routes:- your predictions & wish list

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Hey sparkyflyer, thanks!

A good proportion of the traffic on the BA011/012 SIN terminator was connecting onto QF flights from SIN to SYD/BNE/MEL/PER/ADL and Jetstar to DRW/CNS during the JSA. Even when the JSA was alive and kicking the BA011 was often canx due to low loads and at other times tended to carry a lot of staff. Obviously with there being no feed ex SIN anymore via QF I can imagine the flight will struggle a bit as a stand alone. Who knows, maybe it will go to a 777 or even a 787. But who can say? With the 787 coming it does allow airlines to ‘test out’ new ‘long thin’ routes such as KUL or CGK without having to fill hundreds of seats or endure high operating costs.

I don’t think we will see any new routes to Australia though. The yields are just too poor. If you do some searching you can fly in J return to Sydney say in October with fares starting at £2123. Yet a return to JFK on the same date in J and you are looking at £1243. So LHR-SYD is not even double the fare of LHR-JFK, yet represents at least three times the aircraft utilisation. By the time one BA aircraft leaves LHR, gets to SYD, turns around and arrives back into LHR you are looking at 58 hours including the day it spends on the tarmac in Sydney. Imagine how many times the same aircraft could fly back and forwards to the east coast of the US, the middle east or north africa.

Even when you look at a stand alone LHR-SIN flight. The return fare on the same dates is £1636. So BA is only gaining a few hundred quid more revenue for the extra SIN-SYD-SIN sectors at 7.5hrs a pop.

I would love to see more of BA in OZ. But sadly, I think it will just be in the guise of a BA code on a CX or QR bird.

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