Tim – Cannot give you a definitive answer and I don’t believe anyone will be able to, given the complexity of global aviation (i.e. so many different airports, airlines let alone the quality of staff etc worldwide), a definitive answer.
As I have mentioned before, MCTs used to be accurate and reliable years ago but then airports/airlines began using them as a marketing tool and nowadays they may only be achieved under perfect conditions. I say “may” because some airline/airport MCTs are more generous than others.
So the advice is always to allow lots of extra connecting time in addition to the MCT.