Features

In focus

30 Mar 2012 by Alex McWhirter

Alex McWhirter examines topical business travel issues. This month: the future of nonstop flights between the US and Asia.

From May 1, Thai Airways passengers bound for Los Angeles must sit on the plane for longer. Today’s passengers fly the route nonstop but from next month they must touch down en route.

Thai started direct flights from Bangkok to New York and Los Angeles in 2005 using special performance A340-500s. But New York ended in 2008 and now the Los Angeles flight is also to cease, to be replaced by a conventional B777-200 that, because it does not have the same range, must stop in Seoul.

The A340-500s – used by Thai and its nearby rival, Singapore Airlines (SIA) – were set to revolutionise transpacific flying. Instead of time-wasting stops on the way, passengers from South East Asia would board a plane in Bangkok or Singapore and not get off until they touched down in the US. The time savings varied between a couple of hours in the case of Los Angeles, to more than four hours for New York. That’s why Thai’s nonstop service will be missed by business travellers on global trips as well as by end-to-end passengers.

What went wrong? The economics of ultra long-haul flights (those lasting 15 hours or more) are determined not only by demand but also by the cost of fuel. A passenger taking Thai’s 16-hour flight to Los Angeles uses more fuel than one taking a 12-hour 50-minute flight to London. But the ticket cost does not rise in line with the extra mileage.

Consider that Thai charges upwards of 145,925 baht (£3,044) for a business class return to London, whereas the same ticket between Bangkok and Los Angeles costs less, at upwards of 133,025 baht (£2,775). No wonder a Thai Airways executive quipped to the media a few years back that his A340-500 flights would need to run 120 per cent full to turn a profit.

Ultra long-haul planes were once described by Air France’s ex-chief executive, Pierre-Henri Gourgeon, as “flying fuel tankers with few people on board”. On a very long flight, the A340-500 is full to the brim with kerosene so in the early stages it is burning fuel simply to carry fuel. The A340-500 was conceived in the days of cheap oil. But when kerosene became expensive, as it was around 2007 and is again today, the airlines found their costs rising.

SIA continues with its daily nonstop service between Singapore and New York (the world’s longest nonstop flight) along with a five-times-weekly service to Los Angeles (cut from daily in May last year). It has improved the A340-500’s economics by throwing out its former business and economy seats – the aircraft are now business class only. They come with 100 fully-flat beds so, in contrast to Thai, whose A340-500s accommodate 215 passengers over three classes, every passenger pays much more for their seat.

SIA commands a price of S$8,075 (£4,107) for a return Singapore-Los Angeles business ticket. By contrast, Thai’s 113 economy class passengers to Los Angeles are paying 51,160 baht (£1,068). Its 42 premium economy customers each pay 68,765 baht (£1,434), while the 60 taking the angled lie-flat seats in business class pay 133,025 baht (£2,775).

Thai compounded the plane’s tricky economics by offering lots of legroom in the back of the plane – good for the passenger, not so good for Thai’s revenue. Whereas business class comes with 60 inches of legroom, passengers in premium economy receive 42 inches and economy travellers positively luxuriate in 36 inches, more than other carriers provide.

So what’s the future? SIA says it will continue with its New York and Los Angeles services. Thai has been trying to find a buyer for its four-strong fleet of A340-500s, but the offers have been derisory as the planes are unfashionable in these days of costly fuel.

According to Thai, until the planes retire they’ll see service on an ad hoc basis around the region and further afield as substitution for other aircraft. Thai is renowned for switching plane types at short notice and the A340-500s have already popped up in cities as varied as Oslo, Milan, Singapore and Sydney.

So in the final analysis, whether or not nonstop flights linking South East Asia with the US survive depends entirely on the price of oil.

*Routing times vary depending on wind speeds. The first figure is Asia-US, the second is US-Asia.

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