1. A350 spreads its wings
A direct competitor to Boeing’s B787 Dreamliner, the A350 XWB (extra wide body) is a new family of aircraft from Airbus that comes in three versions, the A350-800, -900 and -1000. Quieter and more fuel-efficient, there are currently 777 of them on order. Airbus delivered 15 last year and aims to double that in 2016. Launch customer Qatar Airways now flies the aircraft to Singapore, Frankfurt, Munich, Philadelphia, Adelaide, Boston and New York.
Vietnam Airlines operates the A350 from Hanoi to Paris and Seoul, while Finnair plies it from Helsinki to Shanghai, Beijing, Bangkok and Hong Kong, with Singapore scheduled for later this year. Singapore Airlines has 67 on order itself; seven are of the ultra long-haul variety (see trend 3), and the airline launched A350 services to Amsterdam in May this year.
2. Rise of Chinese airlines
China’s aviation market is booming. In terms of passengers flown, China Southern is the third-most popular airline globally, moving just over 100 million people in 2014 (only Delta and Southwest trumped it). China Eastern carried 66 million in 2014, while Air China expected to have topped 88.5 million in 2015.
Only 5 per cent of Chinese people have passports, but 107 million outbound journeys were made in 2014, and by 2020 that figure is expected to reach 200 million. The volume comes not just from international flights but the huge domestic market, which is served by 20 or so dedicated carriers. In 2014 there were four new arrivals – Air China Inner Mongolia, Qingdao Airlines, Ruili Airlines, Urumqi Air; and in 2015 another four – 9 Air, Guangxi Beibu Gulf Airlines, Jiangxi Air and Colorful Guizhou Airlines. This year we can expect Air Guilin and Yunnan Hongtu Airlines to begin operations.
Aircraft manufacturers anticipate the delivery of more than 300 new planes a year to Chinese airlines over the next 20 years. And, by 2020, China expects to have 60 new airports (it has about 200 at the moment).
3. Ultra long-haul flights
Airlines will be vying to fly the world’s longest and farthest flights over the next couple of years. On March 2, Emirates started a non-stop 17-hour, 15-minute service from Dubai to Auckland, a distance of 14,326 kilometres, becoming the world's longest passenger flight. The airline aims to top this with the launch of a non-stop 17-hour, 35-minute flight between Dubai and Panama City later this year. Next year, Qantas hopes to go one further by flying non-stop between Perth and London (14,469km) using the new B787-9s it has on order. In 2018, Airbus will introduce an ultra long-range version of the A350-900, capable of flying more than 16,000km. Launch customer Singapore Airlines plans to use the aircraft to resurrect its New York route and reclaim the crown for longest flight. Boeing’s B777X, which will come in two versions – the B777-8 (with a range of up to 16,112km) and B777-9 (up to 14,075km) – will be introduced by Emirates in 2020. The Gulf carrier could use the B777-8 from Dubai to Mexico City, Santiago or Peru.
4. Streaming IFE
As many travellers have their own personal screens in the form of tablets and laptops, airlines will one day be able to do away with heavy, expensive in-flight entertainment systems built into seat-backs. Enabling the transition, Virgin Australia set the trend by introducing streaming technology in 2012. Since then, early adopters have included Israel’s El Al, which allows passengers to stream more than 50 movies to their devices via its DreamStream app on select B737s and B767s.
Low-cost Singaporean airline Scoot relaunched its streaming service for the new B787 in February last year, with access for US$11 (free in business class). In September, Virgin America equipped ten A320s with
high-speed wifi for streaming content from Netflix (US$4.99 for short haul, or US$17.99 for long-haul flights).
Jetblue has also installed free high-speed wifi across 80 per cent of its fleet, so customers can watch live sports on seat-backs and Amazon Prime content on their own devices. On wifi-enabled domestic flights with Delta Air Lines, passengers can stream movies and HBO shows at no extra charge. Delta will complete the rollout of wifi on long-haul routes by mid-2016.
5. Free in-flight wifi
Wifi (for a price) has been available on planes for about five years, but getting online at 35,000ft is going to get easier – and cheaper. Along with Jetblue, airlines taking the lead in rolling it out for free include Finnair, which is now installing it across its fleet with completion due for 2018. The first aircraft to feature it, the new A350 XWB, began flying last autumn. It’s free in business class and either US$6 an hour or US$17 for the whole flight in economy.
Air China has offered free wifi for some time (but with limited usability and reliability), while Philippine Airlines is offering 30 minutes’ free wifi on 21 of its aircraft as part of its 75th anniversary celebrations. China Southern also launched a free wifi service on its Guangzhou-Sydney route in May.
Emirates offers the first 10MB of data free, and is rapidly extending the service to its whole fleet. In December, Qatar Airways announced it would give passengers wifi at no extra charge for the first 15 minutes. By 2020, free wifi in the sky will likely be the norm.
6. Private jets take off
According to the Global Business Jet Market report for 2015-19, the private jet market is projected to grow to US$33.8 billion (from US$20.9 billion in 2013) by the end of 2020. While Europe and North America are recovering from the effects of the financial crisis, India and China are leaping ahead – private business aviation in the former is expected to triple in the next five years, while more than 125 jets a year are predicted to be delivered to the latter.
7. Hacks and malware attacks
Cybercrime is rising – experts predict that 2016 will see Apple, in particular, being targeted. (Security company Symantec said malware attacks on Apple’s iOS operating systems more than doubled in 2015.) Travel companies are already affected, with Hyatt and Hilton experiencing breaches to systems in 2015.
Following the Hilton attack, Ryan Wilk, a director at NuData Security, was reported on computer.co.uk as saying: “This credit card breach is one of a spate of similar hacks that have occurred over the last year or so targeting hotels. While we can’t know for sure what hackers’
long-term plans are, it seems credible that they are targeting specific industries that likely have the same exploits in order to maximise their efforts before moving on to the next industry.”
American Airlines was hacked last summer, as was United and travel tech company Sabre. Battling this, the cyber-security market is expected to grow from US$75 billion in 2015 to US$170 billion by 2020.
8. PAYG airport lounges
As airlines make it tougher to qualify for lounge access, demand for pay-as-you-go (PAYG) facilities is increasing. Hong Kong-based Plaza Premium Lounge has four lounges in its home airport, and opened the first independent facility in the UK’s Heathrow T4 last year – for £35 (US$51) you get food, alcohol, wifi and showers. It has also launched a Singapore Changi facility with cooking stations and a massage area, and a co-branded lounge with China Eastern at Shanghai Pudong International’s T2. A lounge in Phnom Penh came in January and another in Taiwan Taoyuan in February, with Rio de Janeiro Galeao International to open by the summer.
Another pay-in lounge to open in Changi Airport is The Haven by Jetquay (launched in 2014); located in the arrival hall of Terminal 3 on level 1, it offers shower and nap facilities, meeting rooms, a business centre and F&B corner. Lounge packages start from S$35 (US$26).
9. Hotel group mergers and buyouts
Hotel chains are joining forces. Last year it was announced that Marriott International would acquire Starwood Hotels and Resorts for US$12.2 billion, a deal that will make it the biggest hotel company on the planet when finalised in the summer, with 30 brands and 5,500 properties.
In September, France’s Accorhotels acquired FHRI (Fairmont, Raffles and Swissotel), which has 155 hotels around the world. As other chains seek to compete, the pressure to merge will increase, and consolidation of the hotel industry will echo airline behaviour over the past decade.
That’s not all the big hotel groups are doing to increase their presence. Hospitality research group MKG Global reported last year that out of 19.5 million hotel rooms in the world, only 7.85 million were part of a chain. As a consequence, almost every large group – from Starwood to Hilton – is working to extend their reach by incorporating independents into their branded collections.
Marriott set the trend with its Autograph Collection in 2010 – it now has more than 90 properties. This was followed by Curio by Hilton in 2014; Starwood’s Tribute Portfolio, launched in April 2015; and Loews Hotels and Resorts’ OE Collection, which debuted earlier this year.
10. Safety first
According to travel management company Carlson Wagonlit’s report Travel Trends, Programme Priorities: A Traveller-Centric 2016, security is a top priority this year, with 80 per cent of travel managers expecting it to have a “high or very high” impact on their programmes. Despite increased global security risks, business travel has to go on, however. Research companies are finding that travel numbers to high-risk destinations like Egypt or Israel are seeing considerable increases year-on-year. International SOS and Control Risks have published the Travel Risk Map 2016 to help organisations better understand the risks in the markets where they operate and travel (visit riskmap.controlrisks.com for in-depth analysis).
11. Social currency exchange
A new app called We Swap heralds the dawn of “social foreign exchange”, where travellers can swap currency between them, digitally. This peer-to-peer platform is supported by Mastercard, so it’s secure, and fees are between 1 per cent and 1.4 per cent, depending on how quickly you do the transaction. You can store up to 16 currencies, and money is withdrawn via a prepaid card that is posted to you.
London-based SwaappEX offers a similar middleman-free service, with geolocation software built in so you can easily meet up with the person you are swapping your leftover Thai baht with.
12. Saving the planet
Following the Paris Climate Conference in December 2015, there will be renewed pressure on travel companies to take responsibility for their environmental practices. Hilton Worldwide has become the first global hotel company to serve MSC-certified sustainable cod in Europe, and this summer launches its new “responsible” hotel brand, Canopy, in Reykjavik, Iceland.
December saw an agreement between the Airport Carbon Accreditation scheme (promoting carbon neutrality) and the UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change). So far, 137 airports are accredited as part of the programme, representing 31 per cent of global air passenger traffic. In January it was announced that new green tech developed by NASA over the past six years would help commercial airlines to save US$250 billion – as well as reduce pollution by 75 per cent.
