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Thank you John Harper fopr your detailed thoughts. As you say, CX is linked to Air China, which is in star. If CX were to leave, this would then enable Hainan and Hong Kong Airlines to join oneworld.
In North Africa as you say RAM is more likely to join Skyteam. Also IB is in theory targeting these countries that would add to the (if not already) oneworld network. I cannot see what Tunisair would add at all.
In West Africa Arik is the strongest player.
Over to Qantas, as you say, they may well leave. They currently hate Emirates, but as they say, if you cannot beat them join them!
I can see EK strengthening codeshare arrangements but I can’t see them going into an alliance. For a start they would be too dominant in any alliance they might join and I don’t believe their strategy lends itself to alliances, for many reasons.
I do not think anyone can see Emirates joing an alliance, but what seems to be the thinking here and on other discussions, is that Qantas may leave oneworld to joining Emirates in a partnership.
Worth bearing in mind that Etihad now co-operate in a big way with Virgin Australia.