Eurostar will have a London-Amsterdam monopoly when through services start in December 2016.

It had been thought that rival Deutsche Bahn (DB) would compete but the German firm has put its plans on hold (see news, February 19).

Why hasn’t Eurostar served Amsterdam before? Its existing trains, which are more than 20 years old, were not designed for the different Dutch power and signalling systems.

Initially, the plan is to operate twice daily with new 900-seat Siemens e320 trains. When in service, these technologically advanced trains will run via Brussels and cover London-Amsterdam in roughly four hours, stopping en route at Antwerp, Rotterdam and Schiphol airport.

Eurostar chose Amsterdam because it has the potential to be its third-busiest destination after Paris and Brussels. Currently, passengers seeking the fastest timings take Eurostar to the Belgian capital and continue by Thalys high-speed service. Although Thalys has started operating to Amsterdam from Lille Europe, details have yet to be posted on Eurostar’s system.

Changing trains in Brussels gives a best overall journey time of under five hours. The problem is price – using Thalys pushes up the cost, making the service uncompetitive for short-notice bookings.

For example, when Business Traveller checked prices on a Wednesday morning in March, a return booking for the following Monday morning, returning late on a Tuesday afternoon, cost between £300 and £400 – and that was just for a semi-flexible Standard class ticket.

If a traveller were to upgrade to first class, the fare ranged between £300 and £600 depending on the degree of flexibility required and whether one required a Standard Premier or Business Premier seat.

Eurostar won’t reveal timings yet, but logically one would expect there to be early morning and late afternoon services in both directions.

A first service from London St Pancras leaving at 0700 would give a noon arrival in Amsterdam. If the service were to return at 1700, it would arrive back in London at 2000.

The service from Amsterdam will prove convenient because of the one-hour time difference. A 0700 departure would deposit Dutch business people in central London soon after 1000, while a 1700 departure from London would arrive back in Amsterdam at about 2200.

But Eurostar has a tough job. About three million people a year travel between the two cities, with the vast majority taking the “high road”. Not only is the plane often cheaper but the flight also takes a fraction of the time and there is a wide choice of UK departure points. In the London area alone, you can fly to Amsterdam from Heathrow, Gatwick, City, Luton and Stansted.

Will Eurostar appeal to business people? Reader feedback suggests it would attract those wanting a change from flying or heading for any of the intermediate stops in Belgium and the Netherlands. In the case of Amsterdam – the longest journey – timings don’t suit a productive day trip, but they appeal to those staying longer.

Schiphol makes an interesting destination because it allows passengers to avoid APD (air passenger duty) provided they purchase a euro-priced ticket starting from Amsterdam. But savings will vary and may not be worthwhile depending on route and tariff type.

The big advantage of Eurostar’s through-train service is that with more capacity and no need to split revenue with Thalys, fares will become more competitive.

But there are two clouds on the horizon. First, the Siemens e320 trains have to be technically certified and tests remain ongoing.

Second, Eurostar will be up against the strict requirements of the UK Border Agency (UKBA). That’s not a problem departing London because the screening takes place beforehand, but it does pose a problem on the return. As previously reported in this column, the UKBA insists that all UK-bound rail passengers complete formalities, including baggage screening, before they reach the Tunnel.

If space cannot be found at the above-named stations (Brussels Midi excepted) then chances are passengers will have to disembark at Lille Europe for UKBA procedures, extending the London service’s journey time. Eurostar allowed 80 minutes extra for its seasonal Lyon-London service last year.

Perhaps it is no coincidence that transit facilities at Lille Europe are now being enlarged to handle more passengers. Maybe the rail firms are covering themselves should current UKBA procedures stay in place.