Binman62 - 15/02/2012 10:18 GMT
The Internet is awash with rumours about the future of Qantas and it seems there may be some significant announcements on Thursday along with its results.
Rumours on the Internet suggest that JFK and FRA may be be pulled from the network with JNB also in the firing line. Some crew sites have pointed to a sudden rush of crew managers positioning to various locations on the existing network to conduct crew briefings following the release of results.
My money is on JNB being pulled as the JSA with South African has just been cancelled. FRA must also be in doubt as I simply cannot see how there clapped out 747 with slide bed can possible compete with LH product or SQ A380 for that matter.
LHR moves to just 2 flights a day from March 25th both on A380 which bizarrely sit in LHR for over 12 hours doing nothing. This is hardly sweating an asset and one must wonder what the future is for LHR on the QF network.....is it in line to be dropped with either BA taking up the slack to SIN or Jetstar taking over?
One poster has pointed to the incredible disparity on loads between LHR and BKK on BA and QF. Since the CEOs temper tantrum and the unforgivable grounding last year, loads have plummeted. I suspect this is more to do with them coming off the route from March more than a desertion of passengers though I for one would find it difficult to trust QF again under the current management regime.
The results will be telling as clearly if they are good they will be used to justify the disruption and enourmous inconvenience that was caused to those affected. (something that would no trade union has ever been able to do) If they are bad then the world econommy will be the excuse and they will be used to justify the further shrinking of the airline.
It is quite incredible that an airline with such a history and based in one of the worlds strongest economy's could find itself in this position at all today.
Bucksnet - 15/02/2012 10:28 GMT
JFK needs to go. Terminate at LAX and codeshare with AA.
BA should end flights to SYD, and Qantas should end flights to LHR. Meet in the middle - offer connections though several Asian airports. A big reduction in costs for both airlines, and more choice for passengers.
LeTigre - 15/02/2012 10:52 GMT
What an intriguing thread!
I think QF and BA would not end flights to LHR and SYD so quickly just after the JSA started. But they definitely need to improve profitability. However, if SIA are finding profitability on long-haul full service a challenge, Qantas don't stand a chance.
Mind you, Virgin Australia is not looking all too good, despite the re-branding I still think that $1bn in debt is a bit too high for a relatively small airline.
JordanD - 15/02/2012 10:58 GMT
Various rumours suggest FRA is going to go, replaced by BER, so it can plug into the Air Berlin network out of there, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Germany go all together.
Again, JFK looks likely to be dropped - there are multiple LAX-JFK frequencies each day, and with QF unable to uplift extra passengers in LAX, it is a prestige service to JFK, rather than an operational one.
As for what happens on the Kangaroo Route - well that's anyone's guess.
Bucksnet - 15/02/2012 10:59 GMT
Hengli, the JSA has been going for years.
LeTigre - 15/02/2012 11:05 GMT
Bucksnet, what I mean is the new phase of the JSA that decreases one airline flights for the whole journey and splits it up into different airlines.
Bucksnet - 15/02/2012 11:10 GMT
Yes, Qantas are cutting 2 flights to LHR but still serving it. Far better and cheaper for them to drop it altogether. Having 2 A380s sitting on the ground for over 12 hours each is a waste. 2 BA aircraft also sit idle most of the day in SYD.
Re-arranged schedules would enable major cost savings, and allow BA and QF to better compete with the mid-east carriers.
Hippocampus - 15/02/2012 13:29 GMT
The BA/Qantas JSA was reviewed only very recently, so whilst further changes can't be ruled out, I think the route network will stay as it is in the short term. Codesharing aside, Qantas dropping London would be very symbolic.
Only one QF A380 sits on the ground all day I think, the other returns to SYD at about midday. I'm not sure why they don't operate the return to MEL in the same time frame. Trying to get on SQ or TG at about midday for arrival in Aus the following evening is often quite difficult and the loads are often greater than the evening flights. Similarly, I'm not sure why BA don't try to return from SYD in the early morning arriving in LHR on the evening of the same day. ET and EY offer the possiblity of that journey and again, they are popular.
Hippocampus - 15/02/2012 15:49 GMT
The lunchtime departure to SYD is being dropped. All departures will be in the evening, which are more popular with business travellers who can depart after a full day in London.
The late night departure from SIN is also more popular with business travellers and allows same day connections on arrival at LHR in the morning.
rferguson - 15/02/2012 16:07 GMT
There were some cost cutting measures announced a while back for the SYD - FRA route. Namely that the low cost LHR crew base would take over operating the SIN-FRA-SIN sectors from the Australian based crew. So the new contract LHR based crew would operate a LHR-SIN-FRA-SIN-LHR pattern. This was due to start in April.
Will be a shame if QF don't give it a go before cutting the route altogether.
As a business traveller, I find the lunchtime departure more meets my needs! I also like the early morning departure from SYD for the same reasons.
BeckyBoop - 15/02/2012 16:20 GMT
Will this include the weekend day flights too, because i would of thought that would be popular for holiday makers xx
LondonCity - 15/02/2012 16:43 GMT
Jordan D writes: "various rumours suggest FRA is going to go, to be replaced by BER." That's a non starter. QF may well drop FRA but BER is not a substitute because there's no profitable business in the German capital. SQ has tried Berlin Schonefeld (which is the site of the new BER) in the past and failed.
LPPSKrisflyer asks "I'm not sure why BA don't return from SYD in the early morning arriving in LHR on the evening of the same day ?"
It sounds logical but there are three problems:
1. The LHR curfew would not be met were BA's departure ex-SYD to be delayed for any reason. A "reason" could be a late departure from LHR (caused by bad weather) to delay the arrival in SYD. Or the possibility of a late arrival into SYD caused by bad winter weather. (The airport is closed by early morning fog on a number of occasions during the winter months).
2. An earlier flight from SYD would mean a daytime flight from SIN to LHR and as other readers have pointed out, travellers on business prefer overnight flights between SE Asia and Europe.
3. Onward connections at LHR. A lot of leisure and VFR passengers travel the kangaroo route and quite a number of these travellers are not based in the London area. So when the plane reaches LHR many must proceed further afield within the UK or to mainland Europe/Scandinavia by plane, train, bus etc. An evening arrival, say at 2100 hrs, provides limited connection possibilities.
Bucksnet - 15/02/2012 16:58 GMT
If BA flew all the flights from LHR-SIN and Qantas flew all the flights from SIN-Australia, then there would be a choice of flights at different times to suit different people. Connections could also be made through BKK, HKG, PVG, PEK and NRT as well, so offering multiple choices at least to MEL and SYD, plus improving the competitive edge over the mid-east carriers.
When travelling to SE Asia, I prefer nights flights in both directions like most business travellers. However, if going to Australia I would prefer to land in the evening as it's such a long flight, and the same for the return to London.
LondonCity - 15/02/2012 17:09 GMT
One thing that has been forgotten in the discussion is that of Virgin Atlantic.
It continues to fly daily from LHR to SYD via HKG with A340-600. We hear very little about this service.
Is this route profitable, I wonder ? Or is it just a vanity project ? Or if VS can make it work, why cannot BA ?
If I can't do the EY/EK flights from SYD during the day, I tend to fly to SIN leaving AUS at around midnight. I stay awake on that flight. On arrival in SIN I have a shower and a good breakfast and then board the flight to LHR and I sleep for most of the journey and wake for lunch at around 1.00pm UK time. I'm usually home by 16.30, I go to bed at a normal time and am fit for a full day at work the next day. If I do overnight, I fail pretty quickly after spending what is effectively a 24 hour night on the journey.
Each to their own! I just wish SQ would replace the 77W on the first flight to LHR with the A380 so there were suites rather than the poor standard F.
Binman62 - 15/02/2012 17:18 GMT
QF has already clearly stated that they will not move to BER.
JFK FRA were both suggested last year for the chop and then LHR took the hit.
I have never bought the idea that business people want night flights especially to Asia and in any event SQ CX and others have been running dayTime flights for years.
FRA and JFK may be chopped but my money is on South Africa.
From the Aussie press they are also expecting significant fall in profits.
Hippocampus - 15/02/2012 17:41 GMT
Do also bear in mind that from a yield perspective airlines are more interested in selling LHR-SIN and SIN-SYD segments than LHR-SYD.
The day flight from LHR departs SIN for SYD early in the morning and, as already stated, business travellers prefer overnight flights.
Hippocampus: Business travellers IME prefer a choice of flights. I travel LHR - AUS every month and I certainly don't prefer overnight flights and I'm far from the only one.
