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Looking back at recent events in the industry in Europe:
- BA (actually IAG) bought BMI
- Air Berlin is joining OW
So LH is not covering UK anymore while OW has now a heavy presence in Germany. And a link with Etihad (largest Air Berlin shareholder).
I am not a fan of WW, but it looks like he managed it well. Thoughts?
It is component parts of OW that look exceedingly flakey.
By far the biggest partner of OW, American Airlines, recently entered chapter 11. The vultures, who already have well established alliances, are widely reported as circling. Thirteen thousand lay-offs, 16% of workforce, in progress.
- Malev - a good airline but huge financial problems, and highly unlikely to survive 2012.
- Qantas govt. involved in ongoing employee disputes.
- Iberia ongoing pilot disputes and will be a constant drain on BA/IAG for many years as Spain struggles to recover.
- Kingfisher is "cash strapped and in a critical condition".
- Mexicana bankrupt.
As to BA , my views are well known, they still have huge employee relation problems due to appalling execution of their necessary change strategy. Walsh continues to demonstrate his poor business acumen, a few months ago complaining and bleated on about UK Gov for lack of LHR capacity preventing him opening lucrative (trade enhancing) routes into China yet when he had the chance having purchased slots and then 56 BMI slot pairs, not a peep about China - rather a disingenuous chappy.
Avios hasn't been that well received with many complaints of previously "free" flights now having not insignificant surcharges.
As the Forbes columnist points out, with the AA et al shrinking, there will be fewer seats available for "points" clients and less reciprocity between the partners. Air Berlin brings little for the frquent flyer.
So overall Swiss, I am of a contrary opinion. Thanks for asking though.
Agree that WW has managed it quite well.
Only set back is that BA could not convice LX to sign a deal. If I recall, BA did get som slots at LHR from LX but it would have been much better for BA and OW if LX had been a OW airline than a *A airline as it is now.
Maybe this was before WW arrived at BA?
Not sure on how Air Berlin will fit with BA though. They don't feed to LHR and I doubt long haul passegers originating in Germany will choose to transfer twice (for example at TXL/BER and LHR) to travel BA.
I think * is a stronger alliance than OW at present.
However, things can change quickly in the airline sector.
And the information above about Qantas is out of date; the disputes have been settled, there is no more industrial action, all QF flights are operating as normal.
And as for Aer Lingus - it hasn't been a member of oneworld for about 2 years or more!
Andy already correctly made the point about EI, therefore edited.
As to the assertion that Qantas "disputes have been settled", the Aussie Press are reporting differently.
http://theconversation.edu.au/the-qantas-disputes-one-agreement-made-two-to-go-4863
"But at this stage similar agreements between Qantas and the other two unions do not appear probable. Hence FWA is scheduled to arbitrate their disputes in 2012 in March (TWU) and June (AIPA)."
http://www.twu.com.au/Home/Campaigns/-Home-Campaigns-Qantas/Qantas_27_1_12/
The Qantas pilots would beg to differ also
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/qantas-pilots-submit-pay-offer/story-e6frfku0-1226245778156
"The union is also continuing its challenge to Fair Work Australia's decision to ban Qantas pilots from taking industrial action."
Is this another one Phelan where you’ll relish getting front row seats if it is a train wreck, as before?
Thought I do a list:P
Oneworld
Full members:
American Airlines
British Airways
Cathay Pacific
Finnair
Iberia
Japan Airlines
LAN (might leave or TAM will join with them)
Qantas
Royal Jordanian
S7 Airlines
Members elect:
airberlin
Kingfisher Airlines
Malaysia Airlines
Possible future members:
Aer Lingus
Etihad Airways
and more
Etihad Airways might be high likey to join Oneworld if airberlin do.
Let's put dispute on the side since any airline can face this.
AA = Delta = ... I don't think the fact AA is chapter 11 does really matter.
Malev is dead. Not sure it is a big loss for OW though...
Kingfisher is a question mark.
Now looking mostly at Europe, OW seems stronger now. Worldwide, *A is probably still better of.
Europe landscape (main airlines only):
*A: LH, LX, SK, OS, SN
OW: BA, IB, AB, AY
ST: AF, KL, AY, SU
TO me the key point is does TAM go back to OW (Used to be partner of AA) or does LAN move to *A? LAN is probably the senior partner but TAM is the better airline, so who knows. The South America coverage,as with China and Asia will be far more key for growth going forward than strength in Europe, I believe.
The EU is probing Star and Sky team and might lead up to the breack up of star.
Regarding Oneworld, Aer Lingus has ruled out joining any alliance.
Competition authorities have ruled that LATAM has to join one of the alliances and it can't be in the same alliance as Avianca-Taca and Copa, which is a member of Star Alliance. So Oneworld membership for LATAM seems likely.
TAP is (at some point) due to be privatised. IAG has expressed an interest. If it acquires it it will join Oneworld (though obviously there may be competition issues if LATAM joins Oneworld). Lufthansa is likely to be in no mood to buy more airlines having sold bmi at a huge loss, shut down Lufthansa Italia and is having to restructure Austrian and SN Brussels. Air France KLM will not be in the running as it as a huge debt burden of 6.5 billion Euros to address.
JAL has also been through a restructuring and has now posted a healthy set of results.
If you look at all three alliances you can point to positive and negative trends. 2012 certainly seems to be a year of a big shakeout in aviation.
From a European standpoint Star has what may be deemed to be the national flag carrier from 9 countries -
Germany; Slovenia; Greece; Austria; Croatia; Poland; Switzerland; Portugal; and Turkey.
Plus other domestic carriers from
Belgium; Scandinavia (Denmark, Norway, Sweden)
Whereas OW has national flag carriers from 3-4 countries
UK; Spain; Finland with possibly Portugal
Maybe Ireland and an Italian regional later.
Other - Germany
OW makes sense if flying from UK (edit if flying from London), however a frequent flyer from across Europe generally would have a far better service/return from *, especially when it came to the number destinations and diversity where one could collect/use points/miles.
Am unsure Swissdiver as to the basis or rationale used that lends the view OW as being stronger even in Europe.
Even the addition of Air Berlin still leaves OW trailing in Europe and Worldwide when compared with *, IMHO.
Hippocampus, you mention TAP competition issues if LATAM joins 1W. Surely the competition issues of LAN and Iberia were much greater and that went through. TAP is not that significant from a total Latin America perspective.
Everyone says BA has lots of money and has been lookign at acquisitions, does anyone think BA may be involved in resurrecting Malev in a new form. WOuld not be popular with Luftahnsa as Hungary is their backyard.
I think the competition issues where to due to the size of Star on main land EU.
Tete - If you look at exEU on BA.com a number of journeys are routed via AA or through MAD and IB, so your assumption that OW is not for EU is not quite correct.
Tete - you write "OW makes sense if flying from the UK"
I think it better you say "OW makes sense if flying from London" as BA no longer has a single international flight from any airport in the UK regions.
In fact, BA only serves London (for international connections) from a limited number of domestic points. There are more options to fly international from the regions with Star or Skyteam or with the non-alligned Gulf carriers.
Yes LondonCity, Transtraxman - I stand corrected, a highly pertinent observation.
Wiki Stats
.....................................OW.. Star.... Skyteam
Destination Airports ...... 750... 1,290.... 926
Destination Countries.... 150..... 189..... 173
Annual Pax approx ....... 350m. 607.5m.. 474m
Fleet............................... n/a.. 4,070...3,451
Other things being equal, it is fair assume the larger the alliance/partnership the greater the value to its travelling members, especially frequent ones. Star has 72% more destination airports in 26% more countries than OW.
The consequence to OW if AA is lost will be very serious though it may precipitate a whole raft of changes in allegiance within the alliance/partnership world. DoS is right to note, things can change quickly in the airline sector.
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