MarkCymru - 10/02/2012 12:57 GMT
Stay in touch with your travel agent. Apparently Malev went from offering 0% commission to UK travel agents (as most airlines do) to 5% a few weeks before its bankruptcy and then to 13% in the days before it finally failed. This week, Kingfisher (the Indian carrier which wanted to become a Oneworld stablemate with Malev) has gone from under 3% to 7% -- it's short of cash but there is no sign that it is failing. It probably just wants to maximise cashflow but it's worth watching
MarkCymru - 20/02/2012 21:09 GMT
Sad to say, it looks as if Kingfisher is in its last few hours.
http://bit.ly/y6Iiid
VintageKrug - 20/02/2012 21:16 GMT
Indeed. I wonder which one is next on the block?
Any suggestions?
VintageKrug - 20/02/2012 21:20 GMT
The sensible thing would be for Virgin to buy it...if they had any cashola
VintageKrug - 20/02/2012 21:37 GMT
Hmm. But I think that would have government protection, n'est ce pas?
I can't believe the Sovereign funds would sit by and watch them fail....though I wouldn't miss their MD80s.
Hippocampus - 20/02/2012 21:45 GMT
I would suggest that it might be unwise to speculate as to precisely which carriers may fail - as this could result in action by any named carriers against this site.
However, there is no doubt that 2012 is proving to be a year of a major shakeout of the industry with a number of carriers having already failed and a number of others going through a major restructuring. Air France KLM is likely to go through a significant overhaul later this year. Lufthansa is also to undergo a restructuring to move itself from independent business units to an IAG-type structure.
VintageKrug - 20/02/2012 21:47 GMT
There does seem to be so much opportunity in Africa and Asia; it's a shame the European carriers aren't getting on the bandwagon, preferring much more predictable courses.
MarkCymru - 20/02/2012 22:38 GMT
Especially because there are excellent low-cost carriers which are making money in these markets. For example, I took Indigo last week from Delhi to Mumbai. It was fast, efficient and on time. With extra legroom, it cost under £100 and Indigo makes money. Jetstar from Singapore to Manila was excellent, cheap and good value (rather unlike its part-owner, Qantas). I think it's roughly the same story with Comair's Kulula in South Africa.
Kalula is doing very well in SA. I don't use them often preferring SAA's more spacious offering and Star Alliance benefits, but when I do they are always completely full. Never yet seen an empty sea.
They are, btw, owned by BA through Comair.
BeckyBoop - 21/02/2012 09:45 GMT
how come the indian ones are going bust quickly i thought india has a strong economy? xx
Senator - 21/02/2012 09:55 GMT
I don't think Scandinavian will be the next. Despite the dreadful impact of Spanair, the cash situation is pretty good and they made an underlying profit for 2011 (operationally). They have received another 1b SEK relief from employees, and is downsizing their administration.
I do however, think that there is now a clear path from at least two of three governments to sell of their stake assuming they can find a buyer. These looks like they will not be floated. As per an old perverse rule called "3/2/2" where everything was:
3/7 Swedish
2/7 Danish
2/7 Norwegian
the 51% owned by the governments are split using the same mechanism.
I think the SAS Group will survive, but they may leave some subsidiaries behind; Blue 1 and Air Baltic.
RoadKing - 21/02/2012 11:09 GMT
I agree with Senator that SAS at heart does good and have good forecast.
However, should there be a strain on cash again, I disagree that the governments will take action. At least in Norway there is a consensus that they have fed SAS enough.
As for sale? Who will by an airline with multiple of unions and a heavy load of gold-rimmed retirement plans, knowing that this airline's home market is also the home market of one of the fastes growing low cost airlines?
It is a pity, because I have many nice memories from flying with SAS and I still like them.
Danwolf - 21/02/2012 11:31 GMT
BeckyBoop - Jet & Kingfisher are (broadly) struggling due to cashflow issues & high levels of debt in the companies. My understanding is that both are struggling to pay staff, airport fees, taxes etc and this fear (and reduced levels of flights operating with Kingfisher, for example) is lowering the level of bookings. I have been pricing some flights to asia and have noticed that a lot of biz fares with Kingfisher & Jet are quite cheap at the moment...caveat emptor!!
Danwolf - you should take advantage of the low fares while you can - just make sure you have good travel insurance!
You will really enjoy either airline - great seats, great service. Kingfisher First (which is really business class) is superb - just make sure you get one of the centre row seats (that way you have your own aisle access, and no-one wants to climb over you)
The State Bank of India is apparently loaning Kingfisher 16.5 bn Rupees.
LondonCity - 23/02/2012 23:21 GMT
"great seats, great service" ? I just wonder if Kingfisher staff morale has suffered, bearing in mind that they haven't been paid for two months.
According to this report, half of the Kingfisher fleet is now grounded. The Indian aviation authorities are said to be checking Kingfisher's fleet of planes every day "to ensure operational safety ."
http://www.livemint.com/2012/02/23230025/Kingfisher-aircraft-being-chec.html?atype=tp
