As it is all quiet on the regulatory front, and while bmi bleeds to death, I thought it timely to look at what might happen after the take over,assuming the 56 slot pairs at LHR are not materially denuded by the regulators.

Some assumptions - nothing can happen before winter 2012 schedules and probably not too much before summer 2013. This fits nicely into BA's post Olympics planning and the arrival of new 787's + 380's in winter 2012. They had planned to retire some capacity after the Olympic fest but presumably can hold on to some capacity on their long haul 767 and 747 fleets to use those newly liberated slots.
While Lufthansa stripped away some routes to its group that it wanted eg Berlin, Zurich and Brussels and abandoned others eg Paris, Amsterdam and Glasgow there remains a rump of routes as less than half the slots overlap with BA's existing routes

The bmi minibus 319/320 fleet of bmi is very common with BA's unlike Iberia who have a different engine supplier. So much as when T5 opened there should be an opportunity to shorten turnarounds or tighten timeatbles(both BA and bmi)on around 50 slots a day and at 10 minutes a time thats almost a whole extra plane a day
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The A332 operation has little obvious overlap excempt in Saudi, and could be better served by BA's 777, while Amritsar via Almaty looks odd (no local traffic rights) and could be served direct - BA is an airline of choice for the Indian business market, unless Kingfisher survives and wants it for itself, frankly bmi is unknown in India bar its brief excursion into Mumbai for a year or so 3 times a week in c2006. Iberia are taking 8 new 333's soon so there may be a case to transfer the 332's if the leases cannot be given back.

The seven ex BMed 320/321 aircraft and assocaited routes look broadly safe and unique,BA declined to bid back in 2008 when bmi paid too much for BMed - given that BA handled the bookings, BA deserve credit for not over paying. Integration again brings an economy of scale that bmi/Star via LHR could not offer.

Where BA and bmi overlap eg Aberdeen,Edinburgh and Manchester there is an obvious chance to put on larger aircraft and reduce combined frequency, liberating perhaps 4, 3 and 2 daily slots respectively.Belfast and Dublin may remain unchanged if they are viewd as viable/feeds.

Otherwise there is a rag bag of random routes - Agadir 3pw each -rationalise or go daily.Basel 3 daily each - rationalise or will some go to Swiss?Nice,Tripoli and Vienna, again a case for tidying and gaining perhaps 1 slot from each route every day..Bergen,Stavanger,and Marakesh, all can stand or fall, or be rationalised with or without Gatwick where BA fly to the latter from.

Which leaves Cairo and Moscow where bmi's 321 offer looks a little uncompetitive against BA's long haul equipment. Room to double daily to Cairo with a 777 and a 4th service to Moscow?
All in all perhaps a net 15 slot pairs to be gained..............

And then where to use them?

Plenty of suggestion on this forum in the past- Fort Laudedale,Caribean, Lima,Goa,Columbo,Phuket,Seoul,Manila and those cities in China that are close to impoosible for the average westerner to pronounce etc. Personaly I would add New Orleans and Memphis 3 times a week each from Gatwick by a 767 liberated by tthe incoming new fleet.

Opportunity of a business lifetime, YES! Let us hope that the planners and development guys at IAG are working overtime to get this show on the road soon, we need the new routes and BA will have the capacity after the Olympics to capitalise on it. Let discussion commece.

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Do you think that BA will keep Amman given that it already have a code-share flight with their oneworld partner?

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This year and next will see some big changes to the BA shorthaul product. Iberia express has been conceived as a low-cost feeder service into the hubs at MAD and BCN, from where all the full-service medium and long haul flights depart.

The acquisition of bmi might just allow BA to introduce a similar product to LHR and LGW. There is simply very little demand for a premium short haul service given the current economic climate. IMHO we will see, within a couple of years, some kind of 'BA express' emerge as the new short haul standard product, reducing costs in an area of the business that has never turned any real profits.

This low cost unit would feed passengers onto full-service (and generally profitable) long haul routes. Whether the enlarged airline could fit all the services under one roof at T5 is another problem that would need resolving.

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Interesting thread.

In terms of integration and changes after completion I would speculate as follows:

Some of the most unprofitable/slot sitting bmi rotations will be eliminated quickly(ie those operated with bmi regional aircraft) as well as those that duplicate unnecessarily the current BA network.

These are likely to be replaced by rotations on existing BA short haul routes (AMS etc) to keep slots utilised. There may also be some "quick wins" in reallocating bmi slots to BA in order to open up new connection opportunities between short haul and long haul. Some slots may also be leased to Oneworld partners in the short/medium term.

In terms of slots that are to remain utilised by short haul rotations I think there will be a lot of pressure to use much of these by improving utilisation of the existing BA short haul fleet. Although scope to do this at LHR is limited there may be changes to working practices (which are not likely to be universally popular) to improve short haul utilisation. The majority of bmi's fleet is leased and I expect IAG will want to return as many of these aircraft to their lessors as soon as possible,

Long haul growth will come, but not as quickly as some seem to expect. Subject to economic conditions, I think there will be some new routes to North America, South America (Santiago) and China (subject to support from a local partner) and South East Asia (again with support from onward connections by a local partner).

Regarding "BA Express", this is a possibility and the decision rests with IAG. However, soundings are that BA is working to ensure that bmi is integrated into BA which means that "BA Express" is unlikely in the medium term.

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There have been other discussions about new BA routes, but with the BMI purchase, new economic climate and other issues this is worthy new thread.

Re BMI A330 -200s which go to Saudi, Freetown & Almaty/Amritsar, if the leasing rates are not so unreasonable they could go to IB. IB I feel have 333/340s which are quite large and maybe not ideal for new or thinner routes. IB have missed having a 767 size plane to ply these routes, so a 332 might be ideal for them.

On the longer BMI routes - Freetown, Addis Ababa, these could easily be justified to keep on, using BA 767s. Freetown could be served in conjunction with Monrovia, which has a good economy, and Addis Ababa could be extended to maybe Kigali or Zanzibar.

About the BMI A320/A321 used on their mid-haul routes, these aircraft are, as mentioned, very similar to BA's and so should fit in nicely, and I reckon their seating would be a good product for BA to use on their longer European routes for their Club Europe, like Athens, Larnaca, Istanbul etc

There have been many comments on other posts about the current BA CE cabin on the longer routes!

With the economy as it is (not great), I wonder if there is enough demand for some of the leisure routes suggested, but BA Holidays would know this. I imagine with the crazy taxes for flying long haul, that this has impacted demand for caribbean flights etc

So maybe they should focus on business destinations,and countries where their tourists want to come to UK.

I do like the idea of Memphis & New Orleans on LGW based 767s. Maybe Fort Lauderdale would work well with this aircraft.

South America I have mentioned this on other posts - Bogola (now with Lan feed), Lima, also a Lan hub (Air France are pulling out, but they had no local feed), Santiago, Brasilia & Belo Horizonte.

Having BA do these routes may be ideal because IB has a pretty awful reputation and scares a few clients away from IAG.

I believe BA has enough capacity to start these new routes without waiting for 380s and 787s, as 773s come in, short haul 767s are refurbished to long haul etc.

In Africa Libreville is underserved, and could be done as a triangle with Douala. Harare may come back soon, pending on stability there, but this could be done, at least initially, with Lusaka. The Zambian economy is moving well, and KLM and Emirates also starting up there.

Asia

Guangzhou may be tough, as it is a Skyteam hub, but Taipei is happening, and then Vietnam, Phuket, Denpasar, and maybe above all of these in priority, Jakarta.

Many contacts I know there cannot believe there are no direct flights to London, and are peeved at having to change planes all the time.

Going back to lostsomewhere, Amman is probably sufficiently served with RK 330s (and BA codeshare), releasing a slot for other routes.

interesting times, I really wonder if BA has a plan yet!

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Lots of talk about all the new destinations BA could start with the bmi slots BUT it already has spare slots at Heathrow..... which have been used to transfer various short haul flights from Gatwick not start new long haul flights..... it already has spare aircraft (747s laid up) so if it really wanted to serve some of these destinations it could have done so - perhaps not with the 747s but these could free up aircraft on other routes. Seoul, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Taipei are all destinations that have been tried and failed. While the market changes and there are perhaps unheard of places in China there are a lot of slots to use up.

At the moment bmi 18 daily flights to Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Manchester which at a minimum (not least because of the tiny regional aircraft used on some flights) are perhaps likely to be dropped fairly soon. other routes are duplicated, eg nice, basel and moscow, so will go (if basel has no already gone to swiss) and clearly there is a need to cut loss making activity but while i'm sure ba has a plan before spending so much shareholders money, its not one that amateur web watchers can easily work out

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terminal, You are absolutely right and I think anyone expecting a rapid long haul expansion after completion is likely to be disappointed.

However, I strongly suspect that a lot of planning has gone into how bmi's slots could be utilised. A lot of time is spent analysing how slots are used by all airlines at LHR hence why I think in the short term a lot of activity will be focused on optimising the current network to improve/open up connection opportunities.

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Well I had my flight with BMI yesterday and was speaking to Cabin Crew and BMI Lounge Staff at LHR who informed me that no contracts regarding the purchase have been signed yet they had been informed that that the summer's flight schedules will be operating as they are. Very interesting indeed.

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KJ, I believe that IAG and LH signed an agreement in principle, as it were a contract to make a contract, subject to the results of due diligence, regulatory approach, et.c

So I don't read too much into this, I think IAG indicated the sale would conclude in Q1 (IIRC) and that means another two months may pass if they hit the schedule.

In the meantime, the employees of bmi have to carry on as normal, as does the business; I have great sympathy for the employees in this situation, must be worrying for them.

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The contracts may be a slight sticking point if the plan is to have BA subsume BMI as it did to British Cal/Cal Air, Dan Air etc.

When these take-overs occurred, staff were put onto BA contracts which were similar or better than their existing, with seniority transferred also. However with the advent of MF, this may not now be the case.

For many years prior to MF being established, BA had already been constantly adjusting down the package value to new recruits bringing it closer and closer to the market norm.

During the 2010-2011 IA, the press and BA were deliberately mis-leading to make the point about CC being overpaid. The old 20+ year service crew package being frequently cited (who were recruited when higher levels of pay for CC were the norm), as opposed to a fairer comparison with BA's present day recruiting pay package.

Prior to MF, the BA recruiting pay at the time was in fact only marginally better than the subsequent MF recruiting pay. It was a total myth to claim MF saved significant amounts with respect to pay.

It will be interesting to see how long serving BMI crew are treated or integrated if at all. Though sadly BA/IAG are more likely to be of the view that the value lies in the LHR slots and not in the professional people asset.

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Sorry Tete, wrong again. MF is saving £10's of millions through less pay and more efficient scheduling. In fact legacy fleet WW crew are paid more than the CAA figures. I've seen payslips, the average WW crew because of the way they are taxed is taking home the equivalent of 35k per year for a 'normal' person.

The savings from MF are HUGE.

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Regarding BD and IAG, an agreement in principle was reached in November 2011. A binding agreement for purchase was subsequently agreed in December 2011.

And yes, Mixed Fleet is delivering millions in savings in salary costs, more efficient scheduling and sweeping away the restrictive practices of EuroFleet/Worldwide.

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Why would BA fly to New Orleans and Memphis? There is not enough traffic to these two destinations.

BA needs to concentrate on more important routes in North America for e.g Detroit, Minneapolis - St Paul, Charlotte, Fort Lauderdale.

It amazes me that we do not fly to some of the top destinations where all the other major carriers fly to and where the business is.

BA is behind compared to carriers like Lufthansa and Air France. BA claims to be the only european airline to fly to more destinations in the Caribbean but yet the connections within europe at their Gatwick hub is very weak - No direct flights from Gatwick to Paris, Brussels, Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich, Madrid, Stockholm, etc.

There is also a need for another longhaul aircraft type at the Gatwick hub besides the 777 - for e.g 767 or 787.

Routes such as Nassau, Grand Cayman and Providenciales should be moved to Gatwick to complement their leisure/business network, which would release more slots out of Heathrow for further expansion.

It is about time they get back into the game! Whoever is in charge of their route planning network needs replacement!

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I seem to recall the BA fleet strategy at LGW was to take out the complexity of multiple a/c types thereby saving maintenance costs etc. Adding the B767/787 or the B747 even would seem a step backwards in that regard. It will, however, be interesting to see if BA decide to send some 787's down there as it may be an ideal a/c for some of their leisure routes in the future.

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NewBAexec, Air France is probably not the best airline to look at as a model for IAG strategy. It has, by some considerable distance, the highest net debt of any of the three European majors. It is now cutting routes and is probably about 10 years behind BA in terms of restructuring itself.

Network planning know what they are doing. Do not underestimate how much analysis goes into asset utilisation and route performance and the importance of the golden rule of airline economics: unprofitable growth destroys value.

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NewBAexec

BA have dropped their Detroit and Charlotte routes (even then disastrous USAirways venture). BA have also dropped their Gatwick Zurich route and I am sure that they also used to fly to CDG from there as well.

On the subject of Paris and Brussels if you are close to the airport you can be at Ashford International or Ebbsfeet International to pick up the Eurostar with door to door times very competitive to flying (and this is a person speaking that loves flying).

In my mind, having lived and worked in Jersey for a few years using LGW pretty much all the time it was a horrible airport to use. Not sure if that is still the case. I know its had a revamp but Fast Track Security was always a joke often taking nearly an hour to get to the lounge from the check-in desk.

Carribbean routes are very much leisure traffic with few requirements for connecting flights from within Europe. I would expect that most people from the UK.

As other people have mentioned, BA already have some spare slots that they could use and I am sure BA know what they will do when they acquire BMI.

It will be very interesting to see what BA do with BMI and I have yet to see anything about BMIbaby or BMI Regional.

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I believe the price BA will pay for BMI will come down somewhat if LH has still not offloaded BMI baby. About Regional, I thought this had already been agreed months ago, but maybe has fallen through?

Re routes to Detroit & Charlotte, well the Detroit economy is picking up to some extent, however this might be a route best started with an AA 757 as part of thier joint venture. Charlotte, not so sure about.

Going back to the posting by Hippocampus about AF not being the best example for IAG, I believe it is the European routes that are losing them lots of money, and the long haul not so bad, however perhaps starting new routes with high density 777-300s was not that well thought out. KLM however is doing rather well, and keeping the whole AF/KLM show on the road! And their long haul expansion has been very ambitious...

On Caribbean routes, I think the Nassau/Grand Cayman/Providenciales routes are kept at LHR as one or all of their runways cannot take a 777, and only have length for 767. I think 2/3 767s could go to Gatwick, and I understood from other threads last year that BA was ready to go ahead with that, before the BMI situation started to become a possibility.

I think leisure routes need to be approached with caution on capacity, but some new routes could be combined with exisiting to test the water. How about moving Port of Spain (currently from LGW via St Lucia), oil hub. moving to LHR and then having a 90 minute extension to Bogota.

Also with Malaysian joining Oneworld,a daily 777 to KL, codeshared with MH, and then a flight going to Jakarta 4 times a week, and Bali 3 times a week, I am sure could be successful. It could work this time verus 10 years ago as more fuel efficient aircraft, MH feed and more efficient scheduling of flights.

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@sparkyflyer, I think you are correct regarding the aircraft serving Grand Cayman and Providenciales as their runway lengths are just over 2100 mtrs and just over 2300 mtrs respectively. As both destinations are served via Nassau, perhaps there is also a weight limitation of either or both runways.

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Think it been said before, If i was BA I would cut the amount of routes that double up with BMI put bigger planes on the routes and fly less would be a big saving and free up slots for the far east that are lacking in the UK. Like the idea of Gatwick being the leisure hot spot, but Gatwick is getting better but is a pain to get from Surrey and Hampshire. Would mean less planes int he air the Greens would love that!

I think there need to be big rethink of LHR use of Terminals there maybe the handing over of the new LHR East being given to BA/BMI and One World partners alone with Aer lingus has they have deal with BA. I would still think BA would need T5 or could they use all of East.

If this would happen T3 could be nocked down, well think that for a other post.

BMI Regional think woud be good for BA to keep, due think BA made a bad move to sell BA Regional years ago. Flybe is ok but does not have the links with BA.

BMI baby if there is any good routes they should keep, low cost is very much leisure use so is very up and down. But saying that it far cheaper to fly BA than Easyjet and other. BA made a good job of GO prob was a bad move of them to sell to Easyjet.

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So if BA/Oneworld go in to LHR East and take it over in total and T3 is knocked down, where do *A go?

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LPPSKrisflyer LHR East is being built in two parts So BA/One world could move in to the new part What is on the site of the old T2 and the Star people could stay in T1 until T3 is rebuilt? Hoping BAA has has used the stacking that is used in T5 as LHR East (South) could be as big as T5 even bigger.

Lot of middle east Airlines are talking to the UK to get the third runway built, what would even better hole new Terminals could be built between the third and the 2nd runway.

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Regarding terminal moves, IAG has expressed a desire for the additioonal BA/bmi capacity to be accommodated in Terminal 3 with other Oneworld partners. BA will no doubt remain in Terminal 5 given the investment made in the terminal.

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Taken from BAA´s website

"Terminal 2 has been demolished and will be replaced with a brand new building. The new terminal will be the eventual home of the Star Alliance,..."

"We also have plans to replace the building(T1) completely around 2019..."

With regards to T3 there is no future investment mentioned. However, I have always understood that T3 is for all ONEWORLD airlines plus some non-alliance members, as is the case at T4 with Skyteam.
This situation could change with Iberia transfering to T5 and JAL was promised the possibility to transfer to T5 as the price to pay for it staying in ONEWORLD.

The question is, which airlines will transfer to the new T1 after 2019? Will Virgin Atlantic still be around to go there? Will the terminal be used for non-alliance airlines? Will there be any airlines outside alliances then? Will there be a fourth or even fifth alliance? - El Al is even now making tentative attempts to form a fourth alliance.

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Is that right transtaxman? El Al wanting to form an alliance? Do you know who with. I guess IR wont be on their list!

Does anyone out there know why BA do not have any "triangle routes", except for when there are operational aspects like civil unrest etc? This is a way of serving 2 destinations, and if not trying to get local traffic (2 way), keeping fuel costs as well as landing charges down.

Are there union agreements that prevent this?

Re BMI regional, could this be ideal to keep, to try and avoid the "London Airways" impression, as well as providing same brand feed.

Going back to NewBA and the suggestions about USA routes - Minneapolis, not sure if there is sufficient traffic for this, and it is a Delta hub, who have a good product. Detroit I already agreed with you, but maybe on a AA757, Charlotte - anyone know whow well the US Airways flight fills up? Fort Lauderdale I agree - easy 3-4 times a week on 767 and maybe as loads of cruise shipping traffic, 777.

I know Air Seychelles are leaving UK, do you think there would be enough traffic to do that flight on its own. Competition is now Etihad & Emirates. And Male in Maldives, could this be increased, and maybe with a 4 class 777? Are SriLankan leaving the route? And Colombo, I wonder if this could come back from LGW?

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@sparkyflyer,

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/el-al-plans-to-forge-new-alliance-with-three-initial-partners-346231/

While a number of airlines including El Al flew between Tehran and Tel Aviv during the times of the Shah, I think you are correct that IR wouldn't be on their list at this time!!

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transtraxman The plans for LHR East where done when BMI was not going to be part of BA, things have changed now, IAG will have 56% of the slots at LHR that is not adding in Oneworld. So big rethink is need as dont think they can fit all of Oneworld in T3 and T5, T5 as known will be BA only they are not willing or letting any one else use it. IB and JAL use of T5 is just some press crap.

So with 56% IAG (BA,BMI, IB) + oneworld LHR East seems the best option for them, like I said before LHR East (South exT1) could be used by T3 airlines and T3 rebuilt we known it all it need to be done and does not make sense that when Full LHR East (South and North are) built that the Star A will use a that spare 50% or or sightly higher. T2 Could be used until T3 is fixed.

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IB and JL moving to Terminal 5 is most certainly not "just some press crap".

BA moved its Madrid services to T5 last year. IB is expected to follow at some point once system/process issues are resolved as T5 was set up purely for BA processes. It may not happen but it there has definitely been a project to look into it.

Similarly, JAL was offered a move to T5 as part of a package to keep it in Oneworld when it was looking at moving alliances. BA and JAL are expected to set up a joint business to Japan and JAL moving to T5 is still on the agenda AFAIK.

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IB move into T5 is this year, believe it to be for summer 2012 ops.

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By looking at the BAA site(about Heathrow) again I find that there are two airlines that will transfer from T4 to T3 after they join oneworld - Kingfisher and Malaysia (MAS). TAM would also be on the list if it decides to join its merger partner LAN in oneworld.
BMI flights would (could??) be absorbed by T5 and T3.

However, the biggest movement is waiting to happen in the other direction 9 airlines of Star Alliance want to join their partners in T1 (from T3) but will have to wait till T2 is opened. United´s merger partner, Continental, is still in T4 so will want to transfer too (to T1).

With BMI moving out of T1 some transfers might well be possible but we know that it is not a question of simple arithmetic. Are the gates available for the types of aircraft flown and at the times wanted? Also off-stand parking is possible with passengers bussed out to the aircraft, but is there enough space for that near T1?

Things will not get sorted out completely until both T1 and T2 are rebuilt.

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Heard a rumour that the BA call centre ,apparently off-shore (never called it) will move back to the UK....apparently to Castle Donnington !!

With all rumours maybe a pinch of salt is required.......

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A simple switch would be for BMI flights to be moved to T3, and SK and TK flights moved to T1 to make room. All flights are narrowbodies so no gate issues. IB is moving to T5 and some non-aligned airlines can move to T4 as well.

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Donnington Hall is not at all suited to conversion to a call centre.

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With all rumours maybe a pinch of salt is required.......

Then the other rumour mentioned was that BA are not happy with their outsourced handling agents at regional (loath to call EDI regional) airports and will use BMI staff instead ,with their existing BMI (alot cheaper than BA) T & C's ....will also need to be taken with a rather large pinch of salt

This is also probably

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Hippocampus- 09/02/2012 14:29 GMT

¿Oprima uno para Español,no?

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time to bump and plead our own special favourites.......but who would want to start up Aberdeen and Edinburgh against BA and its strong position. Besides which there are plenty of alternatives if the flight is to/from London eg Stansted, Gatwick..........Only Heathrow if connections or West London is important to the origin/destination. Thats less than 50% of the total traffic, I guess.

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A hugely significant day for BA. A "roadmap" for integration should be published after completion on 20 April.

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Indeed. I bet BA thought that they had seen the last of T1. Looks like they will be running flights out of there again very soon. There's no room at T3 or T5 for all those ex BMI slots....

I guess when T2 opens, space will become available in T3; but that is two years away.

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Don't forget the buses, you could see a lot more of them in future.

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The simple solution to the terminal problem is SK and TK moving from T3 to T1, and then BMI flights can move into T3.

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Doesn't BD have a lot more flights?

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So how many slots are BA gaining is it 42 minus 14 or 56 minus 14?

The thing I am most concerned about is that there is not enough long-haul aircraft even if the routes are started in about a year's time or more. They will only just be getting the first 787 and A380 then. What to do?!! A330s? (The current order to delivery time is averaging 7 years)

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Lufthansa have taken a lot of BMI slots over the years for their various brands, so a few Star airlines moving out of T3 would do it.

I think BA should abandon Gatwick, and move all long haul and certain short haul flights to Heathrow. Routes that aren't moved can be taken over by flybe.

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Maybe they will short term lease some 767's or 777's . Theee plenty of airlines still cutting back.

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It's 56 minus 14 Hengli. So 42.

If no other carriers use the slots for the routes provided they will revert back to BA.

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BA also have three 747s still in storage, plus two more 777-300s arriving in the next few months.

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The market for wide-body aircraft is pretty hot at the moment and I can't imagine that leasing 767s would be a good option because they are just so expensive to operate, might as well get a few of Virgin's A340s!

As I see it, the only aircraft really on the market for short-term lease are A340s, 767s and 747s. None of these aircraft are economical enough to make new routes (particularly to non-premium, emerging destinations) economical. Just the cost of fitting-out these aircraft is mind-boggling. The best aircraft that could possibly be used right now, I think is the A330 because they are cheap, plentiful and economic. Perhaps they could extend the leases of BMI's ones and find some other ones elsewhere, perhaps Cathay and Qatar, who are both disposing of their A330s?

Also, moving routes from Gatwick is quite simply not feasible because Gatwick at present caters to quite a different market that is primarily low-cost, leisure or premium-leisure orientated. While some routes would be more popular from Heathrow, it is simply a waste of good slots!

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BA will not be leasing long haul aircraft as a stop gap measure.

New routes to Asia and The Americas will only come when the 787s come online in 2013 (and most likely they will be used on some of the shorter East Coast routes initially).

The long haul expansion touted by IAG will a gradual process over the next five years. It will not happen overnight, and I'd expect quite a few extra AMS rotations in the interim!

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The 767 has got the lowest trip cost of any wide body airliner, so are not 'just so expensive' to operate, and would be perfect for starting new routes.

BA would save a lot of money by leaving Gatwick regardless of the routes flown, but flybe can takeover the lowest yield ones.

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I do Not see 330's in anything but very near future. They would add
Complexity to maintenance and crew training, they are Not generally liked by passengers and could damage BA brand image in new markets. I think some 747's will come back, some european 767's will move across and we may see some 763's or 764's short leased if certain airlines financial woes continue.. Whether they will be upgraded to latest cabin styles or tidied ip with cascaded fittings, I leave to you.
I think BA will leave Gatwick leaving an allied brand their for certain european boliday flights. This will be medium term not short term.

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If BA will only be introducing new long-haul routes as per plan A of its fleet growth plan, what will it do to fill the slots? If it doesn't use them, they will get confiscated...

Those are all good points about the 767s guys, because technically the euro configuration 767s cover the same range as A320s right? So, couldn't BA just increase A320 fleet utilisation to transfer the routes to narrowbody aircraft?

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At the end of the day changes to the route network will occur over years not months.

If BA does not want to lose its 42 new slots it needs to operate them 80% of days. Thats 42 flights per day. There is no way we are going to be see the launch of 42 new daily long haul flights immediately.

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I believe the etops are different. Not an expert on BA fleet, perhaps Others know. All business jets to US are one thing not sure Chinese would choose a BA 320 over a widebodied Chinese carrier.

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They said Belfast is back and I think here will be an effort to reassure domestic flyers in the short term.

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Rich, I was referring to using A320s to Europe/North Africa/Israel, like Euro 767s (when appropriately used, not randomly slung on Jeddah routes, etc.), not China. Easyjet use A320s to Amman in Jordan.

So Rfergurson, will BA be launches 42 sets of short-haul flights once BMI has been buried, starting from Autumn?

Also, does anyone actually know about BA fleet utilisation?

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BA do of course need to operate all their new slots as soon as they get them, which is one reason I think they should move some flights from Gatwick. BA will probably keep some of the BMI routes as well.

BA fly wide body planes on short haul European routes for capacity and cargo. They could increase frequency with smaller planes to use up more slots, but then they cannot carry cargo.

BA could keep the BMI A330s and put them on short haul in place of the 767s. They can be flown by the same pilots as A320s and can take full size cargo containers, whereas the 767 can't.

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RichHI1 - 30/03/2012 21:31 GMT May I ask where you get the information from that the A330 is generally not like by passengers from?

IMO you couldn't be more wrong, it's my favourite plane by a huge margin, so quiet and pleasant to travel on. CX report it's the most popular aircarft in their fleet from a passenger perspective.

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This is hilarious:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/9177356/British-Airways-eyes-Asian-routes-after-owner-IAG-given-green-light-to-buy-bmi.html

Willie Walsh is being forced to offer Virgin Atlantic feeder traffic but uses this swipe to inform Sir Branson that his doing so will only bring dishonour. Clever!

"However, in a side swipe at his rival, Mr Walsh said: "Quite honestly I think it must be almost humiliating for Branson and Virgin to have to rely on the British Airways network to feed traffic into their operations at Heathrow."

WW is way more intelligent than I thought, this is a very clever psychological tactic to deprive VS of feeder traffic.

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Virgin Atlantic needs to join an alliance and get feeder traffic off of them. Star Alliance is the perfect choice as there are far more flights to LHR from their carriers than there are from Skyteam carriers, plus there are 2 Skyteam hubs very close to LHR.

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CXDiamond, comments based on conversations with friends/acquaintances in Marketing with some foreign carriers in Latin America and Asia. It appears that passengers are highly motivated by A380, B787 as they are new and B777 are also seen as positive. In the narrowbody class Airbus seem to have it in their favour with the A318-321 series. The jury s out how neo and the next generations from Boeing and Airbus will compete.
Should stress this was consumer reaction and airline adoption for A330 has been good though it effectively finished the A340.

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If Virgin join star could it be feasable that LH breand up a domestic feeder akin to Af cityjet and allocate some of their slots to Uk domestic. As I have said earlier the airline industry is rapidly evolving into a very limited choice based on Alliance super hubs aligned to old national carrier bias! The exception to this is the gulf carriers with their rather perplexing financial models that only work if your base airport. Is located near a vast desert!

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My view is the joining of the Virgin FFP's which just happened is a precursor to joining Sky Team. Virgin fits better there than *A. Delta has limited Uk routes and just shut Miami, ANA would compete to NRT.
Other option which could happen is Virgin get major investor from other overseas carrier.

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I've read somewhere in the last few days that Virgin are getting ready to integrate their brand on a global scale with a single FFP. In Australia they are ever more tightly linked to SIA and NZ and of course SIA still own 49% though they may wish they didn't.

I agree that VS would have more to offer SkyTeam but they do seem to be growing closer to *A.

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All true, though I have heard some say that SQ is closer to VS than it is to *A. Many Asian carriers operate in a more independent way in their alliances.

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I don't see any tie-up happening between Virgin and Lufthansa. Virgin had been making noises about a three way deal between Lufthansa, bmi and Virgin ever since Lufthansa bought bmi and absolutely nothing came of it.

They have also been in discussions about joining SkyTeam and, again, nothing has come of it.

If Virgin wants to join an alliance it has to be prepared to do so on the alliance's terms, which I think is part of the problem for them.

Meanwhile, Willie Walsh has called on Virgin to make good on its claim that it would launch services to Scotland:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/30/iag-ba-takeover-bmi-branson

"Walsh challenged Virgin, which had warned that domestic services would be lost in a BA-bmi merger, to step in. He said Branson's airline, when still hoping to win bmi for itself, had pledged to Scottish politicians it would operate such flights. "I would expect Virgin to honour the commitments they have made. They have said they would start flights to Scotland. They now have the ideal opportunity.""

Virgin is now very isolated and it is of their own making. Like the transatlantic anti-trust immunity between BA and American, everyone expected it to be approved and Virgin's opposition was futile and no-one took much notice of it.

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While I have no sympathy with Branson, I was always taught to be magnanimous in victory. Walsh on the other hand appears to be glorying in slaughter this morning. How unpleasant.

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I would suggest that the biggest threat and paradoxically, what might be Willie's long term objective is to pulling totally out of the domestic market. As the gulf carriers (Etihad@EDI)and european carriers offering a very competive and attractive option from regional airports. This again allows BA to concentrate exclusively on the SE market and release more slots for long haul!

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LPPS I disagree. Virgin had blown a hell of a lot of hot air during this takeover about things that had nothing to do with it. 'BA would have a monopoly on London - Scotland routes' etc etc. They wanted to be airline consumer advocate for the people. Then perhaps what they should have done is taken back a few of the slots they have leased out to other airlines and started flights to Scotland if they were so concerned about the Scotish travelling public.

'Glorying in slaughter this morning. How unpleasant'. Indeed! I can still remember not too long ago the delight Virgin took in shopping BA to the competition authorities when BA and Virgin were indulging in some price collusion. Oh how Virgin basked in the glory of the press announcing the massive fine to BA while they got immunity. They take a side swipe at BA every opportunity they get.

I don't really see WW as glorying in slaughter. I more see it as 'ok virgin, youve given all this hot air about what you WILL do so now lets see it'. For example, from todays Guardian Observer:
- Seven of the relinquished Heathrow slots must be sold to operators providing flights to Edinburgh and Aberdeen. Walsh challenged Virgin, which had warned that domestic services would be lost in a BA-bmi merger, to step in. He said Branson's airline, when still hoping to win bmi for itself, had pledged to Scottish politicians it would operate such flights. "I would expect Virgin to honour the commitments they have made. They have said they would start flights to Scotland. They now have the ideal opportunity."-

I wonder how many of the Scottish travelling public remember SRB's commitment to launch GLA-JFK flights when BA pulled of the route....and that was over ten years ago. A Virgin aircraft never left the runway.

And that is Virgin and SRB's problem. They have big mouths and think everyone else has short memories. I have been praying for the day that BA would finally have a chairman that would stand up to them and take them on in the public doman. Something BA had previously always been to 'above' to comtemplate.

Bring it on I say.

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I don't think BA would entirely pull out of the domestic market, but I'd expect mainline not to be operating these routes in five years from now.

BA owns 15% of flybe, has outsourced LCY flights to BA Cityflyer and is trialling Iberia Express LCC model in Spain, and any of those would be a cost-effective model for domestic and some shorthaul flights.

APD is a key driver of cost, as well as slots. So there's plenty of issues to be resolved before the right path becomes clear.

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Perhaps I'm all too English and don't like the way Walsh is behaving. I agree about Branson over the years, more than enough hot air and false promises and I've been critical of him for that. Remember 4engines4longhaul and now they fly A330s on the Atlantic? There are lots of examples - separate thread anyone??

I doubt VS will ever operate on the Scottish routes and they could have done it before now by taking back their leased slots.

Surely IAG is trialing Iberia Express rather than BA?

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Just thinking about which airlines will bid for the slots:

Edinburgh/Aberdeen: BMI Regional (?), Flybe
Nice: Air France (new base remember)
Cairo: Egyptair
Moscow: Aeroflot, S7 (This route is listed as one of the five, which means that more slots will be given, not just to Transaero)
Riyadh: Saudi, Nas Air (unlikely)

There is also a (very remote) possibility that Gulf airlines may use this as an opportunity to get some fifth-freedom routes to London, as there may be cost advantages compared to obtaining slots normally.

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I think there will be a service increase to Madrid, I think it possible Latam will apply for some slots, brasilia, fortaleza, lima and santiago (possibly a double routing ) is possible and I also think one should keep anneye on Hainan who are getting very cosy with AA.

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The slots I was referring to are the ones that BA has to give-up in order for the merger to get permission.

Do you think BA will lease the slots to Latam, Hainan, etc.?

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The sad decline of BMI has been quite remarkable given it was such an innovative carrier from the 1980s on. Anyone who travelled on the BA shuttle services has reason to be grateful to BMI; however, over the last ten years it lost its way partly due to the growth in the low cost carriers and could not compete with BA's club Europe product. Looking forward, one hopes to see more services to Asia, Africa and Latin America. It will be good to have BA back into Belfast but I suspect Dublin will go given BA's relationship with EI.

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Hengli it would not surprise me. BA service is limited to CHina and Latin America and Iberia has holes in it's LAtin American coverage.

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I dont know how to start a new topic but I have been reading VK's old flyer posts before he was barred and i think most liked it when he didnt respond here. Mr Otley - why can you not follow flyer talk and bar vk - i am an avid support of ba but krug creates most distractions and upset on this website andt devalues the whole forum> please can you follow flyer talk so it can be a proper business forum.

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@ Hengli123 - 31/03/2012 13:22 GMT

I think you made an interesting point:

"There is also a (very remote) possibility that Gulf airlines may use this as an opportunity to get some fifth-freedom routes to London, as there may be cost advantages compared to obtaining slots normally."

I think they could apply for the slots but will EU or respective countries grant the Gulf airlines local traffic rights for intra EU sectors (eg LHR-NCE)? I don't think the Gulf airlines will get the local traffic rights for intra EU sectors.

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CXDiamond, done a bit of follow up on A330 question. Opinions have put forward a possibly hypothesis. Boeing traditionally marketed to airlines not passengers (thiugh 747 did have big PR back on launch in 1960's). Airbus broke the mould with Minibus series and A380 marketing extensively to passengers. A330 did not offer a passenger syep change in experience crom A340 and was sold to airlines on savings not really passenger experience. This might explain consumer expressed preferences for the latter aircraft, rather than a dislike of the A330 experience. This is however supposition on my part based on asides and informal comments. No airline will tell uou any plane they own is less than the passenger favourite.

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Interesting point RichHI1, thank you for making it. I can certainly remember a lot of A340 marketing as it was launched mostly focussed on the quiet cabin and of course compared to anything else that was around at the time, it was very quiet. Fortunately others are now stepping up to the mark in that regard and it's no longer unique.

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Didnt many airlines also promote the config in economy of the A330? 2 x 4 x 2 is certainly preferable to 3 x 4 x 3.

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Indeed they did along with 2-2-2 in C rather than 2-3-2 on Boeings guaranteeing all an aisle or window seat. 1-2-1 in F became a norm too although that had been around on the 744 in some configs. On the 777 2-2-2 was still quite normal in F, imagine that today!

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I love the peace of 121 and the ease of aisle acces. I do however miss talking to some very interesting people in the old Twin seat days. The big win is flat beds don't cut off your circulation like the old AA and JL First did. Flown many miles on TAM A330 in first before they bought 777's ( and forgot to order first class seats ( took them a while to reconfigure and fix that one :-))

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It would appear that 1200 BMI jobs are going to be cut by BA/IAG

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17693074

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At least it looks like the front line staff at LHR are safe, they are some of the best in the business so that's good news. Maybe some of the excellent cabin crew skills will rub off on their new colleagues.

While I'm sorry for the people at Donnington Hall, I can't help but feel that if jobs had to go it was from there that they are justified. These are some of the people who have led BD on a mad rollercoaster ride for the last ten years which turned a profitable airline in to a disaster.

If there is any justice, SMB also ought to be hanging his head in shame.

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I'm also hoping that BA take notice of their London Airway's image that alot of us have here in Scotland and probably the same in Manchester,Newcastle etc . Cancel the contract with Servisair and use the excellent BMI staff as in-house proper BA staff....Not likely though !!!

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I think there's more chance of each of those airports getting a second runway for flying pigs to land on than BA reintroducing their own ground handling!

Of course the second runway could also be used for Virgin's domestic services as I think pigs will fly first.

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I like it - AeroPuerco, the new service from IAG.

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I also agree that Castle Donnington staff are the ones responsible for the £3 million/week loss that has crippled the operations.

I hope that unlike just about every other deal with failing companies (takeovers, liquidation included) the executives will not end up with huge bonuses. I also hope that the directors will be banned.

Unfortunately, the London Airways image of BA is just being set in stone- the PR states that it is the staff in regional airports that are likely to be fired as well.

I guess 1500 is better than none to a great extent.

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LeTigre regrettable as it is, directors are banned for malfeasance not incompetence. On the plus side, respecting this principle keeps UK unemployment numbers down. If only shareholders had more power...

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Here lies BMI

RIP

A slow death caused by neglect and lack of vision by Castle Donnington and Frankfurt

I shall personally miss you and thank you for getting me home to my family on more occasions that I can remember when your new owner just gave up !

Most of all thanks to all the staff that brought a smile to my face even on days when they clearly were stressed ,including many days of the last uncertain months!

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Yup, sad day for BMI and also for UK aviation. There does seem to be a change in the industry of late that is affecting all players. Ryanair are having a hard time North of the border and sound like they could be reducing services. On the one hand the travelling public want lower fares, whilst the government wants an increase in revenue from taxes and duty. Airlines then get hit with hikes in fuel prices, plus wage bills. Something has to give. If we really want mass transit at an affordable price, we need to slash taxation and operate using a fuel system that is not subject to the ever increasing spiral that oil based ones seem to maintain. The alternative is a recognition that air travel is a luxury that will be outside of the reach of many. From a purely logical standpoint, the current position is unsustainable.

In the equation of costs vs price vs product, it is a certainty that if costs are increasing and price cannot be put up to compensate, then the only option is a dilution in product offering (assuming that there are no productivity savings that can be made) . The snag with this is that a diluted product will see a reduction in demand which means reduced income, lower profits etc...

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I noticed today BA is adding new flights LHR-ARN-LHR for the Winter schedule (from 28OCT12). Possibly using slots from BD.

BA 774 LHR ARN 0615-0945
BA 775 ARN LHR 1045-1225

Has anybody noticed additional flights on other routes?

Sorry if this has already been mentioned/discussed in other threads.

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There are now 5 flights per day to Hamburg, up from 4.

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I was talking to some BD staff in the lounge yesterday. They accept that BA will take over BD but they are not looking forward to it one bit. They believe at present that they are able to offer some degree of personal service to passengers but they see their peers at BA as being disinterested in their jobs and in the main marking time and doing as little as possible. They see themselves being overwhelmed by the BA do as little as possible culture and the people I spoke to are not sure how long they will stay.

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Looks like BA have already started updating their inventory based on the comments earlier from this thread.

I generally find this website useful as it always displays route changes in a factual and accurate manner, generally quite fast:

http://airlineroute.net/

Can't wait for tomorrow's announcement, though I guess it's a bit early to hope for new long-haul services. Was reading an article on airlineroute earlier about Lufthansa service changes and realised that they not only serve way more good destinations than BA from Frankfurt but increasingly, Munich as well. LH now fly to Incheon and Busan from Munich, which are very sensible routes.

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Flying TXL-LHR on Wednesday I had a similar conversation with the BD crew to one recorded above.

They are glad the uncertainty is over but not looking forward to working for a big company where they see a lot of institutionalised, lazy staff who don't work to improve anything. They were very glad that if there had to be a takeover it is BA rather than VS but they have been very happy working as part of the LH group and feel that if there had been further integration and more direct management from Cologne and the Hall had been closed a long time ago they would have been far more successful.

I have wondered why LH did not attempt a more direct approach at management, it was obvious to almost everyone where the problems were with BD and they certainly never were on the front line where the staff remain to this day something special.

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This just posted on the BA website:

http://www.britishairways.com/travel/bmi-information-news-hub/public/en_gb

As a regular traveller to Dublin I'm hopeful that I can start earning Avios and BAEC Tier Points but this is still not clear

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I hope that with all these great comments and thoughts of which BA is the only benefactor,that few BA senior officials will take some time to read and implement.

Do they really care?

I do not think so!

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Business Traveller has been sent a copy of the communication being sent out to Diamond Club members today, with more details on what existing members will be offered within BA's Executive Club scheme:

http://www.businesstraveller.com/news/diamond-club-and-avios-the-details

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Anyone know what happens to the LHR - DUB route (the busiest intra-European). Does BA start fling again in direct competition with EI? And if not, fare increase no doubt!!!

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In a time when airlines are not always known for putting loyal passengers first, it does seem BA / IAG, BD and LH have acted very well here and should be congratulated. The opportunity to nickel and dime has been passed over in favour of building continued loyalty. Easy to always complain but I think we should give all parties kudos for this.

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RichHI1: I agree 100%.

I was told that the reason for the rapid severence between LH & BD is to do with competition authorities saying BD could not be aligned to both carriers at any point. Seems logical but I'm not sure if it's true.

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http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/iag-completes-bmi-deal-but-with-unwanted-units-370932/

Seems like a new Asian route is imminent, so who would like to bet?

I say KUL first followed by ICN.

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A good question, CaptainGaz.

I suggested to the CEO of Aer Lingus that this would be an ideal opportunity to focus on DUB-LHR and target former Gold Circle Club members who may have migrated to BMI (as I did) and current Diamnd Club members who might be very interested in an incentive to return to Aer Lingus.

My idea must be completely barmy because I didn't even receive an acknowledgement, let alone a reply.

Could it be that Aer Lingus is doing so well that it doesn't need to to bother doing anything to attract long term customers on this busy route?

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Going back to AndyinSweden and Bucksnet, nice to see BA using all these new slots allowing them to start new routes to key, booming destinations in Asia, Africa and South America, to. . . . . Germany and Sweden.

Quite unbelievable, but it being BA, sadly believeable.

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Always think Aer Lingus is missing a trick with their pre -boarding US customs and Immigration checks at DUB...If the fares were competitive ,chuck in a free pint of Guiness at DUB whilst transiting then I would definately consider availing !! Avoiding the Homeland security on their home turf is a USP for Aer Lingus !!

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Canucklad,

the Aer Lingus Gold Circle lounge is close to the departure gates and US Customs. Its open to non members for 25euro.

Well worth the money, but as far as I can remember, the Guinness is cans only!

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Sorry mate ...have to be the airport bar....Guiness from a can when you can get it on draught...are you mad.....althugh i could be tempted to by the jamiesons or Bushmills !!!

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I hear you, canucklad...its like comparing a beefburger to fillet steak!

Pat

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I have a horrible confession to make to you Pat------back here in Scotland I do prefer ........................." Cold Guiness" to normal Guiness ... Back to the thread, could this be an opportunity to use aircraft and crew to develop new routes from EDI rather than being LHR centric. what comes to mind immiedately is BRU or FRA giving LH a bit of competition!

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Short of this becoming a Celtic Alcoholics Anonymous debate ( I'm from Scotland before anyone starts haha !), BD regional and bmibaby should be bought by a private investor and rebranded as British Midland Airways and maybe keep some of the diamonds shining ?! Just a thought. Shame to lose such a vital feeder service.

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Sounds good in principle but you can bet your bottom dollar that BA will also have purchased the rights to all things BMI including the Diamond brand etc...They did the same with BCAL as did Air Canada with CP Air.. I presume it stops somebody doing exactly what you proposed. In these days of yearning for the past a a Scottish airline re-emerging with the BCAL name would have an immiedate Brand awareness advantage from the start.

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IT systems integration of airport and operational systems is a major task. The first steps made in selling systems such as ba.com and in GDS. It will take time , possibly some months to separate bmi from their current IT suppliers (not just one) and move to BA systems with ticketing and DCS priorities.

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Belfast is safe hoping they keep Dublin.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-17857534

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"The first steps made in selling systems such as ba.com and in GDS."

I think the problems will be internal politics. Both carriers use the same GDS for distribution (Amadeus) and (from memory) I believe they both use Amadeus/Altea for inventory and DCS, so integraton should, on a technical level, be a relatively easy task.

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I was thrilled yesterday when recieving an email from BA revealing combined reservations online.
I was shocked to see a very expensive business fare form AMM-ORD with flights on RJ(code share with BA) connecting in LHR with AA !
BD operates out of AMM very impracical unreasonably priced limited connections to North America via LHR.

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